Prop. 187 Backers Counting on Message, Not Strategy

For months, the California ballot measure known as Proposition 187--which has focused attention nationwide on the divisive issue of illegal immigration--enjoyed runaway support in spite of an official campaign that is ill-financed, loosely organized and at times seemingly adrift.

Pro-187 forces, unable to hire a big-name consultant or mount an effective advertising effort, instead relied on Gov. Pete Wilson and others to carry their message on the airwaves.

In the critical days before the election, the movement’s most colorful advocate is touring South Africa and its enigmatic, secretive chairman is so uncomfortable with the press that he flees from some journalists, refuses to talk to others and barely conceals his disdain for most of the rest. Initiative proponents are often unavailable for public forums or stay away to avoid hostile opponents.

In the face of such shortcomings, however, proponents have banked on The Message: the widely held perception that an “invasion” of illegal immigrants is causing economic hardship and eroding the lifestyles of U.S. citizens and authorized immigrants.

This no-strategy strategy seemed destined to produce an extraordinary electoral success--until now. Abruptly the scenario anti-187 activists have long predicted, that voter approval would fall as Election Day nears, appears to be coming to pass.

The latest Los Angeles Times Poll shows that support for the initiative has dropped dramatically--from a comfortable 26-point cushion earlier this month to a 10-point margin last week. The Field Poll records a parallel decline in approval rates for Proposition 187, which would bar illegal immigrants from receiving public school education and any of the limited publicly funded non-emergency health care programs they now qualify for, including immunizations and prenatal care.

In another campaign, experts say, such a surge in opposition might prompt a brisk counter-response by advocates. A barrage of commercials would serve to reinforce the all-important central message, quell growing doubts and reassure the elderly and other core backers.

“Right now I would think they would need to recap what’s going on, assess the damages, and see what direction they want to take the campaign,” said Donna Lucas, a Sacramento-based political consultant. “They need to be going into the last two weeks with a proactive strategy.”

But Ron S. Prince, the Tustin accountant who is chairman of the pro-187 forces, almost bristles at the suggestion of a tactical rethinking, stressing the “grass-roots” origins of an initiative placed on the ballot with more than 600,000 signatures.

“We’re just going to keep on doing what we’re doing, and then we’ll all wait and see on Election Day how it works,” Prince said in his characteristically hushed voice after a public meeting of pro-187 forces in a Garden Grove bank building last week. “We’re down so close to the election that there really isn’t a lot of time to worry.”

In reality, the pro-187 campaign and its allies are switching gears, calling in volunteers, accelerating fund-raising efforts and hitting the airwaves. “For us to let up and coast to a victory is something we really don’t know how to do,” said Prince, who leaped from obscurity to become a kind of Howard Jarvis of the contentious immigration debate.

Whether the slippage now evident in the polls will continue remains to be seen. Though a landslide now seems unlikely, the measure still appears destined for passage.

“I’d rather be in our shoes than in our opponents’ shoes,” said Alan C. Nelson, former U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service commissioner who is a co-author of the measure.

Whatever happens on Nov. 8, proponents have indisputably scored a tremendous success. Their ill-funded movement, born in suburban living rooms throughout California, has helped shift the terms of the nation’s great debate on immigration, possibly for a generation or longer. And it has put pressure on the Clinton Administration to take action, including bolstering enforcement at the U.S.-Mexico border.

“We’ve already won,” said Robert R. Kiley, the Yorba Linda-based consultant who is managing the campaign. “After this passes in November, it’s going from state to state to state.”

Despite backers’ clear accomplishments and still-comfortable lead in the polls, voter surveys show that opponents’ aggressive campaign tactics have managed to engender the kernel of doubt essential for any “No” campaign.

“Generally speaking, if you give someone a reason to vote ‘no’ on something they’ll do it,” said Arnold Steinberg, a political strategist who usually works with Republicans.

It is a fact not lost on the measure’s supporters. With barely a week left until Election Day, the California Republican Party--already a major financial contributor--is touting Proposition 187 with 2 million “door-hangers,” urging residents to vote “yes,” as well as in slate mailers addressed to targeted households. GOP volunteers are also working the telephones to help overcome the fund-raising lag.

On the media front, Wilson--who has made Proposition 187 a mainstay of his reelection campaign--began airing two new television commercials last week reaffirming his support. This week, a series of pro-187 radio spots is scheduled to hit the airwaves statewide.

The ads, analysts agree, will help. But, already trailing in fund-raising by almost 3 to 1, pro-187 forces acknowledge that a shortage of cash is making it increasingly difficult to disseminate their message--just as the other side has bolstered its campaign against the proposition.

“It’s very frustrating,” said Barbara A. Coe, who heads the California Coalition for Immigration Reform. The Huntington Beach-based umbrella organization is a co-sponsor of Proposition 187 and is among those bankrolling the radio campaign.

Although the official initiative committee is lagging in fund raising, assists from Wilson and other allies have provided a considerable boost, giving the measure much more exposure than the opposition.

The campaign recently solicited contributions from hundreds of supporters who previously donated an average of $23. On Friday, supporters held their first major fund-raiser at an Anaheim eatery. Along with generating much-needed cash, the $20-per-person event was also designed to attract media attention to the pro-187 effort.

Seeking out journalists is a novel step for a campaign unusually wary about the press.

In fact, Prince himself once fled from reporters and has refused to speak to several whose articles he disliked. Organizers were so outraged when the Orange County Register recently printed the address of the pro-187 campaign headquarters--along with a photograph of the building--that supporters accused the newspaper of endangering lives.

“All they omitted was a map and a loaded .45 handgun!” the California Coalition for Immigration Reform declared in its newsletter.

