THE TIMES POLL : Dissatisfied Americans May Spell Democrat Losses

Storm clouds are gathering.

That’s the stark message from a new Times Poll to Democrats looking toward the November midterm congressional elections.

In the survey, Americans express enormous pessimism about the country’s direction, rising dissatisfaction with President Clinton’s performance and integrity, and substantial skepticism about a key Democratic argument--that religious conservatives pose a threat to American society.

The poll shows that Americans remain overwhelmingly disappointed in Washington’s progress on major problems facing the country and that they are less likely than early in Clinton’s term to believe that the President and the Democrats have better solutions than the GOP. Asked who had better ideas for solving the country’s problems, those surveyed split almost evenly between Clinton and his chief antagonist in Washington, Senate Minority Leader Bob Dole (R-Kan.).

On the question of whether they intend to vote for Democrats or Republicans in the congressional elections, those polled closely divided, giving Democrats a narrow 44%-42% preference.

That split could presage significant problems for Democrats. Although broad national opinions do not necessarily predict the results in hundreds of congressional elections, in the past Democrats have generally needed a significant advantage to run well on Election Day. In October, 1992, for instance, Democrats held a 10-point lead on that question in a Times survey but still lost 10 House seats in the election.

The Times Poll, supervised by John Brennan, surveyed 1,515 adults from Saturday through Tuesday; it has a sampling margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

The survey shows that Clinton’s position has eroded across the board--to the point where he could emerge as a significant drag on Democratic candidates in the fall election if he cannot reverse the trends.

Overall, 45% of those surveyed approve of Clinton’s performance as President and 47% disapprove. That’s a 9-percentage-point drop in Clinton’s approval rating since April and his second-lowest showing in a Times survey: The nadir came during the budget battle in June, 1993, when only 42% gave Clinton positive grades.

Partisan preferences in the fall election closely track sentiments about Clinton’s performance: 70% of those who give Clinton positive job approval ratings say they will vote Democratic in November; 68% of those who disapprove say they will vote Republican.

Only one in five of those polled said they would be more likely to vote for a congressional candidate if they believed that he or she “would support President Clinton most of the time.” One in three said they would be less likely to support such a candidate, and 44% said that would not have much effect on their votes. Among independents, the critical swing vote, 35% are less likely to vote for candidates seen as Clinton loyalists and just 14% are more likely.

Clinton retains relatively strong approval ratings among traditionally Democratic groups like blacks and union members, but he has slipped substantially among the groups he needs to broaden his base: Since April, his positive ratings among former Ross Perot voters plummeted 18 points, and his backing among men slid by 14 points. His performance produces significant gaps by sex and marital status: Women and single adults are far more satisfied with Clinton than men and those who are married.

Clinton’s overall job performance rating actually exceeds the marks Americans gave him on individual issues. On the economy, just 39% approve of his performance, with 50% disapproving. On foreign policy, just 38% approve, with 52% disapproving. Both those ratings are down since April.

Asked if they have a clear idea of where Clinton wants to lead the country on foreign policy, only 15% say yes; nearly three-fourths, including a substantial majority of Democrats, say no. Even on health care Clinton’s vital signs are weakening: Only 40% approve of his handling of the issue, with a 52% majority again disapproving.

If those numbers look bad for Clinton on the surface, digging deeper makes them look worse. For one thing, Clinton is struggling even though Americans are generally positive about the economy. Clinton’s overall approval rating and his economic grade have eroded since April even though voters’ assessment of the economy has remained stable over the same period.

A second problem for Clinton is what might be called the intensity gap. Just 14% of those surveyed strongly approve of his performance as President; twice as many strongly disapprove. Just one in 10 strongly approve of his foreign policy performance; one in three strongly disapprove.

A similar mismatch occurred when registered voters in the survey were asked whether they were inclined to support Clinton for a second term in 1996. Those sentiments are unlikely to predict actual voting behavior more than two years away, but they are another measure of the depth of feeling about the President.

Just 37% of voters surveyed say they are likely to vote for Clinton in 1996, and 50% say they plan to vote against him. Only 13% say they definitely plan to vote for Clinton, and one-third (including one-third of independents and three-fifths of Republicans) say they will definitely vote against him.

A third large area of concern for Clinton is the resurgent doubt about his character and integrity. When those who disapprove of Clinton are asked in an open-ended question why they dislike him, fewer than one in 20 mention the Whitewater controversy or the allegations of sexual harassment against him by Paula Corbin Jones. Asked directly, fewer than three in 10 say that not enough is being done to investigate the Whitewater affair.

But those controversies nonetheless seem to be reopening uncertainties about Clinton’s trustworthiness. In the survey, just 55% say he has the honesty and integrity needed to serve as President; 35% disagree. That is his weakest showing on that measure in his presidency and represents a steady erosion since last December, when the Whitewater controversy burst into the news: At that point, two-thirds of Americans endorsed Clinton’s honesty. Similarly, Americans now split evenly, 45% to 45%, when asked if Clinton represents their values.

Despite the disillusionment with Clinton, the poll spotlights some glimmers through the gloom for Democrats. It indicates that most Americans have by no means written off the President.

A 49%-41% plurality of those polled still say he is “working hard to bring fundamental change” and nearly three in five still consider him either very or somewhat effective as President. Almost three-fifths of voters polled say they are inclined to vote to reelect their member of Congress--which could help Democrats, who have the most incumbents on the ballot.

