THE TIMES POLL : Support for Prop. 187 Erodes, but It Still Leads : Opposition to immigration measure is up sharply among many groups. Smoking measure now faltering.

Less than two weeks before Election Day, Proposition 187 has turned from a runaway into a horse race, with support for the sweeping ballot measure dropping to just above the 50% mark, the Los Angeles Times Poll has found.

The initiative--which would deny non-emergency health care, education and social services to illegal immigrants--is now favored 51% to 41% by likely voters. Among all registered voters, it is ahead 51% to 39%.

Those margins represent a marked decline from samples taken as recently as two weeks ago, when a Times poll showed Proposition 187 ahead 59% to 33% among likely voters and 61% to 32% among all registered voters.

“What seemed inevitable two weeks ago is inevitable no longer,” Times Poll Director John Brennan said. “As people pay more attention to this thing, they seem to like it less and less.

“That doesn’t necessarily mean it will lose, but it’s definitely a significant drop.”

The slide in support has occurred at a time when the get-tough initiative has emerged as the key issue in the November election and a central focus of the state’s high-stakes gubernatorial and Senate races.

More than 1 in 3 voters--37%--say they are being drawn to the ballot box primarily because of Proposition 187. That is more than twice as many as those who cite the hard-fought gubernatorial contest between Republican incumbent Gov. Pete Wilson and Democratic challenger Kathleen Brown. And it is more than four times as many as those who say they are being motivated to vote by the Senate race between Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein and Republican challenger Rep. Mike Huffington.

The illegal immigrant measure is motivating about the same amount of supporters and opponents to go to the polls.

The Times poll, completed Tuesday night, is the first major statewide poll to suggest that the controversial measure--which would bar illegal immigrants from many public services and require education, health and law enforcement officials to report suspects to federal authorities--stands a chance of being defeated.

In explaining their positions, those favoring the initiative continued to cite as their main reason a desire to “do something” about illegal immigration by sending a message to government officials.

But those opposed say they are concerned that Proposition 187 would not work or is unfair. Nearly 1 in 4 opponents of Proposition 187 said they are against expelling hundreds of thousands of children from public schools, an action some say could lead to increases in crime. One in five of the voters who oppose the measure say it is poorly written or does not solve the state’s illegal immigration problem. Fifteen percent called Proposition 187 “inhumane” and 14% termed it “racist.”

In mid-September, the measure boasted support from virtually every demographic group in the state. But now it is widely opposed by Latino registered voters: 65% to 22%. Moreover, Democratic voters, who had favored the initiative just two weeks ago--52% to 40%--have also changed their minds. In the new poll, Democrats oppose Proposition 187 by a 53%-39% split.

The Times poll also picked up a major shift on Proposition 188, the tobacco industry-backed initiative to establish statewide regulations on smoking restrictions.

Two weeks ago, the measure was favored by a 49% to 43% margin among likely voters. In the new poll, Proposition 188 is opposed, 55% to 37%, among likely voters.

Just under half the registered voters polled said they are now aware that the major financial backers of the measure--which would repeal all local no-smoking laws and replace them with a milder statewide standard--are tobacco industry interests. Once aware of that support, 41% of registered voters say they are less likely to favor the measure and 5% say they are more likely to back it.

“When people know that the tobacco industry is behind it, they turn against it,” Brennan said.

Proposition 186, which calls for a state-run health system, continues to fare poorly across California. Forty percent of likely voters said they were unfamiliar with the measure. Once it was explained, they opposed it by a 69%-23% margin--compared to a 64%-25% margin two weeks ago.

A fourth major issue, Proposition 184 or the “three strikes” crime initiative, remains well ahead among likely voters when it is explained, 57% to 32%. A sizable 38% remain unfamiliar with the measure.

The Times Poll conducted telephone interviews with 1,659 adults statewide, including 1,235 registered voters and 762 likely voters, from Saturday through Tuesday. The margin of sampling error for registered voters is 3 points in either direction; for likely voters it is 4 points in either direction. The margin of error for certain subgroups of voters may be somewhat higher.

Since the last Times poll, conducted Oct. 8 to 11, Proposition 187 has spawned a flurry of endorsements, ads and demonstrations.

On the side favoring Proposition 187, Gov. Pete Wilson has launched a pair of TV commercials urging voters to support the measure and Republican Senate candidate Mike Huffington has also issued an endorsement. The opposition forces--which have long included such mainstream organizations as the state PTA, the state League of Women Voters and the California Medical Assn.--have proved much more active.

During the last two weeks, various Proposition 187 opponents have kicked off their own radio ad campaign, sponsored a rash of school walkouts and led an Eastside to Downtown Los Angeles march attended by an estimated 70,000 protesters. They have also added significantly to the list of public officials against the measure.

Among those newly urging a “no” vote have been President Clinton and Sen. Dianne Feinstein on the Democratic side, and William J. Bennett and Jack Kemp on the Republican side. Groups weighing in against it have ranged from Washington-based Zero Population Growth to the Board of Rabbis of Southern California.

In the last two weeks, voters have also received their state ballot pamphlets, which include the specific wording of the measure, as well as pro and con arguments and an in-depth report by the legislative analyst’s office.

During that period, the only demographic group in which support has not dropped at all has been voters 65 and older, who now favor the measure by a 60%-29% split.

Despite the anti-Proposition 187 endorsements by Kemp and Bennett, voters who identify themselves as conservatives have also barely shifted. They now favor the measure 68% to 22%, compared to 72% to 20% two weeks ago. Support among registered Republicans has dipped a bit more--67% to 21%--compared to a 75%-19% figure two weeks ago.

