Valley Is Cautiously Optimistic of Recovery : Poll: Times survey finds that after two years of gloom many believe they have reached end of downward slide.

San Fernando Valley residents--those not chased out by lost jobs or scared away by petty crooks and big-time earthquakes--seem to be shaking off the black mood that had spread and deepened in the sprawling Los Angeles suburb over the past two years.

Life is not great, but it is getting better.

That is the prevailing sentiment of Valley residents found in a Los Angeles Times Poll that probed feelings about neighborhoods, personal finances and the workplace--areas where change has erased many longstanding notions about suburban life.

“I had expected lifetime employment,” said Richard Wagner, 58, of Van Nuys, a former aerospace engineer who started his own graphic design business after being laid off two years ago. “I’ve found now that I like to work for myself and I have a knack for the kind of work I do. But the financial impact is dramatic.”

Wagner used to earn $25 an hour. Now he makes between $6 and $10 an hour.

“I have different expectations today,” he said, echoing others who have seen their lives and neighborhoods change dramatically over the past five years.

“Instead of retirement, I’m going to have to work one way or another until I drop,” he said during an interview following his participation in the poll. “That’s OK. I’m fine. I don’t mind working.”

The Times poll, supervised by John Brennan, interviewed 1,094 adults living in the Valley--including the cities of San Fernando and Burbank--on July 9 and 10. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

The poll found that after surviving a wave of layoffs, business failures and dramatic declines in real estate values, Valley residents are beginning to express cautious optimism about the area’s financial prospects, despite the widespread pain that continues to be felt in many households.

Far from an economic recovery, many Valley residents instead say they have reached the end of a downward slide.

After four years of recession--as well as several years of accelerated demographic and other social changes--most say they have hit bottom and are now poised for a rebound.

Despite lingering economic troubles for many, only 5% of residents polled said they believe their finances will worsen in the next year, with 50% saying they will improve and 40% say they will probably remain about the same.

Crime remains by far the main worry, but now fewer than half of Valley residents, 43%, believe the quality of life in their community is going downhill, compared to 54% who despaired over their neighborhood’s prospects a little more than a year ago. A total of 70% now say they are satisfied with their neighborhoods, compared to 59% reporting in an April, 1993, Times poll.

Looking ahead, 31% say they think the Valley will not be in a recession next year.

The growing optimism over finances and community comes despite the Jan. 17 Northridge earthquake, which caused major damage at 44% of residents’ homes and apartments, according to The Times poll. About 30% say they are worse off financially because of the quake.

Even so, the shift to a more upbeat mood is broad-based, shared almost evenly by whites, Latinos, young, old, rich, poor, homeowner and renter. The mood is similar to the feelings of residents countywide, according to a countywide Times poll conducted last month.

More people, 57%, say they are making big purchases such as cars, furniture, vacations and tuition. About 45% of those polled said they have postponed buying because of financial troubles.

The turnaround was dramatic for artist Andrew Totnan, 33, a Studio City homeowner.

“Last year was my worst year and this year will probably turn out to be my best,” he said. Sales of his work, which range in price from $200 to $6,000, are suddenly at a record pace.

Last year, with few buyers, Totnan said he considered returning to teaching, a profession he left to be a full-time artist. Now, he said, life is good.

“I have friends in different professions and it seems like most of them are doing better, that the economy is really picking up,” he said.

For many others, however, there is only hope of financial recovery, and not much more.

Despite economists’ claims to the contrary, 66% still say they believe the Valley is in some kind of economic decline--either a mild, moderate or serious recession. Last year, however, the figure was 80%.

Mohamad Barmaki, 47, of Burbank says his finances haven’t fallen much during the past few years. He buys, repairs and sells used cars for a living. But he still sees the effects of the recession on his customers.

“People are not as easy as they were before,” he said. “They are more into getting bargains. Some are really suffering.”

The recession and a changing economy has forced many businesses to trim payrolls and eliminate jobs.

“I don’t see much dead wood out at the workplace these days,” said Alan Darnell, 47, of North Hollywood, who works as a temporary accountant at different firms. “The people who are on the job are really working. They’re not just there to collect a paycheck.”

But for many caught in the campaign to cut costs, times are still tough.

Two out of 10 Valley residents say the area remains in a serious recession, compared to 34% in 1993. And a substantial group, one-fifth of the Valley’s population, remains stuck in a monthly struggle to pay rent, buy groceries and make car or insurance payments, according to The Times poll.

