Survey Shows Backing for Airport : Measure A: Bare majority now supports the plan for El Toro, but opponents don’t see strength in the numbers.

Support for an initiative that would require a commercial airport at El Toro has increased to a bare majority of voters, but backing for Measure A is still soft even among proponents, according a UCI Orange County Annual Survey released Wednesday.

The survey showed that support for the November ballot measure, which seeks to convert El Toro Marine Corps Air Station into a civilian airport, has grown 12 points to 51% in three months among registered voters, while 33% oppose it.

A Times Orange County Poll in May showed that only 39% of 600 voters polled supported the measure, while 58% opposed it. The UCI telephone survey contacted 812 registered voters and was done between Aug. 19-29.

Cheryl Katz, who co-directed both polls by Mark Baldassare and Associates, said the results of the latest survey do not necessarily foretell passage of the measure, called the Orange County/El Toro Economic Stimulus Initiative.

“Support for the initiative is still soft. Even people who say they’ve made up their mind in support of it are still not strongly decided on the question,” said Katz.

The UCI poll showed that voters are still not convinced that building a commercial airport once the base is closed in 1999 because of federal cutbacks will reap an economic boon for Orange County, as promised by sponsors of the measure. Only 36% of voters polled strongly agreed that an airport at El Toro will create jobs and improve the county’s economy, while 21% disagreed.

Only 24% strongly agreed that “a commercial airport at El Toro is the most fiscally sound use of the Marine air base,” while 31% said they disagreed.

“There aren’t a lot of people who have strong opinions on the impact of a commercial airport at El Toro,” said Baldassare.

But sponsors of the initiative have benefited from growing support in north and central Orange County. The Times Orange County Poll in May showed only 42% of the voters in those areas said they would vote for the measure. The 39% approval rating was for countywide.

The UCI poll showed that 57% of voters in north and central Orange County now say they would vote for the initiative. The countywide rate is 51%.

There was a significant number of undecided voters--potentially the swing vote--with 16% in the UCI poll, an increase over the 3% in The Times Orange County survey in May.

“It’s been a slow start. We admit that. But I don’t think that’s a problem,” said Garden Grove City Councilman Mark Leyes, a supporter of the initiative. “. . . We expect the support to continue growing in October, when people get their sample ballots and read the initiative.”

However, Katz said there really “isn’t a groundswell of support” for the measure. She said the UCI poll’s 3.5% margin for error means that “there really isn’t much of a majority support yet.”

The poll also showed that Orange County remains polarized on the issue. In South County, 55% of voters polled said they would vote against the measure, while 57% in north and central Orange County would vote in favor.

Lake Forest Mayor Marcia Rudolph, who is against the initiative, said opponents in South County have the edge because “they are firm in their resolution to vote against the measure.” She said that opposition in North County to Measure A will grow “when they realize there are still too many unanswered questions about the cost of an airport” at El Toro.

Baldassare said that the opponents’ best tactic to defeat the measure is to “hammer away on the cost issue.”

“Until people know how much this project is going to cost taxpayers, they can just as easily turn against it as they can turn for it,” said Baldassare. “There’s a lot of people whose opinions on the initiative are very fluid at this point.”

Sponsors of the initiative need “to convince voters that the airport would create jobs and not cost taxpayers too much,” Baldassare said. “At this point, both sides have yet to convince most voters of their claims.”

Irvine City Councilman Barry J. Hammond, who opposes the initiative, said the measure may turn out to be a blessing in disguise.

“It really doesn’t have a whole lot of support. If it fails, there won’t be any more talking about an airport at El Toro,” said Hammond. “From the beginning I’ve felt that even if we wanted an airport there, the best way to kill it is by putting the idea on the ballot. Exclusive of a few wealthy people who stand to profit from it, support for an airport is still very soft throughout the county.”

Nonetheless, Leyes said that airport supporters are encouraged by the results of the UCI poll.

“It’s remarkable that we have 51% support throughout the county. But we still have a lot of work to do. We need to reinforce the belief that building an airport at El Toro will rebuild the economy in Orange County,” Leyes said.

Airport Measure Divides County

The ballot measure to designate El Toro for commercial aviation has scant majority support, but has divided the county geographically. Those in north and central Orange County more strongly support the airport while a majority of South County residents stand against it.At the heart of South County objections to a new airport are fears that it would create excessive noise and that the development would not be a fiscally sound decision.

Measure A on the Orange County ballot would designate the El Toro Marine Corps. Air Station for civil aviation and related purposes. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Measure A? Total Yes: 51% No: 33% Don’t know: 16% *

Yes No Don’t Know North/central county57% 25% 18% South County 35% 55% 10%

A commercial airport at El Toro will create jobs and improve the Orange County economy. Total Strongly agree: 36% Somewhat agree: 36% Disagree: 21% Don’t know: 7% *

Strongly Somewhat Don’t agree agree Disagree know North/central county 40% 37% 17% 6% SouthCounty 27% 33% 33% 7%

*

A commercial airport at El Toro will create excessive noise for residents living in the surrounding communities. Total Strongly agree: 42% Somewhat agree: 28% Disagree: 25% Don’t know: 5% *

Strongly Somewhat Don’t agree agree Disagree know North/central county 36% 31% 27% 6% South County 57% 20% 19% 4%

*

A commercial airport at El Toro is the most fiscally sound use of the Marine air base, that is, it will cost Orange County taxpayers less to develop and will generate more tax revenues than any other possible future use. Total Strongly agree: 24% Somewhat agree: 29% Disagree: 31% Don’t know: 16%

Strongly Somewhat Don’t agree agree Disagree know North/central county 27% 32% 23% 18% South County 17% 18% 52% 13%

Source: Orange County Annual Survey, UCI