Normally routine press etiquette--such as returning reporters’ telephone messages and providing information packets--has proved problematic for the pro-187 leadership, making it more difficult for journalists to report advocates’ viewpoints. By contrast, the comparatively well-financed opposition has eagerly courted the media.

At the pro-187 session in Garden Grove last week, a pervasive dread of the press prevailed. Speakers and members of the audience alike spoke of the “liberal media” being engaged in an orchestrated “smear” campaign.

Beyond what they perceive as biased news accounts, many are outraged about attempts by anti-proposition forces to confront and shout down 187 representatives and link the measure to a New York foundation that critics call white supremacist. The allegation is heatedly denied by the foundation and assailed by proposition backers.

“Not only is the opposition better financed, but they’re ruthless, and they’ve tried to shut people up,” said Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-Huntington Beach), who spoke at the meeting here and has made a name for himself as a hard-liner on illegal immigration. “I think people are being confused by this incredible propaganda barrage that is being unleashed on them.”

Unlawful immigrants, Rohrabacher told the audience, represent the “liberal/left foot soldiers in the next decade.”

The crowd of 100 or so who came to listen to an array of pro-187 pitches provides a window of sorts into the core support for Proposition 187. Participants were overwhelmingly white suburbanites, including many elderly. Most of them are clearly troubled by population shifts that, they said, have rapidly transformed their once-familiar communities into strange and dangerous places where English is heard less and less. Illegal immigration is to blame, they all agreed.

“We are becoming a Third World state,” said Robert Lacey, a computer executive who traveled from Riverside County to attend. Many of his neighbors have opted to leave California, he noted, adding that his home’s value had plummeted and his wife had found it difficult to find work because she could not speak Spanish.

Expressing skepticism about the latest poll results, proponents theorize that respondents are hesitant to show their real feelings about the volatile issue and may be deliberately misleading pollsters.

“Supporters are going underground, declining to state their intention,” said Barbara Kiley, the mayor of Yorba Linda and state co-chairwoman of Proposition 187. (She is also the wife of Robert Kiley, the campaign consultant.) “They get intimidated.”

Yet outside consultants who watch the polls closely say pro-187 organizers can blame themselves in part for the measure’s apparent nose-dive in popularity, faulting a contradictory campaign strategy.

In attempting to counter near-apocalyptic charges that the passage of Proposition 187 will spread disease and crime, Wilson and other adherents have themselves downplayed short-term impacts should the measure pass. The proposal to ban illegal immigrants from public schools and other major provisions will inevitably face court challenges that will delay implementation for years, they stress.

“As much as I’d like to see services to the undocumented stopped immediately,” Barbara Kiley said, “I don’t believe that’s going to happen.”

Although reassuring to some, such statements inevitably dilute the point, observers say.

“That’s a weak message,” said Allan Hoffenblum, a Los Angeles Republican political consultant. “They need something stronger.”

Also narrowing Proposition 187’s once-commanding lead, observers agree, is the broadening base of opposition. Recent denunciations by Jack F. Kemp and William J. Bennett, both prominent Republicans, may have provided conservatives and moderates in both parties with right-wing “cover” for their opposition.

A general lack of cohesion within the pro-187 camp is testament to the unwieldy nature of the campaign, which was born in neighborhood meetings and quickly mushroomed into a loose-knit, statewide coalition.

Often, members in different regions and positions have varying agendas and largely call their own shots.

One major faction consists of a group of seasoned political veterans headed by two proposition co-authors: ex-immigration commissioner Nelson and his former West Coast lieutenant, Harold W. Ezell. The pair broke away from the principal group this year to form Americans Against Illegal Immigration, which is focusing on the fight at the national level.

The central “Save Our State” campaign committee is composed of a separate, less experienced nucleus of supporters led by Prince. His two state co-chairpersons are Yorba Linda Mayor Kiley and Assemblyman Richard L. Mountjoy (R-Arcadia). A group of Bay Area supporters directs the Northern California front.

Although united by the cause, the coalition has splintered on personality issues, most notably between Prince and Ezell, two men with vastly different styles. Prince’s reticent, press-shy comportment stands in stark contrast to the hail-fellow-well-met demeanor of the gregarious Ezell, who has been known to return reporters’ calls from the other side of the world, even about stories critical of his often-provocative behavior.

Initiative backers have turned down some requests for appearances, Prince acknowledged, citing a limited number of volunteers to participate. And some sponsors seemed biased, he added.

The pro-187 committee is also avoiding forums “where there are combative situations,” noted Kiley, the campaign consultant. “We don’t want to put our people in jeopardy.”

Such selective appearances, observers said, reflect a strategy based on a belief in the inevitability of victory.

“The pro side didn’t really have a strategy,” said Steinberg, the political consultant.

“The pro side took passage as fait accompli. “

Although proposition organizers have endeavored to keep their public focus on illegal immigration, the lack of cohesiveness among pro-187 forces has sometimes led to mixed messages between Prince’s measured pronouncements and the more incendiary rhetoric from his allies in a movement that has clearly tapped into a popular vein of discontent.

“Multiculturalism” is the favored target of Ruth Coffey, a pro-187 activist who runs Stop Immigration Now--a member organization of the California Coalition for Immigration Reform, the initiative co-sponsor--from her cluttered Long Beach apartment.

“I have no intention of being the object of ‘conquest,’ peaceful or otherwise, by Latinos, Asians, blacks, Arabs or any other group of individuals who have claimed my country,” Coffey wrote recently.

Another outspoken Proposition 187 supporter, Glenn Spencer, who heads a Sherman Oaks-based group called the Voice of Citizens Together, has characterized illegal immigration as “part of a reconquest of the American Southwest by foreign Hispanics.”

Spencer added:

“Someone is going to be leaving the state. It will either be them or us.”

Times staff writers Doreen Carvajal and Paul Feldman contributed to this story.