“In the last year and a half my hours were cut from 40 a week to 32, and my husband has less work,” said Roberta Rohwer, 43, of Burbank. “We were renting a house and now we’re renting an apartment. . . . This year we couldn’t go on vacation. They shut off the cable before Christmas and we haven’t been able to get it put back on because there are too many other important things to pay for, like electricity.”

Rohwer, who works in sales at the Ikea home furnishings store, said she has been taking night classes in child development at Valley College for the past two years. But she is discouraged now after learning that entry-level workers at child-care centers earn less than retail sales clerks.

“It doesn’t seem we will be doing a heck of a lot better any time soon,” said the Burroughs High School graduate. “It’s just frustrating.”

For job losses, the worst may be over. This month, 16% report they or someone in their household was fired in the last 12 months, compared to 23% in April last year. The total proportion of Valley households affected by lost jobs, work or income fell to 34% from 43% in April of last year. Among those who lost work through staff cuts, the proportion dropped to 23%, compared to 37% last year.

Also, fewer families who lost jobs are blaming the recession, 22%, compared to 42% who said that was the reason last year.

Valley residents as a group apparently value education, an investment that is consistently made among all income groups, according to the poll. Of households making major purchases in the past year, tuition is second only to vehicle purchase among those earning $20,000 and less a year. Of Valley residents who postponed major purchases, more said they deferred buying cars, furniture, vacations and appliances before postponing tuition.

For many, education is the route to regaining lost ground after losing a job in the past two or three years. Often, that means learning a new trade or new skills. Most of the 34% who say they have gone to school or taken training to improve or learn new careers say the extra work has paid off.

Schooling landed Robert Broadway a job in computer software engineering. But at age 32, he has already been laid off twice in his career and seen his annual income drop $16,000 after his last job change.

This is not what he expected after following his father’s footsteps into the computer business, said the El Camino Real High School graduate. His dad, Broadway said, has been out of work for more than a year.

Laid-off aerospace workers, many with advanced college degrees, have flooded the market, making it especially difficult for younger, less experienced workers, Broadway said.

Despite the uncertainties of his business, though, Broadway said he is better off than when he was working as a car mechanic. He got out of that career after he attended Pierce College and completed courses at an electronics trade school.

His first big break came when he was hired by a firm servicing electronic equipment for local Fortune 500 companies. “They were paying $36 an hour,” Broadway said. “Then three years ago I got laid off. They had to downsize because they were mostly servicing aerospace companies.”

Four months later, Broadway found another job, this one paying $11 an hour in the technical support division of computer-maker Packard Bell Electronics Inc. “Technical support is not a high-paying job,” he said. “But there are always openings. It’s the drudge job of the computer industry.”

Then after the Jan. 17 earthquake, he was laid off again, only to be rehired two weeks later in the company’s software engineering division. Now, he said, he is not taking any more chances.

“I’m back in school, taking classes in advanced computer software,” he said. “As technology becomes more powerful, computers will support more advanced programs and so people who write advanced programs will be more and more in demand. To stay alive in this industry, you have to read what is going on in three or four years.”

Reflecting the changing nature of the workplace, 58% of those employed report earning better salaries than they were paid five years ago. But only 31% report improvements in benefits such as health insurance and vacation pay, while 20% say they are worse. About 26% of Valley residents who work say they receive no benefits at all, 16% say their income fell over the past five years and 23% say it is about the same.

Considering everything, 51% of Valley workers say their job or business is better than it was five years ago, 23% say it is worse and 24% say it is about the same. However, 86% say they are satisfied with their jobs.

The majority of Valley residents, 74%, describe their finances as secure, up a bit from a year ago, and higher than residents polled this spring countywide, 66%, and statewide, 63%.

A total of 28% say they are having trouble paying their rent or mortgage.

Alfred Tutungi, 38, whose Sylmar townhouse suffered extensive damage during the earthquake, is one of the people whose housing costs have become a burden. While waiting for insurance adjusters and his neighbors to agree on how to proceed with repairs, Tutungi must pay to rent another place to live, as well as support his wife and newborn baby.

“It was tough before and now it’s worse,” said Tutungi, a child-care director at a city-run center in North Hollywood. “(Home) prices had fallen enough already, and now the earthquake on top of it.”

Homes have become a burden rather than an asset for 20%. That is roughly the same proportion of Valley homeowners who bought their houses or condominiums in the years 1988 through 1991, the peak of the area’s real estate market, according to the San Fernando Valley Board of Realtors.

But 72% of Valley homeowners consider their properties an asset. That is also about the same proportion who have owned their homes more than six years and, presumably, still have some equity despite the fall in prices, now back to 1988 levels.

