Umberg’s Campaign Says He’s Closing In on Lungren : Politics: It trumpets poll showing assemblyman trails incumbent by only 10 points in attorney general race.

It might be more sow’s ear than silk purse, but Orange County Assemblyman Tom Umberg’s campaign team Tuesday ballyhooed the results of a statewide poll showing the Democrat candidate for attorney general trailing incumbent Dan Lungren by 10 points.

“Dan Lungren must have choked on his Cheerios when he saw the poll numbers this morning,” gushed George Urch, Umberg’s campaign manager. “The voters obviously don’t think he is cutting it in our war against crime.”

But the Lungren camp called the latest poll numbers misleading because they represent a survey of all voters, not those most likely to cast ballots in November.

“I don’t think this poll represents any problem for us at all,” said Joanne Stabler, the Republican incumbent’s campaign director. “I think those numbers are a little bit skewed.”

A poll conducted by the Field Institute between July 12 and 17 showed Lungren leading Umberg 35% to 25%, with a hefty 45% expressing no opinion on either candidate. The telephone survey of 609 registered voters had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1%.

Urch said the incumbent’s inability to garner a wider margin of support does not bode well for Lungren in a year when voters are whipped up about crime.

In some parts of California, he noted, the electorate has already demonstrated a willingness to cast out long-established crime fighters. During the June primary, voters in counties scattered around the state rejected nine incumbent district attorneys and three sheriffs, a political rarity for those typically safe seats.

With such factors coming into play, “it is going to be a dogfight,” Urch predicted.

Stabler countered that the more important results in the poll are the wide difference in name recognition between Umberg and Lungren. The poll found that 81% had no opinion of Umberg, while 45% were unaware of Lungren.

The large number of undecided voters is understandable given that neither Lungren nor Umberg faced a challenger in the June primary, she said.

“People aren’t focused right now on the A.G. race,” Stabler said, adding that the large percentage of voters expressing no opinion on either candidate will evaporate as Election Day nears.

She had one last thing to add. “Lungren doesn’t eat Cheerios,” Stabler said. “They’ve got to do better opposition research.”