Among several other groups, however, the initiative has taken a severe tumble.

Among Latinos, the support for Proposition 187 has dropped 24 points in two weeks. Among Democrats, support has dropped 13 points.

Groups showing the largest decline in support include liberals, now 63% to 31% against Proposition 187, compared to 48% to 46% against it two weeks ago.

The poll also showed a gender gap in the battle. Male voters favor Proposition 187 by a 56% to 35% margin. Women favor it 47% to 42%, down from 61% to 30% just two weeks ago.

The changing level of support is particularly marked among Democratic women--an 18-point nose dive in support in the last two weeks. Previously, they supported the measure 53% to 37%; now, they oppose it 56% to 35%.

The measure remains ahead because many moderates and independents continue to support it. These swing voters could decide the fate of the initiative.

Despite the heightened interest in Proposition 187, it has apparently not resulted in a surge in voter registration. Only 3% of those opposing the measure said they had registered in the past three months; only 2% of those in favor said they had done so.

With less than two weeks before the only poll that really counts, responses to the Times Poll show there is ample ground for movement that could sway the final vote either way.

About a quarter of the voters said they were either undecided or might still change their minds. Roughly equal numbers on either side--about 80%--say they have definitely made up their minds.

“It makes for a fluid situation,” Brennan said.

Among the poll respondents who have moved into the “no” column in recent weeks is a Studio City screenwriter who said that after reading newspapers and his ballot pamphlet, he has become convinced that the measure “doesn’t attack the crux of the problem--which is people getting into the country illegally.”

“The people in here already are here for better or for worse,” the 32-year-old writer said. “But displacing thousands of kids now in school would trigger a whole other set of problems.”

Echoing his thoughts was a Northern California school psychologist, who said: “I’ve kind of gone back and forth on this, but now plan on voting no.

“I feel real strongly about people coming into this country illegally,” she said. “But I don’t want to see kids in the streets not taken care of.”

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll interviewed 1,659 adults statewide, by telephone, Saturday through Tuesday. Included in the sample are 1,235 registered voters and 762 likely voters. Interviewing was conducted in English and Spanish. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the state. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and unlisted numbers could be contacted. The sample was weighted slightly to conform more closely with census figures for sex, race, age and education. The margin of sampling error for the total sample and the sample of all registered voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points; for likely voters it is 4 points. For certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as the wording of questions and the order in which they are presented.

More on Immigration

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Closer Contests

Less than two weeks before Election Day, support for Proposition 187 has dropped measurably while the race for governor has tightened, the latest Los Angeles Times poll has found.

If the November, 1994, general election for governor of California were being held today, for whom would you vote?

-10/25- -10/11- -9/11- Registered Likely Reg. Likely Reg. Likely voters voters voters voters voters voters Kathleen Brown 45% 43% 42% 41% 44% 41% Pete Wilson 48% 52% 50% 54% 46% 50% Someone else 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% Don’t know 6% 4% 7% 4% 9% 8%

****

(AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS)

What is your impression of Brown? Favorable: 47% Unfavorable: 40% What is your impression of Wilson? Favorable: 49% Unfavorable: 45% Why do you like Brown?** Nothing in particular/Just like her: 16% Like her father; brother/Like her family: 10% Her views are like mine: 9% Why do you like Wilson?** His views on crime: 17% His views on illegal immigration/Supports Prop. 187: 16% His record as governor: 12% Why do you dislike Brown?** Dislike her father; brother/Dislike her family: 24% She’s too liberal: 12% She’s too wishy-washy: 11% Why do you dislike Wilson?** Does nothing/He’s ineffective: 10% His views on illegal immigration/Supports Prop. 187: 10% Policies hurt education: 10% ****

Which candidate for governor: Wilson Brown

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How has Wilson’s support for/Brown’s opposition to Prop. 187 affected your vote for governor?

Wilson’s support Brown’s opposition of Prop. 187 to Prop. 187 More likely to vote 30% 23% Less like to vote 24% 27% No effect 44% 49% Don’t know 2% 1%

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(AMONG LIKELY VOTERS)

Prop. 187 (The Illegal Aliens, Ineligibility for Public Services, Verification and Reporting Initiative)

When the ballot wording is read When a description is read Vote for 47% 51% Vote against 37% 41% Don’t know 16% 8%

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(AMONG LIKELY VOTERS) Why are you voting for Prop. 187?** Do something about illegal immigration: 35% Stop immigrants from using public services: 18% Will save tax money: 15% Citizens can’t get benefits: 13% Why are you voting against Prop. 187?** Will take children out of school/Could increase crime: 24% Won’t work/Doesn’t solve problem/Poorly written: 20% It’s inhumane: 15% Racist/Anti-Latino/Anti-Mexican: 14% ****

(AMONG LIKELY VOTERS)

Prop. 184 (The Increased Sentences Repeat Offenders Initiative Statute)

When the ballot wording is read When a description is read Vote for 43% 57% Vote against 19% 32% Don’t know 38% 11%

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Prop. 186 (The Health Services, Taxes, Initiative Constitutional Amendment)

When the ballot wording is read When a description is read Vote for 16% 23% Vote against 44% 69% Don’t know 40% 8%

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Prop. 188 (The Smoking and Tobacco Products, Local Preemption, Statewide Regulation Initiative)

When the ballot wording is read When a description is read Vote for 21% 37% Vote against 43% 55% Don’t know 36% 8%

Note: Numbers may not add up to 100 because not all categories are shown

** Accepted two replies. Top mentioned items displayed.

Source: L.A. Times polls of California voters.