The Numbers Tell a Story : Quake statistics are like nothing anyone has ever seen

The sheer magnitude of the Northridge quake’s impact demands an extensive review of the now six-month-old recovery effort by federal, state and local officials. Simply put, there is nothing in the recent memory of the nation that compares with the January temblor.

These are not the self-serving impressions of the hometown newspaper. The facts come from the Clinton Administration, which said last month that the effect of the Northridge quake was bigger than the combined impacts of the Midwest floods, Hurricane Andrew, the Loma Prieta earthquake and South Carolina’s Hurricane Hugo. Since then, the Northridge numbers have continued to grow--and so the growing concern.

It is typical after a major disaster, for example, for there to be a huge gap between the number of loan applications issued and the usually far lower number actually filled out and turned in. But, again, it is the magnitude of the Northridge numbers that beg questions: 497,225 applications issued, 197,867 actually filed. In terms of businesses alone, there were 135,049 applications handed out and just 43,657 filed.

The gap is just too large, and the number of employers and employees too great, to avoid an investigation of why so few were turned in. Was the paperwork too daunting, the process too discouraging? Were language barriers a factor? Answers to such questions are badly needed, well before the extended loan-application process ends.

Next, we know that the Small Business Administration is examining the high number of loan applications that were withdrawn (14,157 or about 12 times more than for the Midwest floods or Hurricane Andrew). We know that the SBA is also re-examining about 17,000 loans that were previously denied. In that regard, we note that the loan denial rate for Northridge has been higher than previous natural disasters as well.

Certain factors deserve consideration. It is arguable, for example, that California’s deep recession was greater than anything faced by the Midwest before its floods, or by Florida before its hurricane. Did the downturn in the economy disqualify applicants who otherwise might have deserved aid? Perhaps the loan standards could be relaxed commensurately, to acknowledge the unusual recent lows of the state economy.

A plan pitched last week by U.S. Commerce Secretary Ronald Brown would offer California businesses funds that could be leveraged into greater amounts. The proposal could help some businesses become better loan prospects. Sounds good, but it’s a relatively small program.

We also know that the SBA is attempting to give priority to the loans of businesses located in the ghost towns that have evolved since the quake. That’s good, but when one visits such areas, one realizes that many merchants are still in the dark concerning the larger workings of government. Northridge quake victims need a specific telephone number--just one, only one--that they can call to obtain information. The only number now is mainly useful in directing people to one of the 10 quake-recovery service centers still open. That’s not good enough.

The questions here are simply stated: Is there enough aid, and is enough being done to get it to those who need it? This must be closely examined in Washington, Sacramento and here at home, and soon.