BUSINESS PULSE / JOHN BRENNAN : Polls Show More Than Economy Dogs Clinton’s Appeal Ratings
Bill Clinton is suffering through what rightfully can be called “bad poll days.” At the start of the year, it looked as if his job rating might break through the 60% mark that has so long eluded him. Instead, his scores have moved ever downward, from 58% in January to just 39% this month, according to the Gallup Poll.
Political know-it-alls say presidential fortunes are hitched to the economy. But Clinton’s, enigmatically, have gone south during a time of reported economic growth. That trend seems baffling to many, but it probably shouldn’t surprise anyone. This President’s poll record has been odd from the start.
Indeed, Clinton has been notably unpopular from Day One, recording some of the lowest first-year poll scores of any chief executive in Gallup Poll history. Some blame this on the small 43% plurality by which he won office. But that alone can’t explain it. Richard M. Nixon triumphed in 1968 with the same 43% share, but Nixon’s Gallup scores stayed over 50% throughout his opening year.
To diagnose Clinton’s problem, one needs first to ask: Is the public as happy with the economy as some statistics suggest? The polls offer a mixed review. Unquestionably, people do feel better than they did two years ago. But better is not necessarily good. Most indexes of consumer confidence have not returned to pre-1990-recession levels. The July Times Poll showed, for example, that 53% of Americans still felt the economy was in some kind of recession. In California, where Clinton has dropped 14 points in Times surveys since spring, polls show scant evidence of better consumer feelings.
Moreover, in the past few months, most national consumer measures--notably those by the Conference Board and ABC News/Money Magazine--have soured rather than improved. Interest rate hikes may be popular on Wall Street, but on Main Street they seem to be taking their toll, on both optimism and the President’s standing.
The economy is a key to presidential popularity, but it’s not the only one. Approval can run over or below the prevailing economic pegs. Ronald Reagan’s job scores commonly came in above his economic ratings. George Bush saw his appeal surge during the 1991 Gulf War, though recession was brewing beneath those stratospheric percentages.
Clinton’s overall standing often runs beneath his economic score, suggesting that something else is a drag on his persona. What might that be? In July, the Times Poll asked the 46% of Americans who said they disliked Clinton to volunteer the reasons for their feelings. The answers to this open-ended question may help with the mystery.
Virtually none of the Clinton detractors cited matters relating to the economy. Just 2%, for example, said they disliked his economic proposals and almost no one complained that he had raised taxes.
Instead, the answers primarily dwelt with concerns about the President’s honesty, leadership and resolve.
A good number of the doubters brought up a perceived lack of direction in foreign affairs, and quite a few specifically indicated that Clinton had gone back on campaign promises. These answers surfaced far more often than specific objections to the President’s ideology or programs.
So Clinton has troubles besides the economy. He seems dogged by amorphous but omnipresent public doubts about his steadfastness. Many of these were spawned before his election--and so far have not been extinguished. As he strains to make his 43% support into a majority, this President is dually weighed upon by doubts about his personality and the nation’s pocketbook.
Economy Up, Thumbs Down
Despite generally favorable economic news--usually a prime determinant of a President’s standing with the public--President Clinton’s popularity has slid all year long, according to the Gallup Poll.
Sept. Aug. June March Jan. Poll date: 6-7 8-9 11-12 25-27 28-30 Approve 39% 43% 49% 52% 58% Disapprove 54 48 44 41 35
Note: Numbers do not add to 100% because “don’t know” answers are not shown.
Source: The Gallup Poll
