AMERICA’S CUP : Numbers Tell the Tale: Young America Is 0-2

I spent some time . . . with the mathematicians at Science Applications, analyzing statistical probabilities of various scenarios . . . (and concluded) this is a very good deal.

--John Marshall, syndicate head, PACT ’95

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When PACT ’95 crunched its data before agreeing to the controversial three-boat America’s Cup defender finals, one scenario surely did not come to mind.

0-2.

PACT’s Young America, the dominant American boat through four round-robin series and the semifinals, found itself winless in two starts in the finals after absorbing a 1:15 setback Tuesday against Dennis Conner’s Stars & Stripes.

Here are some numbers that PACT will not easily digest:

--Young America, 7-1 in the semifinals, had not suffered consecutive losses since Feb. 21-22.

--The loss was Young America’s first to Stars & Stripes since Feb. 22, snapping a string of six consecutive victories.

--The two bonus points PACT carried into the finals are quickly disappearing. Young America and America 3’s Mighty Mary are tied with two points apiece and Stars & Stripes is one behind. Mighty Mary can take the lead with a victory today over Stars & Stripes . . . and Stars & Stripes can pull into a three-way tie if it wins.

Obviously, this was not the way either the humans or the computers figured this final round was going to begin.

Among the challengers, in contrast, the status quo remained boringly intact. Team New Zealand, 31-1 through the semifinals with its one loss the result of a protest, trounced oneAustralia by 4 minutes 55 seconds in the opening race of the final series.

All that could be said on behalf of oneAustralia was that it didn’t sink. That best-of-nine series could be over as early as Sunday if oneAustralia does not find some way to match Team New Zealand.

Things are much more interesting, and competitive, among the defenders. They spent much of their time during the semifinals bickering in the protest room, ultimately forging the compromise that allowed all three to advance to the finals. There are inevitable protest flags flying this week over technical issues, but the focus has shifted to the racing itself.

Stars & Stripes hammered Young America on the first windward leg, until Young America needed two extra tacks to get to the mark. Conner’s boat remained firmly in control thereafter.

At this most critical stage of the competition, Young America, for the first time, is looking like a vulnerable boat. The mathematicians who calculated the final-round scenarios had better hire someone else to do their taxes.