At ShoWest, Hope Springs Eternal for Hot Summer : Movies: NATO/ShoWest convention opens today in Las Vegas as moviegoing lags in the first quarter of 1995. ‘Business is terrible,’ says one marketer.

In Jack Valenti’s annual state-of-the-industry speech this week at the annual NATO/ShoWest convention (celebrating “100 Years of Movie Magic”), the Motion Picture Assn. of America president will remind delegates how 1994 was the third consecutive record-breaking box-office year with $5.42 billion in ticket sales.

But last year won’t be on the minds of the record crowd of 8,500 when the convention convenes today at Bally’s Hotel. Both distributors and theater owners are distressed about the dismal moviegoing business during the first quarter of 1995.

Heading into the convention, Hollywood Reporter’s box-office analyst Art Murphy estimates that business is off nearly $80 million, or 12%, from last year, and ticket sales have plummeted 13% to 141 million from 162 million.

Since the year began, there has not been one bona fide new hit, he is quick to point out. TriStar’s Christmas holdover “Legends of the Fall” is the strongest performer of a generally lackluster lot. The only newcomer to make any real noise is Paramount’s comedy, “The Brady Bunch,” which has grossed $25 million in two weeks of release.

“No 1995 release has caught on as well as ‘Ace Ventura: Pet Detective’ did last year (by this time a year ago it had grossed $39.3 million), and that’s why the business is in the hole,” Murphy says.

“Everybody is just talking about how lousy box office is,” complains Warner Bros. distribution chief Barry Reardon, noting that the slowdown has lasted six consecutive weekends and that seven of the last eight were plagued by worse performers than in the same period last year.

“It has to be the quality of the product,” he surmises.

“Business is terrible,” concurs Mitch Goldman, head of marketing and distribution for New Line Cinema. “And, it’s not the economy. It’s not television. It’s not video or video games. It’s all about no one picture has captured the public’s imagination.

“I believe it’s a result of too many pictures being made too quickly,” suggests Goldman.

The first promising bright spot may be Warners Friday release of Wolfgang Petersen’s deadly virus thriller “Outbreak,” starring Dustin Hoffman and Rene Russo.

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But with few exceptions, most distributors and theater owners agree that spring looks pretty light on potential hits. And the fact that the Easter vacation in mid-April comes two weeks later than it did last year, doesn’t help either.

“I think we’re in for another four to eight weeks of disappointing grosses,” says Chan Wood, head film buyer and executive vice president of Los Angeles-based Pacific Theaters. “But,” he adds, on an up note, “everybody’s getting excited about summer.”

Summer, which in the movie business usually begins during Memorial Day weekend, kicks off early this year with the May 5 release of 20th Century Fox’s “French Kiss,” directed by Lawrence Kasdan and starring Meg Ryan and Kevin Kline. It’s followed by Disney’s highly anticipated Tony Scott action film “Crimson Tide,” starring Denzel Washington and Gene Hackman (May 12), Fox’s Bruce Willis sequel “Die Hard: With a Vengeance” (May 19), Paramount’s “Braveheart,” with Mel Gibson (May 24), and Amblin/Universal’s “Casper” (May 26).

Murphy cautions that the early summer only benefits from weekend business until school lets out in June, when midweek moviegoing can kick in lots more dollars.

Both Murphy and Reardon note that it will take “a lot” to make up for this year’s $80-million shortfall.

Just to match 1994’s record box-office take of $2.2 billion, Murphy says, “It has to be a sensational summer.” (Summer--the biggest box-office season--accounts for 35%-40% of the year’s overall gross. Last year eight of the 10 films that grossed more than $100 million were released in summer.)

This summer promises to be at least as competitive as last, with a projected 48 releases from May 19 through Sept. 1 (compared with 40 in 1994) from the major studios alone, according to John Krier, president of Exhibitor Relations Co., which tracks box-office results.

