Intriguing Game of TV Roulette

The competitive matchups disclosed by ABC, CBS, NBC and Fox in their recently announced fall schedules are more intriguing than usual, from the frontline battle of programs to the long-range ambitions mapped out in executive suites.

For viewers, who will see 30 freshman series in the new prime-time lineups--15 dramas, 13 comedies, one newsmagazine and “The ABC Family Movie”--several matchups are sure to draw major attention:

* NBC is risking its top new series of this season, “Frasier,” by pulling it from its cozy post-”Seinfeld” slot on Thursdays and sending it into head-to-head competition with ABC’s “Roseanne,” one of the best and most-established comedies on TV.

While NBC may be thinking that the public is wearying of the seemingly never-ending public adventures of ABC star Roseanne Arnold, there is also the possibility that her potent series will send “Frasier” into a ratings tailspin that could severely affect its momentum.

* On Sundays, all eyes will be on Fox’s newly acquired National Football League games--swiped from CBS--and how their lead-in will affect the tune-in for this highly watched night of TV, prized by advertisers and networks.

With CBS reeling from a one-two punch by Fox, which also this week swiped eight of its key stations in a daring raid that brought it 12 new affiliates overall, the thing to watch is whether--and how--the football games begin to have an impact on CBS’ audience domination on Sundays with “60 Minutes” and “Murder, She Wrote.”

Both long-running CBS series have benefited in the past from the football lead-in. And although the games only run until midseason, the impetus they provide for the network’s Sunday lineup is probably a factor in keeping the audience in the habit of sticking with CBS on that night in the months that follow.

The other networks also hope to cash in on CBS’ loss of the football games and finally make some progress against “60 Minutes” and “Murder, She Wrote,” although the two aging series have proved to be durable television monuments for years.

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At any rate, Fox, now possessing the football games--and commentators long associated with it, including John Madden, Pat Summerall and Terry Bradshaw--will use the contests to lead in to a new action drama, “Fortune Hunter,” and “The Simpsons,” which is returning to Sundays. These shows will be followed by Fox’s “Married . . . With Children” and a new comedy, “Wild Oats,” about a group of 20-somethings.

If football loosens CBS’ hold on Sundays, “The Simpsons” and two other returning, high-profile series that have registered only mediocre ratings--ABC’s “Lois & Clark: The New Adventures of Superman” and NBC’s “seaQuest DSV”--will be in place to make yet another assault at 8 p.m. on “Murder, She Wrote.”

There are other intriguing matchups in the fall schedule, including Fox’s increasingly popular “Melrose Place,” which will be moved to Mondays at 8 p.m., taking on such sitcoms as “Fresh Prince of Bel-Air,” “Blossom” and “Dave’s World,” as well as ABC’s weekly NFL game.

“Melrose Place” could benefit from increased public attention to Fox as a growing network force, but the odds are that it will still have a rough time against the Big Three competition, although the show’s hold on young viewers is formidable.

A key player in Fox’s youth-oriented lineup is producer Aaron Spelling, who, in the coming season, will have three one-hour series on the network: “Beverly Hills, 90210,” “Melrose Place” and its new spinoff, “Models Inc.” The new show, with Linda Gray as the head of a modeling agency, will follow “Beverly Hills, 90210” and try to make inroads against its key competition, ABC’s potent “Home Improvement” and “Grace Under Fire.”

By an odd twist, CBS, which has won the ratings crown for three consecutive seasons, goes into the 1994-95 shootout as the underdog in the eyes of many industry observers. Not only has the loss of football and the coming defection of stations over the next 1 or 1 1/2 years left a negative public impression but, more important in an immediate sense, CBS is running into the increasingly red-hot ABC network.

Dependent heavily on older-skewing dramas and unable to develop many pivotal blockbuster comedies, CBS also will be without four major sports happenings that helped it to the top in recent years: the World Series, the Super Bowl, the Winter Olympics and the weekly NFL games.

ABC, which might have won this season’s ratings race if not for the Winter Olympics and the out-of-sight ratings propelled by the Tonya Harding-Nancy Kerrigan rivalry, seems well-armed for the coming season, with comedies galore--16 of them--and many of them hits.

In addition, ABC will have the Oscars, the Super Bowl and the World Series. The network was a solid winner in the May ratings sweeps, and it has come on strong as this season progressed. It had the No. 1 show, “Home Improvement”; the top new comedy, “Grace Under Fire”; the leading new drama, “NYPD Blue,” and the highest-rated freshman newsmagazine, “Turning Point,” a midseason entry.

Strengthened by such other comedy hits as “Coach” and “Full House,” ABC has had the luxury to “hammock” some other new contenders, such as “Thunder Alley” and “Ellen” (formerly “These Friends of Mine”), between successful shows, thus helping them to successful launches. If they continue to deliver come fall, ABC will be even tougher.

Not long ago, CBS and other networks were crowing that this has been a significant season for the networks, which actually went up in overall viewership despite new TV alternatives. The Fox station raid, while painful for CBS--which could become more vulnerable to acquisition--may be a further plus for networks and viewers because Fox chose to invest in free, over-the-air broadcasting.

The rest, of course, is up to Fox programming--not exactly on the dean’s list in the past--because viewers, in the end, watch shows and don’t care what the number of the channel is. For the first time, however, Fox is reaching the potential--in its station penetration--to pass one or more of the Big Three networks in total household ratings.

With NBC moving both “Frasier” and “Wings” to Tuesdays, Fox will try to move in on Thursdays by leading off with two of its popular sitcoms, “Martin” and “Living Single.” Both have black stars, but Fox dropped five other series with black headliners--”South Central,” “Roc,” “In Living Color,” “Sinbad” and “Townsend Television.”

However, some breakthroughs may be occurring in the minority area. Margaret Cho, a Korean American stand-up comedian, has a new sitcom, “All American Girl,” on ABC. And Latinos are starred in several series, among them Michael DeLorenzo in the police drama “Uptown Undercover” and John Leguizamo in a planned midseason comedy sketch show, “House of Buggin’,” both on Fox.

Overall, despite CBS’ three-year reign, despite the “Roseanne”-”Frasier” matchup, the key development of the new fall season could be a closer realization of a true four-network environment. Once upon a time, it was just CBS and NBC.