Copter Crash Could Imperil Nuclear Pact

Clinton Administration officials began to worry Monday that North Korea’s puzzling reluctance to turn over the American pilots whose helicopter went down over its territory could, if it continues, jeopardize the entire nuclear agreement just negotiated with Pyongyang.

“I don’t know of anyone who thinks that the (nuclear) agreement can survive if they don’t produce the pilots,” one Administration official said. “Unless this issue is resolved, everything’s off.”

The American uneasiness about the impact of the helicopter incident was heightened Monday after North Korea rejected a U.S. request for high-level meetings of the U.N. Military Armistice Commission to arrange the return of the surviving Army pilot and the remains of a second pilot who died.

In talks at the truce village of Panmunjom, North Korea turned down at least three meeting times suggested by U.S. military officers, saying that they were “too busy” conducting their investigation into the incident, a U.S. spokesman said. In some past incidents, the Armistice Commission--which is responsible for supervising the cease-fire that halted the Korean War and handling armistice violations--has met to resolve problems like the helicopter incident relatively routinely and speedily.

The unusual delay this time could just be temporary, U.S. officials cautioned. It may yet turn out that North Korea will return the two Americans within the next couple of days. If so, the incident probably will turn out to be a relatively minor one, reflecting only North Korea’s inability to gather information and make decisions quickly.

But by late Monday, after Pyongyang’s continued stonewalling of American inquiries, some U.S. officials were growing increasingly concerned that the delay could have broader implications.

They and South Korean analysts were beginning to wonder whether the North Korean army--or perhaps some hard-line elements within it--might be thinking of using the American pilots to try to sabotage the nuclear deal. Under the agreement reached in October, North Korea is supposed to freeze and eventually dismantle its existing nuclear installations in exchange for a series of economic and diplomatic rewards.

These analysts speculated that the North Korean leadership is divided into dovish and hawkish factions: a dovish one concentrated in the Foreign Ministry, which negotiated the nuclear agreement with the Clinton Administration in Geneva, and a hawkish one centered in the Korean People’s Army.

“The (North Korean) military has nothing but contempt for the Foreign Ministry types,” observed one American analyst. “They are in two completely different worlds.”

And Kim Jong Il, North Korea’s not-yet-official leader, may be unable to resolve or end the infighting. Kim, the son of North Korea’s founding leader, Kim Il Sung, who died last July, has been informally named the country’s new leader but has not yet been given the formal titles of head of the government and of the ruling Communist Party.

“On the one hand, you’d think they’d want to get this (helicopter incident) over with as quickly as possible,” observed one South Korean analyst Monday. “After all, they just signed this Geneva agreement to upgrade their relations with the United States. That’s why it’s difficult to understand why they are dragging their feet. The (North Korean) military may be trying to put the brakes on putting the agreement into reality.”

Many other analysts believe that North Korea may try to use the pilots to extract some new concessions from the United States.

“I’m sure there are people in Pyongyang arguing that ‘We’ve got the (Americans) on the run. We got a very good deal in Geneva by being tough. Now let’s make the Americans come across and give something. We can get more out of these guys, whether it’s an abject apology or what,’ ” said former U.S. Ambassador to South Korea James R. Lilley, now a scholar at the American Enterprise Institute.

One possibility is that the Communist regime may be trying to bargain for separate peace talks with the United States rather than through the United Nations’ commission at Panmunjom. Pyongyang began boycotting meetings of the U.S.-led commission after it appointed a South Korean general as chairman in 1991.

The United States has rejected Pyongyang’s calls for a separate agreement, however, because it would bypass South Korea. Any peace agreement must be negotiated between North and South, both Washington and Seoul have agreed.

At the State Department, spokesman Mike McCurry acknowledged that the Clinton Administration has told North Korea it “cannot understand” the reasons for the delay.

“The American people will in some sense form a judgment about North Korea based on how North Korea responds to our repeated requests for more information and more details about the incident,” he added.

The helicopter went down on Saturday morning in Korea (Friday night in the United States). Ever since then, the United States has been pressing for an immediate return of the captured pilot, Chief Warrant Officer Bobby Hall, and the remains of his co-pilot, Chief Warrant Officer David Hilemon.

“The North Koreans haven’t had any reluctance in the past in meeting with us,” a U.S. official said. “This (the Military Armistice Commission) is a well-used channel.”

In addition to its requests, the Clinton Administration has also sent messages to the Pyongyang regime through North Korean diplomats at the United Nations in New York City. But Administration officials acknowledged that this diplomatic channel may be of limited utility, because the party most directly involved in holding the pilots is the Korean People’s Army.

In New York, a North Korean diplomat said that the repatriation will occur soon--but he also urged the United States to conclude a peace treaty “as soon as possible” to prevent another tragedy from occurring, according to the South Korean newspaper Hankyoreh Shinmun.

“I expect in the current amicable atmosphere between (North Korea) and the United States, the surviving pilot and remains of the dead one will soon be repatriated,” the unnamed diplomat was quoted as saying. “It is unfortunate a human life was sacrificed in this time of peace. This has much to do with the current cease-fire agreement.”

Mann reported from Washington, Watanabe from Seoul.