THE EL TORO AIRPORT INITIATIVE : Voters Asked to Weigh Merits in Factual and Comparative Vacuum : There can be no rational decision without hard data on costs and benefits.

Measure A appears to be headed for victory on the Nov. 8 ballot. Placed on the ballot by Buck Johns, George Argyros and those other radical ballot-box planners at the Lincoln Club, Measure A would require construction of a commercial airport at the El Toro Marine base.

Frankly, I have yet to arrive at a conclusion about the merits of building a commercial airport at El Toro and am rather amazed that so many others have.

How does anyone know, with an appropriate degree of certitude, that a commercial airport is technologically practical, economically viable or the best use, given the need to balance economic growth and revenue enhancement against other equally significant considerations?

How could they know when these issues have not been sufficiently studied or analyzed?

Indeed, the many promises contained in the initiative have not been verified by disinterested parties and therefore lack credibility.

To be sure, there are good arguments on both sides of the El Toro debate.

But at this point, there are only arguments, not hard data about the costs and benefits of a commercial airport. Neither is there sufficient evidence to systematically compare the pluses and minuses of a commercial airport with any other alternative land use.

What we’re given instead are speculations deduced from unsubstantiated assumptions advanced by wishful thinkers. This is no way to make the county decision of the decade, although in political terms it is the best way for Johns, Argyros, et al., to have their way (again).

Measure A requires the rational voter to judge the merits of a commercial airport without sufficient empirical evidence and without comparison to any other land-use option.

Faced with such uncertainty, the only logical recourse is to vote “no” on Measure A and let the assessment process continue until evaluative and comparative analyses are completed.

Then, and only then, will it be possible to render a rational judgment on the merits of an El Toro airport.