THE TIMES POLL : Residents Balk When Asked to Pay for ‘3 Strikes’

Californians overwhelmingly favor locking up more felons for longer terms, but many do not want to pay higher taxes or cut popular programs to raise the money needed to finance a prison building boom, a Los Angeles Times Poll has found.

State residents surveyed support the new “three strikes” sentencing law by nearly a 3-1 margin. But even with that law, which requires terms of 25 years to life in prison for many three-time offenders, more than half of the poll’s respondents said California’s criminal justice statutes remain too lenient.

One tough proposal that wins great favor: putting first-time rapists in prison for life without the possibility of parole. Stricter gun controls also have strong support among the public, the poll found.

The Times survey also produced evidence that the public’s fears about crime may be influenced more by what they hear from podium-pounding politicians and sensational news accounts than by events in their own lives.

Although half cited crime as one of the state’s two most important concerns, and a majority said their area has a serious crime problem, three out of four said they feel safe in their community.

“This is something that’s not driven by personal experience as much as by what people perceive is happening to others,” said John Brennan, director of the Times Poll. “This is a media-generated set of concerns.”

The poll surveyed 1,608 Californians, including 1,211 registered voters, over four days ending Tuesday. The margin of sampling error is 3 points in either direction.

The survey found that concerns about crime--whatever may be driving them--are at record highs, Brennan said.

In the last year, the proportion of people who cite crime and gangs as the state’s top problem has nearly tripled, from 10% in March, 1993, to 27% today.

Nearly half of those surveyed in the most recent poll--49%--said crime was one of the state’s two most pressing concerns. The same number named the economy.

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The worry about crime was reflected in the huge majority that favored the “three strikes” sentencing law passed by the Legislature last month and signed by Gov. Pete Wilson. A nearly identical measure will appear on the November ballot.

The poll asked Californians for their opinion about the law as a whole and about three of its parts. Respondents also were asked about the measure’s potential costs and how to pay for them.

Overall, the poll found, the “three strikes” law is favored by 65% of state residents and opposed by 21%. Support for the statute is strong in all major demographic groups except for blacks. Among ethnic groups, 68% of whites favor the measure, 59% of Latinos support it and blacks are divided, with 45% in support and 42% opposed.

The most popular of the three provisions about which the poll inquired was a “truth in sentencing” element that will require inmates sentenced under the law to serve at least 80% of their terms. Before the law passed, inmates could cut their terms in half with credits earned for good behavior and for working in prison. By a margin of 85% to 12%, respondents favored curtailing those credits.

Also very popular, by a 73% to 22% margin, is the central element of the law, which requires those convicted of any felony after committing two serious or violent felonies to be sentenced to 25 years to life in prison.

Still popular, but slightly less so, is the provision to allow crimes committed by juveniles to count as strikes on their record even if the youths are tried without a jury in Juvenile Court. That provision is favored by 62% and opposed by 33%.

The overwhelming support for “three strikes” comes even though the public is well aware of its potential costs. Nearly three out of four people in the survey said they believed a “substantial amount of extra revenue” will be needed to build prisons to house the inmates for longer terms.

Questioned further, however, many supporters of the measure seemed to have second thoughts.

Although 68% said the law would be effective in reducing crime, only half of all respondents said the potential benefit was worth the added cost. About four in 10 said the money should be spent instead on other forms of crime prevention.

Even a sizable portion of those who said they supported the law--more than one in four--said the money needed for “three strikes” would be better spent elsewhere.

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There was no consensus on how to pay for the new prisons and the cost of operating them. About 25% chose bonds, or borrowing, while 21% chose tax increases and 21% cited cuts in social programs.

Asked more specifically about taxes, nearly half said they would be willing to pay higher levies to finance the sentencing law, but most of these people were willing to pay only a modest amount. Only about 9% would be willing to pay $200 or more in additional annual taxes.

One program that has been cut deeply in the past few years and might suffer some more under the “three strikes” law--higher education--won big support from the public. More than seven in 10 respondents said they would be unwilling to cut higher education to pay for more prisons.

The public is ambivalent about the need to build more prisons. Although a large majority, through its support of the “three strikes” law, endorses the idea, fewer want a new prison built near them. Fewer than four in 10 respondents said they would support a prison in their community; 57% were opposed.

The poll also showed Californians are in no mood to quit tinkering with the crime laws simply because the strict new sentencing provisions are on the books.

More than half--55%--said the state’s laws are still too lenient. About one-third said they were adequate and only 6% said the laws were too tough.

The poll asked about a proposal to imprison first-time rapists and many child molesters for life without possibility of parole. That proposal, which has been pitched by Wilson with increasing fervor in recent days, was supported by 62% and opposed by 33%.

Two out of three--66%--said California’s gun control laws should be more strict, and only 7% said they should be less strict. About one-fourth (23%) said the gun laws were about right.

The political implications of this election-year sentiment for a crackdown on crime are not clear. Respondents were split on which major party was better suited to handle the crime issue--32% for Republicans, 30% for Democrats.

Although a large plurality of the voters polled said Wilson was the best qualified among the four major candidates to handle the issue, nearly half said his proposals on the issue have had no effect on their view of the governor.

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll interviewed 1,608 California adults by telephone from March 26 through Tuesday. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the state. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and non-listed numbers could be contacted. Interviewing was conducted in English and Spanish. Results were weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age and education. The margin of sampling error for the total sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points. For certain other subgroups the error margin may vary. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.

THE TIMES POLL: Concern Over Crime Increases

Crime has surged as an issue with Californians, but most still feel safe in their own communities. The new “three strikes” law is popular, though support for the budget cuts, tax hikes and new prisons it may bring is limited.

* Percentage who say crime/gangs are the most important problem facing California today. Mar., ‘94: 27% Oct., ‘93: 18% Sept., ‘93: 16% Mar., ‘93: 10% May., ‘92: 9% May., ‘91: 11%

* When it comes to the threat of crime, how safe do you feel in your community? Safe: 75% Unsafe 25%

THREE STRIKES AND YOU’RE OUT

* Do you favor or oppose the “Three Strikes and You’re Out” law? Favor: 65% Oppose: 21% Don’t know: 14%

* Would you be willing or unwilling to accept a tax increase to fund the new prisons needed under the “three strikes” law? Willing: 47% Unwilling: 42% Don’t know: 11%

* Would you be willing or unwilling to accept cuts in the state higher education budget in order to fund the new prisons needed under the “three strikes” law? Willing: 22% Unwilling: 72% Don’t know: 6%

* Would you favor a state prison in your community? Favor: 37% Oppose: 57% Don’t know: 6%

Source: Los Angeles Times Poll of California