County’s Jobless Rate for October Declines to 7.6% : Employment: Some economists are optimistic, but others say the figures are skewed by seasonal factors, especially in the educational sector.

The county’s unemployment rate dropped sharply in October, down from 8.9% in September to 7.6%, according to a report released Monday by the state employment department.

A year ago at this time, Ventura’s unemployment rate had soared to 9.4%. During October, 1993, 35,800 county residents were out of work, compared to 28,600 this October.

The biggest gain this year from September to October was in the educational sector, where 2,300 new jobs were added.

But even as several economists said they were cautiously optimistic about the local economy based on Monday’s report, they hastened to point out that the unemployment rate has been somewhat skewed by seasonal factors.

Many school employees are statistically considered unemployed during the summer recess, causing a rise in unemployment figures each spring and a drop each fall. Because September statistics are gathered fairly early in the month--just as many schools are returning to session--some people who are about to return to work are not included in that month’s survey.

“Last year, there was the same seasonal pattern,” said Cal Lutheran economics professor Dr. Ali Akbari, who runs the university’s center for economic research. “These are month to month changes.

“There are absolutely no surprises,” he added. “It’s a continuation of the same pattern that has developed here in the early 1990s.”

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As part of that pattern, Akbari and other economists say areas such as Ventura County will continue to see an increase in lower-paying service industry jobs while better-paying jobs in fields such as high technology and manufacturing dwindle.

Of the 224,600 jobs now held within the county, 76% are in service areas. Since October, 1993, 500 high-technology manufacturing jobs have been lost in the county. Overall, manufacturing has lost 1,200 jobs.

“The gains are in the service sector and the high paying jobs like high-tech manufacturing are recording losses,” Akbari said.

“The job machine is doing its job. It is creating jobs, but the types of jobs are kind of different. These are hamburger flippers and parking lot attendants. Most service industry jobs are not high paying,” he added.

But Bruce DeVine, chief economist with the Southern California Assn. of Governments, disagreed.

“Not all the manufacturing jobs that are lost or leaving the area are the high end of the scale,” DeVine said. “You might have lost 30 jobs in a sardine canning factory and gained 40 jobs in computer business services.

“In business services, educational services, health services, the wages actually average fairly high,” he said. “Certainly, there are occupations that earn more. It’s kind of hard to beat those aerospace wages.”

Larry Kennedy, manager of the state unemployment office in Simi Valley, said he has seen an improvement in the quality of job orders employers are filing with his office.

“A lot of very large private for-profit companies have placed orders in the $18- to $15-an-hour range,” Kennedy said. “The supply of unemployed people is dwindling, so employers have to boost the wages a little. We’ve got a lot of orders in the $9 to $7 range and hardly anything in the $4 to $6 range.”

But in a reflection of the larger trend away from higher paying jobs, Kennedy said October was a bleak month for unemployed middle managers and technicians enrolled in the office’s job club.

“Out of 153 people in our job club, only six went back to work last month,” he said, adding that in a good month, 15 members of the job club return to work.

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Farm employment increased by 1,700 jobs from September to October. Farm Bureau head Rex Laird said farmers were probably planting their last crops of the season during the month, accounting for the increase.

“September and October is the time of year when a lot of stuff goes back into production,” Laird said. “Especially row crops and vegetables. It takes 90 to 110 days for celery and other vegetables, so that means most of that stuff will come out in December.”

But as that harvest comes in during December, Laird said to look for a drop once again in farm employment.

“Overall, there will be an increase in unemployment during November and certainly during December and January,” he said.

Ventura County Jobless Rate (Monthly)

Source: Employment Development Department