What a Difference a Year Makes

The friendly betting on California’s gubernatorial race is that Gov. Pete Wilson will win narrowly. But there are increasing numbers of political insiders willing to wager he’s headed for a runaway.

It’s the direct opposite of last July, when Treasurer Kathleen Brown was the consensus front-runner and some were thinking landslide.

One seasoned strategist for Democratic legislative candidates recently summed up the new attitude: “Do I think Brown can pull it out?” he asked, repeating my question. “Come on! We’re just hoping she doesn’t crash and burn.” His fear was that she’d take other Democrats down with her.

It’s indisputable, based on polls, that Wilson--the self-proclaimed “Comeback Kid”--has been outrunning Brown and now has overtaken her. There hasn’t been any independent polling since May, but recent private surveys by both candidates found the Republican governor in front--by five points in Brown’s poll and nine in Wilson’s.

By contrast, The Times Poll had Wilson trailing Brown by 22 points in March, 1993, by 15 points last October and by 10 points in May. The Field Poll had relatively similar figures.

“We’re on cloud nine,” says Wilson’s veteran campaign manager, George Gorton. “We’ve got the issues, the lead, more money than she does and a (projected) low turnout that favors Republicans. That begins to limit the number of things that can change things around.”

Making the best of the situation, Brown campaign manager Clinton Reilly insists: “We like our position. The last six months have been open season on Kathleen, like she’s the incumbent. As it becomes apparent she’s the underdog, there’ll be more focus on Wilson and he’ll have to stand on his record.”

Anyway, he adds, “let them think we’re a bunch of country bumpkins.”

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It’s a fascinating paradox that the man with the worst first-term job ratings of any California governor since modern polling began now is the front-runner for reelection.

Brown’s new poll shows Wilson with a job rating of only 34% positive to 65% negative. Her job rating as treasurer also is negative, but a close 38%-43%, with 19% unsure.

With negatives like Wilson’s--in an era of anti-incumbency--you’d think Brown would be cruising to victory. So why isn’t she?

For one, the last year has been a good one for Wilson both in terms of governing and campaigning.

This is the second straight summer he has managed to avoid a repeat of 1992’s disastrous budget gridlock. Last year, he also worked closely with the Legislature to enact pro-business legislation aimed at stimulating the state’s economy. And this year, he has managed to get Southern California’s freeways up and running ahead of schedule after the January earthquake.

Politically, he has run a smart, focused race. The governor has finessed the public’s concerns to his advantage, concentrating on the volatile issues of crime and illegal immigration, where his views seem more in sync with the voters than are Brown’s.

Wilson’s subliminal message: You don’t have to like me to agree with me and vote for me.

“People have seen me struggling with some success, making a major effort on issues they think are very important,” Wilson says. “Kathleen hasn’t done much or said much. You can’t just make a speech to Town Hall and list 33 points and expect people to be bowled over.”

Wilson also has twice as much money in the bank--nearly $5 million to Brown’s roughly $2.4 million. And he has an operating field organization, something Brown still doesn’t.

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To win, her strategists realize, Brown must do two things: Run an effective, old-fashioned “throw the bum out” campaign and establish herself as a credible alternative to the incumbent.

Her private polling points to Wilson’s weaknesses: Pluralities of voters think he hasn’t accomplished much and is out of touch with people. They blame him at least somewhat for the bad economy, declining schools, the budget mess and rising taxes--and believe a second term merely would be more of the same.

But Brown’s biggest problem--the main reason she isn’t cruising--is that voters just aren’t comfortable with her. Part of the reason may be family baggage, especially her brother Jerry’s “moonbeam” image. It also probably didn’t help that she emphasized her father’s opposition to the death penalty in trying to explain her own.

More crucial, however, is that she still hasn’t defined herself. She hasn’t articulated for swing voters why she should be governor.

There’s this nagging suspicion that she hasn’t thought it through. Fortunately for Brown, she has another four months to convince voters that she has.