Wilson Choice on Presidential Bid Is Pressing

Gov. Pete Wilson now is seriously thinking about entering the 1996 presidential race and already has come to one conclusion: “You can’t dawdle on the decision.”

Which is a key decision in itself, because there are two basic theories about his best running tactics--the delayed sprint and the marathon.

In the delayed sprint, Wilson would enter late, skip the Iowa caucuses and probably the New Hampshire primary and run all-out in a few big states. In a marathon, which seems to be what he envisions, the governor would kick it into gear within a few months, if not weeks.

“By the spring probably,” a top aide replied when asked how long Wilson could delay jumping into the race. “He’s seriously looking at it but really hasn’t made a decision.”

The governor made his “can’t dawdle” observation last week in a C-SPAN interview amid a shower of heady attention by the national news media. “There’s a lot of scrambling going on,” Wilson noted, referring to candidate fund raising, organizing and schmoozing of local pols.

“It’s become very, very difficult. The next (race) will be different than anything that we have seen before. . . . The timetable has been collapsed and advanced. It looks as though it will be sort of a television shootout from New Hampshire on through the end of March--something like 60% to 70% of the delegates (will be) selected. . . . A candidate considering it probably has to make the decision very early.”

In truth, to win the GOP nomination, a candidate probably will have to run the marathon as if it were a sprint. Especially a candidate such as Wilson, who is unknown to voters outside his home state and doesn’t register even a blip in national polls.

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This has created parochial concerns among some local Republicans, who realistically fear that if Wilson is focused on the Oval Office, he’ll merely be going through the motions in Sacramento.

Even if the governor began soliciting campaign money March 1, he’d have to take in $65,400 a day to raise $20 million by next January. That would require many hours on the phone each week. He’d also be flying back and forth across the country campaigning. And Democratic Lt. Gov. Gray Davis legally would be subbing for him, plus assuming his office if this venture were successful.

The California Republican Assembly, a group of activist conservatives that never has trusted Wilson, recently fired a shot across his bow. The group’s board adopted a resolution “commending” the governor for not running and putting “what is best as a whole” for California, the nation and the party “ahead of personal political ambition.” Abandoning the governor’s office to a Democrat, the CRA said, would be “unthinkable.”

The whispered spin of Wilson operatives is that Davis would only occupy the governor’s office for two years, then easily be beaten in the next gubernatorial election. Anyway, say the spinsters, Republicans practically control the Legislature.

But GOP state senators also are troubled and have asked Wilson to meet with them for a frank chat.

“I am very worried that a candidate Wilson will not be able to leave a legacy of achievement in California,” says Senate GOP Caucus Chairman Bill Leonard of San Bernardino. “This 1995-96 legislative session is his time to achieve great successes. If he’s a candidate, his mind will be diverted. Legislators of both parties will be able to jerk his chain almost at will. If he doesn’t do it now, he’ll be known only as a governor who could manage well during crises and natural disasters.”

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But California issues are of little concern to big picture handicappers, who look at Wilson’s strengths and weaknesses as a presidential prospect and see a hot horse.

His main strength, as is every California governor’s: This is the biggest state, with 20% of the electoral votes needed to win. Also: The state’s presidential primary has been moved up to March 26. Wilson has a great resume--mayor, U.S. Senator, governor--but still can run against Washington as an angry outsider. He is in tune with voters on issues. And the field of candidates just narrowed.

His weaknesses among GOP activists: He raised taxes a record amount and favors abortion rights. He also promised when campaigning for reelection last year that he’d serve a full term; any presidential bid wouldn’t be until 2000.

But “the national spotlight shines only so many times,” notes veteran GOP strategist Sal Russo. “When the spotlight comes on, you’d better grab your cane, get out there and do your dance.”

That’s what many people are advising Wilson: Timing is everything in politics and if he ever wants to be President, his time may be now.