CALIFORNIA ELECTIONS / GOVERNOR : Field Poll Finds 30% of GOP Voters Favor Unz

Ron Unz, the 32-year-old computer magnate who has waged a well-funded insurgent campaign against his party’s incumbent governor, Pete Wilson, found himself at the center of the state’s political universe Wednesday. And he was happy to be there.

The night before, the traditionally influential Field Poll showed Unz winning the support of 30% of the state’s registered Republican voters, while a relatively paltry 47% backed Wilson. That a virtual unknown could come within shooting range of the incumbent governor put Unz in a celebratory mood.

“What does it say about Pete Wilson that he’s now below 50% and in a tighter race with me than John Garamendi is with Kathleen Brown, when nobody heard of me five weeks ago?” Unz asked reporters after a speech in El Segundo.

“If Pete Wilson can’t even win a Republican primary at this stage with a convincing percentage against a political unknown like me, I think it says he’s in terrible shape in November,” Unz added.

If the news struck a glancing blow at the Wilson campaign operation, it could not be discerned. The collective upper lip remained stiff, as campaign officials took pains to point out that the same poll showed Wilson gaining a slight bit of ground against Democratic front-runner Kathleen Brown in projected November matchups.

“The Field Poll number just doesn’t jibe with any other poll we’ve seen,” said spokesman Dan Schnur, who forwarded three smaller polls that show Unz with significantly less support. “But even if it is accurate, it’s not impacting the general election race at all. We’re almost even with Kathleen Brown in a general election matchup and that’s the one that counts.”

In truth, almost all candidates except Democratic state Sen. Tom Hayden--who was running well behind everyone in all matchups--had something to crow about Wednesday. At this stage of the campaign, as voters are just beginning to sit up and take notice, perception is everything. And so more than a few attempts at perceptual spin were in order:

* The Brown campaign trumpeted its glee at Field Poll results that showed the state treasurer 19 points ahead of Insurance Commissioner Garamendi in prospective primary balloting, with a 41%-22% margin. It ignored a smaller poll that showed the gap at 10 points. And it chortled, through press secretary John Whitehurst, at Unz’s Field Poll showing against Wilson. “It’s clear that a big segment of Republicans want change and are willing to take a gamble on a 32-year-old to say to Gov. Wilson that ‘we want change,’ ” he said.

* The Wilson campaign set its sights on the Field Poll’s general election matchup that showed Brown defeating Wilson, 50% to 42%, a slightly smaller gap than in the last such survey, and statistically close to a dead heat. Moreover, Wilson aides noted, Brown had held a 23-point lead over Wilson one year ago. “Dead even is a lot more fun for us coming up than it is for her coming down,” Schnur said.

* The Garamendi campaign chose to emphasize a smaller poll, done for a consortium of newspapers and television stations in the state, which showed Brown with a 32%-22% lead over him in the primary. “This actually is very consistent with what we believe to be the case,” said Garamendi campaign manager Darry Sragow, whose organization has not done independent polling. “We clearly have a shot at it.” He also noted that the Field Poll showed Garamendi beating Wilson by a larger margin than Brown, 13 points to 8 points.

* Unz said the Field Poll results corroborate his campaign’s polling, which he said showed a 15%-20% bump in his support in the wake of a $1-million television advertising campaign. “Over half of the Republicans in California have already made up their minds that they don’t want four more years of Pete Wilson,” he said. “What they haven’t decided is whether they want to vote for me instead, and I think I can get those undecideds.”

The Silicon Valley-based entrepreneur said he is deciding whether to flood the airwaves with a new set of ads that would reinforce the radio spots still running. His first set of television commercials scored Wilson on a number of fronts, from his vote for tax increases to the failure of the National Guard to quickly quell the 1992 Los Angeles riots.

With his out-of-nowhere strategy, Unz has positioned himself against Wilson much as Republican presidential candidate Patrick J. Buchanan did against incumbent President George Bush in 1992: as the repository for his party’s internal dissatisfaction with the incumbent.

Like Buchanan did to Bush, Unz has essentially been keeping Wilson’s substantial political wounds fresh, reminding voters why they have had a low opinion of the incumbent. Buchanan did that to virtual perfection in the 1992 New Hampshire primary, when he won 37% of the vote in a state that four years earlier had given Bush a huge victory.

Weeks ago, Wilson aide Schnur predicted that Unz could score in the 25%-30% range, but he disputed the notion that the criticisms leveled by Unz would help a Democrat win in November.

“It’s partly an anti-incumbent vote, but it’s more an expression of the frustration that people have who have dealt with the economic situation in the last few years,” Schnur said. “But the economy is recovering, people are more enthused about their futures, and it’s going to be much more difficult for a challenger, either in the primary or general election, to capitalize on those emotions over the duration of the election.”

If Unz cannot move closer to Wilson by Election Day, the lasting impact of the Field Poll for Wilson will be the ignominy of winning the support of only half of his party just three weeks from Election Day.

Brown’s spokesman Whitehurst said political consultants frequently hear warning bells when an incumbent registers in the low 60s or high 50s in head-to-head polls, far higher numbers than Wilson is demonstrating. “He’s at panic,” Whitehurst said of Wilson.

In other campaign news, the three Democratic campaigns came to an agreement that may allow the May 24 television debate to be aired in Southern California. However, it was unclear whether any Los Angeles stations would agree to schedule the debate.

The other two debates are to be held in Sacramento on May 23, and in Los Angeles on May 25. The latter will be on the Michael Jackson radio show.