The survey casts doubts, however, on a recent strategy employed by leading Democrats who have sought to focus voter anger on the increasing visibility of religious conservatives like broadcaster Pat Robertson within the Republican Party.

For one thing, Americans generally do not worry too much about the political influence of religious conservatives. The poll found that 40% do fear that “conservative Christians have too much political power,” but that is actually a smaller group than the total of those who believe that they have either the right amount of power (33%) or too little (13%).

One in five of those polled said the involvement of religious conservatives would make them less likely to vote for Republicans, but that sentiment was strongest among partisan Democrats least likely to back the GOP in the first place. Among independents, nearly two-thirds said the issue would have no effect on their attitude toward Republican candidates.

Strikingly, more Americans display concern about the political influence of culturally divisive groups associated with the Democrats. Asked who posed a “greater threat to American society,” 38% picked “liberal groups like feminists and gay activists,” whereas just 12% named conservative religious groups. The rest said neither, both, or that they did not know. Even Democrats were somewhat more likely to worry about the influence of feminists and gays.

Americans increasingly share the concern of religious conservatives that moral decline is at the root of many social problems--though they do not always agree with the solutions that the conservatives advance. For instance:

* The poll asked whether American families are threatened more by economic strains, as liberals usually maintain, or by “a moral climate that hurts community standards.” By a five-to-three margin, the respondents worried more about trends in morality. That represents a shift since the recession, when economic concerns dominated.

* To the question of which poses “a greater danger” to America--intolerance of divergent lifestyles or too many people who “have lifestyles which are harmful to themselves and society”--by a roughly five-to-three margin those polled worried most about the impact of harmful lifestyles.

* Asked if the problems of minority groups in the inner city are primarily rooted in racism and economic injustice or in a lack of personal responsibility, by a margin of nearly five to three respondents fingered a lack of personal responsibility.

In their attacks on the “religious right,” Democrats risk alienating a substantial segment of the population. According to the survey, white Protestants who describe themselves as born-again Christians constitute 23% of the population. A slightly smaller group, 18%, are white Protestant fundamentalists, meaning they believe that the Bible is the literal word of God. There is a substantial overlap between the two groups.

But both groups have clearly soured on Clinton: Three-fifths disapprove of his job performance. Roughly half say he lacks the honesty and integrity to serve as President. More than 60% say he does not share their values. Nearly half of white born-again and fundamentalist Protestants registered to vote say they will definitely vote against him in 1996.

A Growing Discontent

Bill Clinton’s standing with Americans has sagged since April, with most Americans continuing to doubt things are getting done in Washington.

Clinton Job Ratings 7/94 Approve: 45% Disapprove: 45% *

Why do you like Clinton? He’s trying/Needs more time: 26% Like his health care proposals: 16% Cares about people like me: 9% He’s done well so far: 8% *

Why do you dislike Clinton? Lacks integrity/Don’t trust him: 12% Not fulfilling his campaign promises: 11% Don’t like his health care proposals: 10% Weak leader/indecisive: 10% *

How much progress to you think the government in Washington is making these days in solving the major problems facing this country? A great deal/A lot: 7% Only some/Not much: 91% Don’t know: 2% *

Who do you think has better ideas for solving the country’s problems-Senate Republican leader Bob Dole or President Clinton? Dole: 34% Clinton: 37% Neither/Both: 12% Don’t know: 17% *

Foreign affairs

Would you favor or oppose the use of U.S. troops, as part of a U.N.-sponsored multi-national invasion force, to help restore Haiti’s democratically elected government? Favor: 36% Oppose: 48% Don’t know: 16% *

Do you think the United State’s response to the situation in Rwanda is adequate? Adequate: 50% Do more: 26% Done too much: 19% Don’t know: 5% Morals, Religion and Politics

The table below compares the views of white born-again and white fundamentalist Christians with those of all Americans.

% who: All Adults All GOP All Conservatives Are Democrats 46% - 28% Are Republicans 39% 100% 62% Are conservatives 35% 59% 100% Approve of Clinton 45% 20% 29% Think moral problems 53% 68% 67% are more important than economic problems Think traditional family 70% 81% 81% structure is always best Think men should be 42% 46% 51% the achievers; women the homemakers Think homosexual relations 61% 70% 75% are always wrong Favor prayer in public schools 76% 80% 84% Favor legalized abortion 45% 40% 34% Are politically active 30% 35% 32%

*

White White Protestant Protestant % who: Born-Agains Fundamentalists Are Democrats 38% 39% Are Republicans 51% 43% Are conservatives 47% 48% Approve of Clinton 36% 36% Think moral problems 64% 60% are more important than economic problems Think traditional family 82% 82% structure is always best Think men should be 58% 65% the achievers; women the homemakers Think homosexual relations 77% 87% are always wrong Favor prayer in public schools 90% 94% Favor legalized abortion 28% 18% Are politically active 34% 21%

*

13% say involvement of conservative Christians in the GOP has made them more likely to vote for GOP candidates.

20% say that has made them less likely to vote for GOP candidates.

64% say that has made no difference.

12% say conservative religious/political groups are the greater danger to society.

38% say liberal feminists/gay activists are the greater danger.

43% say neither or both are a danger.

Source: Los Angeles Times national poll of 1,515 adults, taken July 23-26. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the nation. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed numbers could be contacted. Interviewing was conducted in English and Spanish. The sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age and education. The margin of sampling error for the total sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points.