CAMARILLO : Estimate of Civilian Use of Base Revised

A joint civilian and military airport at the Point Mugu Navy base would attract only a limited number of commuter airline operations and would probably be used by 500,000 to 1 million passengers annually by the year 2010, a study released late Tuesday shows.

Compiled by consultants for the Southern California Assn. of Governments, the study was initially sent back for revision after its contents indicated far more conservative passenger estimates than SCAG aviation analysts originally predicted for the airport.

But during a meeting of the Point Mugu Airfield Investigative Committee in January, Tim Merwin, SCAG’s chief aviation analyst, conceded that the conservative report by the Ohio-based consulting firm Landrum & Brown was probably a more accurate forecast of civilian use of the 11,000-foot Navy airfield. At that meeting, Merwin said that he estimated that a maximum of 500,000 passengers would use the facility by 2010.

Merwin could not be reached Tuesday to explain the discrepancy in passenger estimates.

The report, the bulk of which was first made public in news reports last month, states that airlines such as United, Delta, America West and Alaska could be among the carriers lured to the facility to begin feeder operations to Los Angeles International Airport or limited short-haul service.

However, consultants did not directly interview the individual airlines and a spokesman for the Airline Transport Assn.--an industry clearinghouse--refused to speculate on which, if any, airlines would agree to set up operations at Point Mugu.

Last week, the Ventura County Board of Supervisors agreed to join a joint powers authority that would run the proposed airport.

The authority will take over for the investigative committee which will hold its last meeting Feb. 16 at 7:30 p.m. at county Department of Airports offices, 555 Airport Way, Camarillo.