Point of Impact : Before It Has Even Come to a Vote, Proposition 187 Has Sent Shock Waves Through Central Los Angeles’ Vast Immigrant Population and the Institutions That Provide for It.

The young men selling fake identification documents at MacArthur Park are looking forward to a boom season, thanks to Proposition 187.

A couple of miles away, at H. Claude Hudson Comprehensive Health Center in South-Central, officials are worried. Staff members may be required to spend their time and resources trying to determine whether their patients are U.S. citizens.

And southeast of Downtown, at Huntington Park High School, a top student is waiting nervously to see if her dreams of studying engineering in college will be dashed because she is an illegal immigrant from Mexico.

“I don’t want my education to go to waste,” said the 18-year-old senior. “A lot of people who are undocumented are very smart and very bright. They come here to succeed, not to cause trouble.”

Yet many residents throughout Los Angeles, including the city’s core, believe the measure can help improve living conditions by stemming illegal immigration.

Without question, the weight of Proposition 187--which would deny public services such as non-emergency health care and education to illegal immigrants--would land heavily in the heart of the Central City.

Nowhere else, activists and officials say, is the concentration of illegal immigrants found on such a scale as in places such as Downtown, Pico-Union, Westlake, Bell Gardens, Huntington Park and South Gate. Perhaps one-fifth of the estimated 1.5 million illegal immigrants living in California reside in the Central City or the Southeast area, activists say.

Illegal immigrant students fill local schools. Health clinics treat illegal immigrants of all ages. The garment industry and other businesses depend almost exclusively on low-wage laborers, many of them undocumented. And street vendors, some selling fruits or chips and others selling fake documents, frequently have entered the country illegally.

“In terms of numbers, no other area is going to be as impacted,” said Fernando J. Guerra, associate professor of political science and Chicano studies at Loyola Marymount University. “But nobody is sure about how it will play out.”

Although support for the measure has eroded as Election Day approaches, recent polls indicate that about half of all likely voters favor the initiative, with a small but potentially crucial number undecided. Proponents acknowledge that Proposition 187 may intensify hard times for many local families, but they are so frustrated by illegal immigration that they are convinced something drastic must be done immediately. They say legal residents deserve better services for their tax dollars.

“I feel strongly about the fact that (illegal immigrants) are here getting services. I don’t feel it’s fair to people who come here legally or were born here, like myself,” said Bill Baum, 71, a South Gate resident for 53 years who was born in East Los Angeles.

At El Rescate, a community agency in Pico-Union, officials said the threat of Proposition 187 has already scared away some illegal immigrants.

“There are people who are making whatever arrangements they can to leave the country,” said Jaime Flores, the agency’s social services director. “They ask if El Rescate will help financially for their return home, which we don’t do. About 15 families have left the United States in the last two and a half months without waiting to see if Proposition 187 will pass.”

Ron Prince, chairman of the campaign known as Save Our State, argues that illegal residents are bound to leave California because of the initiative. Los Angeles is one of the cities that could benefit most from such changes, he said.

“The point of the initiative is to ensure that public services are provided to legal residents,” Prince said. “Presently we are denigrating the quality of services.”

But agencies that would be required by law to refuse services to illegal immigrants are expecting costs to shoot through the roof. And some activists warn that economic opportunities in the city would decrease even further.

“Just imagine what would happen to the garment industry,” said Juan Jose Gutierrez, executive director of One Stop Immigration & Educational Center. “It’s sweat labor. Who would take those jobs?”

To Gutierrez and others, Proposition 187 could easily lead to higher prices and even the loss of jobs as employers move away from the city.

“The snowball effect, in my opinion, would be catastrophic for the economy,” he said.

For city youths, the measure could be especially jarring. The tension already generated by Proposition 187 has been vented in student walkouts and protest marches from Huntington Park to Chatsworth.

Officials with the Los Angeles Unified School District, although unable to tell how many of their 640,000 students are illegal, are convinced the measure would severely affect all youths.

One major concern, officials said, is that the district stands to lose $628 million in federal funding if it violates the federal Family Educational Rights and Privacy Act, which prevents schools from releasing information about students without parental consent. The loss of federal funds could mean that 10,000 teachers and other employees would be laid off, officials said.

In addition, the district would lose $105 million in state revenue for every 25,000 students who left the system.

No one knows how many of Huntington Park High School’s 4,100 students--97% of whom are Latino--are in the area illegally. But for those who are, apprehension grows as the election nears.

The girl who hopes to study engineering has a 3.8 grade point average, is ranked ninth out of 650 students in her class and is president of three school clubs. Tears filled her eyes as she talked about the uncertainty that she and her 13-year-old brother, an honor student at Nimitz Middle School, face.

“I know that I’m going to go to college--that’s for sure,” said the girl, who came to the United States from Mexico City in 1985.

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At community colleges, the doors would be shut even to those illegal immigrants who are now paying higher fees than usual to improve themselves.