Next year, 27% of homeowners say they believe the value of their property will go up, with half saying it will probably stay the same.

Former homeowner Leslie Dimattia has seen both extremes of the Valley economy.

She and her ex-husband built a pizza chain of 24 stores in five states during the 1980s, then went bankrupt in 1991.

“It was a nice ride, you know, trips to Maui, live-ins, donating money, not having to think about what this or that cost,” said Dimattia, 41, who figures she and her ex-husband ended up owing about $8 million at the end.

Now she works as a waitress in a Tarzana coffee shop. She and her two children live in a rented Van Nuys house, creditors having long ago taken her home in Sherman Oaks.

“It’s rough, but the silver lining is that the kids are getting in touch with budgeting, something they never had to think about,” Dimattia said of her children, ages 8 and 14. “But they remember the Hawaii trips, private schools and going shopping for clothes. Here in Van Nuys you have gang members on one side and crack dealers on the other. One good part, the princess in my daughter had to disappear.”

Assistant Times Poll Director Susan Pinkus contributed to this story.

Economic Poll Findings

San Fernando Valley residents, after surviving a lingering recession and a major earthquake, say life is not great, but it’s getting better. A Times Poll, taken July 9 and 10 of 1,094 adults, finds people generally more satisfied with their finances and neighborhoods than a year ago.

Employment Picture

Respondents were asked if anyone in their household was fired or laid off within the past 12 months.

Percentage responding “fired or laid off”: April, 1993: 23% July, 1994: 16% *

The Recession

Do you think your community is in an economic recession? Yes 1993: 80% 1994: 66% No 1993: 16% 1994: 26% *

Job Benefits

Are the benefits you get at your current job like health and life insurance and vacation pay better than the ones you were getting five years ago, are hey worse or are they about the same? Better: 31% Worse: 20% About the same: 39% Had no benefits/didn’t work 5 years ago: 10% *

Financial Security

Would you describe the state of your own personal finances these days as very secure, fairly secure, fairly shaky or very shaky?

Percentage answering “very secure” or “fairly secure”: 1993: 69% 1994: 74% *

Community Satisfaction

Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied these days with the community in which you live?

Percentage answering “satisfied”: April, 1993: 59% July, 1994: 70% *

Earthquake Aftermath

Was your residence or anything in it damaged or destroyed when the Northridge earthquake hit on Jan. 17? Would you say the damage was only minor or would you say there was major damage? No damage: 16% Minor damage: 40% Major damage: 44% Source: Los Angeles Times Poll

HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED

The Times Poll interviewed 1,094 adult residents of the San Fernando Valley, including Burbank and the city of San Fernando, by telephone, July 9 and 10. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the area. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and unlisted numbers could be contacted. Interviewing was conducted in English and Spanish. The sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age and education. The margin of sampling error for the total sample is plus or minus 4 percentage points. For certain sub-groups, the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.

The Lineup

Today

Taking Stock: A Times Poll reflects cautious optimism about the Valley’s economic prospects by residents who haven’t been chased out by lost jobs or scared away by earthquakes. A1

Survivors: Profiles of four Valley residents whose lives were turned upside-down by an economy in transition. B1

Suicide Club: A group of laid-off engineers and designers try to turn their misfortune into opportunity. B1

History Lesson: From cattle to dry farming to orchards to the arrival of the aerospace industry and the suburbs--an economic history of the Valley. B2

Monday

A New Workplace: For people who lost their jobs or equity or business, the past four years have been a lingering disaster. And yet, for others, the ‘90s have been a time of unequaled opportunity.

Enterprise: Profiles of companies that epitomize the type of businesses expected to prosper in the new economic climate.

House of Horrors: After two years on the market, Darrel Swendener’s dream house has turned into a nightmare.

Lowering the Boom: The roaring ‘80s in the Antelope and Santa Clarita valleys sputtered to a close, but the area seems poised to recover quicker than other areas of Southern California.

Tuesday

Future Tense: A report from the front lines on the new workplace, where entrepreneurs, computer experts and others talk about how they feel about having 21st-Century jobs in the 20th Century.

Forever Young, Not: An already overburdened school system struggles to prepare youngsters for the changing workplace.

Help: A compendium of tips, lists and insights for coping with the lingering recession and preparing for the new economy. Plus, a Q&A; with Robert D. Bass, an Encino bankruptcy lawyer.

Temporary Solution: In almost every industry, from banking to biotechnology, temporary workers are playing an increasingly important role. Valley Business