The Issues Are There--but O.C. Voters Might Not Be : Elections: Political observers aren’t sure whether hotly debated initiatives will spur a large turnout at the polls.

In an election year when voters say they are tired of politics as usual and negative campaigning, many candidates on Tuesday’s ballot are giving the electorate more of the same.

But unlike the June primary, when voter apathy reached a 40-year high in Orange County, the ballot initiatives--not necessarily the candidates themselves--are giving voters reason to show up at the polls.

Or maybe not.

From Proposition 187, the controversial statewide ballot measure that was born in Orange County and would restrict social services and education for illegal immigrants, to the proposed plan to place a commercial airport at El Toro Marine Corps Air Station, local voters have plenty to decide on Tuesday.

In addition to casting ballots for governor, U.S. senator and other statewide officers, local voters also will be deciding on: six congressional seats; nine state legislative posts; a county supervisor’s race; 28 city council races; 13 state and local judicial posts; more than 60 school board and special district races; and 11 city measures, including a proposed $500-million development on the 121-acre Headlands promontory near Dana Point Harbor.

Still, with so much to decide, some political observers find it hard to predict whether Orange County’s 1.1 million voters will vent their anger by going to the polls, or follow the mood set in the June primary and stay home.

“For all of the excitement, a majority of the people are going to stay home,” UC Irvine political scientist Mark Petracca predicted, pointing to downward trends in voter turnout.

“I wouldn’t be surprised, for instance, if many more people vote on Proposition 187 than the total votes cast for governor or senator. Because, yes, it’s an issue that’s attracting a lot of attention,” Petracca said. “The question is: Is there any (candidate) left standing with any kind of dignity after it’s all over? That’s the tragedy.”

Orange County Registrar of Voters Donald Tanney said he expects turnout to be about the same as it was in the last gubernatorial election in 1990, when 62% of the county’s voters showed up at the polls.

Hoping to draw voter interest, candidates are making last-minute pitches on this final weekend before Election Day.

The Republican Party’s statewide slate of candidates--featuring Gov. Pete Wilson and U.S. Senate hopeful Michael Huffington--will roll into Orange County today for a rally at the Orange County Fairgrounds starting at 2 p.m.

Democratic gubernatorial candidate Kathleen Brown, meanwhile, is scheduled to make a pitch to Vietnamese Americans this afternoon during a KWIZ-FM radio program sponsored by the Westminster-based Vietnamese Community of Southern California.

It is in Orange County where Republicans for statewide office count on a 2-to-1 vote ratio--generally about 200,000 votes more than for Democrats--to offset Democratic strongholds in Los Angeles and San Francisco.

“I don’t have a written goal (for turnout). I just want to make sure that our percentages are good,” said John M. W. Moorlach, this year’s precinct advisory committee chairman for the Orange County Republican Party.

During a recent Orange County meeting, Gov. Pete Wilson challenged local Republicans to stretch the vote margin to 250,000, Moorlach said.

For Democrats, this has not been an easy year.

The man who boosted their hopes two years ago by attracting Republican cross-over voters--President Clinton--is now in a popularity slump that is doing Orange County Democrats little good.

Clinton’s only appearances in Orange County this election season were this weekend--in Los Alamitos on Friday, briefly touting a defense industry contract with U.S. Sens. Barbara Boxer and Dianne Feinstein of California shortly after Air Force One landed, and in Anaheim on Saturday where he addressed a convention of realtors.

Despite the GOP’s usual dominance in local elections, Democrats hope to be competitive in four state legislative and congressional districts that overlap in the central part of the county, as well as in the 45th Congressional District, where Democrat Brett Williamson is challenging Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-Huntington Beach).

The central Orange County seats where Democrats focused their voter registration drive are: the 46th Congressional District held by Rep. Robert K. Dornan (R-Garden Grove), the redistricted 34th state Senate seat held by Sen. Rob Hurtt (R-Garden Grove), the 68th Assembly District represented by Assemblyman Curt Pringle (R-Garden Grove), and the 69th Assembly District held by Assemblyman Tom Umberg (D-Garden Grove).

Umberg’s decision to vacate the seat to run for state attorney general has been a perilous one for the Orange County Democratic Party, which risks losing its only local legislative seat, despite a 22-point voter registration margin over Republicans in the 69th district.

Mark Q. Thompson, the campaign consultant for Jim Morrissey, the Republican who is running against Democrat Mike Metzler for Umberg’s seat, downplayed the Democratic advantage in voter registration.

“These people were pushed and shoved and cajoled into registering to vote, and you are not going to see any response to it,” Thompson said. “A lot of them are not going to vote and those that do, I am willing to bet, we get 50% of them.”

Orange County Democratic Party Chairwoman Dorianne Garcia rejected the notion.

“If that was true, Tom Umberg would not have been reelected two years ago,” Garcia said. In 1992, Umberg’s vote margin surpassed the party’s voter registration by six points.

But Garcia conceded that getting out the vote on Election Day is the Democrats’ biggest challenge.

“We take the position that every candidate is a contest and we are going to do our best,” Garcia said. “And that means working as hard as we can and walking precincts and doing phone banking.”

Hoping to boost turnout, Metzler held a pancake breakfast on Saturday that was accompanied by an offer to transport voters to the registrar of voters office to vote.

Both parties also are battling for control of the county’s 2nd Supervisorial District seat being vacated by Harriett M. Wieder, even though the post is supposed to be nonpartisan.

In political terms, there is no love lost between the two candidates, Democrat Linda Moulton Patterson and Republican Jim Silva, who have been closely watching each other’s campaigns in hopes of a decisive misstep in this runoff election.

Should Moulton Patterson win, it would be the first time in Orange County’s history that two women are seated on the five-member board. State Sen. Marian Bergeson (R-Newport Beach) won the seat being vacated by Board Chairman Thomas F. Riley in the June Primary.

The political tension created by Proposition 187 has both parties concerned. Republicans have raised suspicions that Democrats have registered non-citizens to vote, and Democrats fear that Republicans might try to intimidate minority voters at polling places in heavily ethnic precincts.

Recognizing the anxiety, the Roman Catholic Diocese of Orange has called for “peace and harmony” after the election.

“Whatever may be the outcome for Proposition 187 after Tuesday’s elections, the state of California will need the grace of healing and harmony,” church officials stated in a recent press release. “The Catholic Church in Orange County calls upon her people to pray for peace and reconciliation to cast aside the fear and bitterness that has overshadowed the state in the recent months.”

Hot Seats

Top four legislative districts in central Orange County where Democrats and Republicans are battling it out.

District Dem. GOP 34th St. Sen. 47% 42% 46th Cong. 49 41 68th Assm. 41 46 69th Assm. 56 34

County Overview

- Party breakdown of registered voters

Republicans: 52%

Democrats: 34

Declined to state: 10

All others: 4

- Election Day, Tuesday

* Polls open: 7 a.m.

* Polls close: 8 p.m.

Source: Orange County Registrar of Voters