Illegal immigrants taking classes at all California community colleges now must pay non-resident fees--a cost of $137 per unit at Los Angeles City College, for example, compared to $13 per unit for state residents. Those students would not be allowed to enroll if Proposition 187 is enforced, and the loss of funds could create a substantial ripple effect, officials said.

For instance, the 900 non-resident students at Los Angeles City College generate more than $2 million a year, roughly 10% of the school’s budget, said Bennie Padilla, the college’s foreign student adviser. The college is unsure how many non-resident students are undocumented, but Padilla is sure that some are. And he worries that many of them would drop out if the initiative passes, even if its enforcement is initially blocked by lawsuits.

The college would lose state funding because it receives money based on the numbers of students enrolled, Padilla said.

“It wouldn’t be beneficial to have less students because we would have to lay off teachers,” he said. “It would have a negative impact because we wouldn’t have enough students to sustain certain programs.”

And students like Jose Jimenez would be out of luck.

Jimenez, 30, a second-year student at Los Angeles City College, moved to Los Angeles from Mexico three years ago. Jimenez is a blind illegal immigrant who came to the United States to study and to find work.

“In Mexico, there’s no special office for the disabled,” he said. “It’s really difficult if you’re blind even to get a high school education, and it’s almost impossible to get a university degree.”

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Outside the classrooms, local officials worry that Proposition 187 would further stretch inadequate public health care resources.

Officials at the Los Angeles County Department of Health Services anticipate a first-year net cost of about $38.2 million if they adhere to the screenings and other requirements of Proposition 187.

One recent afternoon at the Hudson health center, close to 100 people crowded the noisy waiting room, some cradling sick children, others coughing and shivering in sweaters and jackets despite the warm weather.

Urzina Graciela Morales, 52, an illegal immigrant from El Salvador, was fearful about public health care being cut off.

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“Without medical care, there will be a greater chance of contamination,” said Morales, who lives with her adult daughter. “But we still don’t have any intention of leaving. So long as this country exists and there is work available, people will continue to come.”

Officials said the center serves as many as 25,000 patients a month. Carolyn Clark, the center’s chief administrator, said roughly 25% of these patients probably are undocumented. Proposition 187 would require extensive screening of patients to determine whether they are legal, she said.

“We would have to retrain the existing staff,” Clark said. “Also, it’s going to require a great deal of additional paperwork and follow-up.”

Irene Riley, chief of governmental relations for the Health Services Department, said Proposition 187 will also strain the county’s five other comprehensive health centers, 39 clinics and six hospitals. The initiative could save the county $9 million a year in health expenditures, but those savings would be gobbled up by additional workload costs totaling an estimated $47.2 million, Riley said.

Although some of those initial costs would not apply in following years, Riley said the additional workload costs would continue to prevent any net savings.

Prince and other Proposition 187 supporters acknowledge that the initial transition period ould be difficult, but say the end result under the measure will be better services and more taxpayer money available for legal residents.

The proponents predict the city will see an exodus of illegal immigrants who are causing an unfair strain on everyone. As soon as free health services and schools are no longer available to illegal immigrants, parents will take their children back to their homelands, they say.

For residents like James Coleman, a longtime activist in the city, the reasons for supporting Proposition 187 come down to enough is enough.

“We’re not going to be forced to pay for these things,” said Coleman, a member of the Black Education Commission of the Los Angeles Unified School District. “Public dollars are being spent for illegal immigrants.”

In Los Angeles, the bulk of illegal immigrants come from Mexico or Central America, while others come from places like South Korea, the Philippines and Canada.

Coleman said he recognizes that many opponents of the measure worry that it is nothing more than a smoke screen for racists, but that is not his motivation.

“What we’re doing is no more mean-spirited than locking your front door at home,” he said. “When you break laws, when you come here illegally you know you’re wrong and you live in shame.”

Coleman and others said that newcomers who follow proper procedures in order to become naturalized citizens are welcome.

But opponents insist that most illegal immigrants will not return to their homelands, but will go deeper underground to survive.

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Los Angeles police officials may find officers hustling to keep up with an increase in illegal activity if Proposition 187 passes, most notably the sale of fake identification documents known as “ micas .”

Mario Vasquez Avila, who sells fake documents at MacArthur Park, is counting on an increase in business. Against a backdrop of newsstands filled with magazines from Mexico and Central America, sleeping men drooped over dilapidated park benches and women hawking mangoes topped with powdered red chile and lime, Avila recently worked the steady stream of passersby.

“ Micas, micas, micas !” the 21-year-old called out.

For $100, customers can buy a package including a driver’s license, resident alien card and a Social Security card.

Avila, dressed in a polo shirt and white jeans, exuded all the confidence of a budding entrepreneur. A beeper was attached to his belt.

“The only difference between me and the foreign businessman that goes to Mexico to make money is that I’m here illegally,” he said, adjusting his sunglasses. “Eventually, I want to save enough money so I can go back to Mexico City and invest it in something real, like a shoe store.”

Avila said most of his customers are Latino, but that he also makes deals with many Asian and Filipino immigrants. Sometimes, underage Anglos seek fake driver’s licenses so that they can enter bars or nightclubs, he said.