“It’s going to be hectic, competitive and intense,” says Barry London, vice chairman of Paramount’s motion picture group. “It looks like there’s real strong product out there.”

At this week’s ShoWest, America’s theater owners as well as exhibitors from as many as 42 countries will get what in many cases will be a first glimpse of the movies to play their screens this summer and the rest of the year.

Most of Hollywood’s biggest movie companies, which often spend more than $1 million to promote their product and stars at the venue, show reels of product clips from the films that exhibitors will soon book in their theaters.

Aside from the expected summer hits such as the “Batman” and “Die Hard” sequels or likely big draws such as “Crimson Tide,” “Pocahontas,” “Casper,” “Apollo 13,” “Water World” and “Mighty Morphin Power Rangers,” there are always movies that seem to get discovered by exhibitors at ShoWest.

“It’s where you can find the surprise picture,” says Pacific’s Wood. “No one knew what ‘Forrest Gump’ was until we saw a clip last year and still nobody imagined there was a $300-million picture.” In addition to all of the movie previews, this year’s ShoWest will have no shortfall of star power--something especially attractive to the hundreds of small-town exhibitors who come here each year with cameras in hand.

“It’s going to be an incredible lineup of celebrities throughout the convention,” promises Tim Warner, NATO/ShoWest general chairman.

Among the expected cast list of actors and filmmakers is Tom Hanks (ShoWest male star of the year), Demi Moore (female star of the year), Martin Lawrence and Will Smith (male stars of tomorrow), Julia Ormond (female star of tomorrow), Jim Carrey (comedy star of the year), Robert Zemeckis (director of the year), Jim Cameron (producer of the year) and Faye Dunaway (lifetime achievement award).

MGM/UA Distribution will be host of Tuesday’s lunch, which, according to president Larry Gleason, will be a “low-key event” with no clips or stars but a hat’s off to exhibitors. Twentieth Century Fox, also sans reel and celebrities, will be host of the evening’s cocktail party, while New Line will be host of the dinner, showing clips and bringing in some stars and filmmakers from 12 of its movies, including “Seven,” starring Brad Pitt and Morgan Freeman, “Don Juan DeMarco,” with Johnny Depp and Marlon Brando, and “The Basketball Diaries,” starring Leonardo DiCaprio.

At Wednesday’s lunch, Warner Bros. will unspool footage and show off stars and filmmakers from such movies as “Batman Forever,” (Val Kilmer, Nicole Kidman, Jim Carrey), “The Bridges of Madison County” (Clint Eastwood), “Grumpier Old Men” (Jack Lemmon, Walter Matthau and possibly Ann-Margret) and “Bogus” (Whoopi Goldberg) among others.

Wednesday’s dinner will be hosted by Paramount Pictures, whose clips will include “Losing Isaiah,” teaming Halle Berry and Jessica Lange, “Braveheart,” directed by and starring Mel Gibson, Frank Marshall’s “Congo,” Sydney Pollack’s “Sabrina,” starring Harrison Ford, “Virtuosity,” starring Denzel Washington, William Friedkin’s “Jade,” with David Caruso, and “Vampire in Brooklyn,” headlined by Eddie Murphy and Angela Bassett.

Sony Pictures Entertainment, parent of Columbia and TriStar, will be host of Thursday’s luncheon. Distribution head Jeff Blake says the company’s 32-minute product reel will include clips from 13 films, including “Money Train,” starring Wesley Snipes and Woody Harrelson, “City Hall,” with Al Pacino, “The Net,” with Sandra Bullock, “Forget Paris,” starring Billy Crystal, “First Knight,” with Richard Gere, and “Bad Boys,” with Martin Lawrence and Will Smith.

After ShoWest folds its tent in Vegas, Disney will hold its own off-site special event Friday at its Burbank lot, where approximately 2,000 guests will hobnob with stars and see extensive footage from such upcoming movies as “Crimson Tide” and “Pocahontas.”