Chief Willie L. Williams said recently that he opposes the initiative for several reasons, including concerns that more youths may be lured into criminal activities because they have nothing else to do.

Some officers say they have other concerns as well.

“I’m more worried about them getting bashed since they’ll really be viewed as second-rate people. (I’m worried) about immigrant bashing in general,” said Sgt. Mike Diaz of the LAPD’s Rampart Division.

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For city residents and voters statewide, the time has come to make a decision on Proposition 187. Some are more sure of how they will vote than others.

Leila Campos, co-chair and treasurer of the Eastside-based United Neighborhoods Organization, is convinced the measure is racist.

“I feel they’re taking the rights away from the children, a lot of whom are citizens because they were born here” but who could be uprooted because their parents are illegal immigrants, she said. “The education system is the pits already and this will take a lot of money from the schools.”

And Kathy Imahara, a civil rights attorney at the Asian Pacific American Legal Center, predicted wholesale deprivation of rights.

“The anti-immigrant sentiment will lead to discrimination of entire racial groups, much like what happened during World War II with the Japanese internment,” Imahara said. “I am Japanese American and my family has been here since the 1800s, but people always assume that I am a foreigner. After this proposition passes who knows what will happen?”

But Richard Marshall, 72, of South-Central, a retired engineer and master chief petty officer in the Navy, said he backs 187 because he believes undocumented workers take away jobs from legal residents seeking work.

“A good example is in the construction industry. They pay good money. Illegals get the job because employers only have to pay them $4.25 when they could be paying a black person $8 an hour,” Marshall said. “I admit it’s a hardship. But if they can’t get services because they’re illegal, they shouldn’t be here in the first place.”

And then there are residents like Celes King, co-founder of Brotherhood Crusade and state chair of the Congress of Racial Equality, who have mixed emotions.

“I’d like to see every kid have an opportunity to go as far as they possibly can in life. On the other hand, the Californian kids that are legitimate would not be able to get the full benefits of living here,” King said.

“Proposition 187 doesn’t close the border but it takes away the magnetic appeal to come here. Something has to be done to close down the added cost or no one in the state will survive.”

What It Does

Education

Current Law: Court rulings have held that undocumented children are entitled to elementary and secondary public school education. Illegal immigrants may also attend state colleges and universities, but most are charged non-resident tuition fees.

Prop. 187: Bars enrollment in all public schools and colleges. Parents or guardians of all children, including U.S. citizens, would have to prove legal residence. School officials would have to report students and parents suspected of being here illegally.

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Health Services

Current Law: Illegal immigrants can receive a wide variety of care at publicly funded hospitals and clinics. Federal law bars health facilities from denying emergency aid to anyone.

Prop. 187: Denies non-emergency public health care to those who cannot prove legal status, including prenatal and postnatal services.

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Law Enforcement

Current Law: Many local police agencies avoid getting involved in immigration matters because they believe it would discourage victims and witnesses from reporting crimes.

Prop. 187: State, city and county police agencies would be obligated to question arrestees about their citizenship or immigration status and report suspected illegal immigrants to the INS and state attorney general.

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Social Services

Current Law: Federal and state laws bar illegal immigrants from most major benefits, such as unemployment insurance and welfare.

Prop. 187: Cuts off a host of other state and locally funded programs that are directed toward troubled youths, the elderly, the blind and others with special needs.

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Documents

Current Law: The use of fraudulent documents to prove residency is illegal.

Prop. 187: Creates new state felonies and stiffens penalties.

Ethnic Makeup

Perhaps 20% of the more than 1.5 million illegal immigrants in California live in the Central City or the Southeast area. The following is a breakdown of legal and illegal residents.

Central City

Total Population: 104,917

Foreign-Born: 52.9%

Speak Spanish at Home: 44.9%

Speak Asian Language: 10.2%

Latino: 50.5%

Black: 9.1%

Asian: 24.8%

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East

Total Population: 303,997

Foreign-Born: 50.9%

Speak Spanish at Home: 78.7%

Speak Asian Language: 6%

Latino: 88.2%

Black: 1.3%

Asian: 6.1%

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Mid-City

Total Population: 423,941

Foreign-Born: 60%

Speak Spanish at Home: 53.3%

Speak Asian Language: 15.5%

Latino: 57.1%

Black: 12.8%

Asian: 16.8%

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South

Total Population: 512,304

Foreign-Born: 34.6%

Speak Spanish at Home: 47.7%

Speak Asian Language: 0.4%

Latino: 51.1%

Black: 46.8%

Asian: 0.6%

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Southwest

Total Population: 63,110

Foreign-Born: 20/1%

Speak Spanish at Home: 20.1%

Speak Asian Language: 2.2%

Latino: 21.3%

Black: 64.7%

Asian: 3.9%

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Southeast

Total Population: 296,745

Foreign-Born: 53.7%

Speak Spanish at Home: 72.4%

Speak Asian Language: Less than 1%

Latino: 87.6%

Black: Less than 1%

Asian: Less than 1%