Experts: Long Sentence for Citron Unlikely : Crisis: Ex-O.C. treasurer will serve little, if any, jail time because of his age and his cooperation, some say.

He’s 70 and looks increasingly frail. There’s no evidence that his illegal transfers of public funds were used for his personal enrichment. He doesn’t have a criminal record.

And he can continue to stay out of jail, as long as he continues to cooperate with the government in what is likely to be a lengthy and complex investigation into the Orange County bankruptcy.

Although Robert L. Citron faces a maximum of 14 years in state prison--and some county residents would like to see him serve every last minute of that sentence--the convicted ex-treasurer might be able to keep out of prison altogether, legal experts say.

“He may well be able to avoid jail, especially given his age,” said criminal defense attorney Jack M. Earley. “I would assume there is more concern about Orange County getting its money back . . . than (about) what happens to Robert Citron.”

David Biggs, a Western State University College of Law professor who spent 10 years as a state prosecutor and another decade as a federal public defender, guessed that Citron will serve a short sentence in the county jail and a longer term of probation, never setting foot inside a state prison.

But if Citron’s cooperation drags out over several years, with testimony in state and federal trials, Biggs said “it may very well be that he won’t serve any jail time whatsoever.”

In Orange County, the chances of someone 70 or older going to prison are remote.

According to records compiled by the state Department of Justice, only one of 44 people of that age group arrested for a felony was sentenced to prison between 1988 and 1992, the most recent year for which records are available.

“Judges tend to be old,” UCLA Law Prof. John Shepard Wiley Jr. said bluntly. “More typically than perhaps the rest of the population, judges tend to appreciate just how few years you have left at the age of 70. . . . One must acknowledge that when someone only has a few years left, a sentence of only a few years is a life sentence for that person.”

Biggs said there are practical considerations as well: “A person of that advanced age has a tremendous amount of medical expenses possible. We as a society don’t want to be placed in a position of having to shoulder those burdens if we don’t have to.”

Likewise, it is rare that someone arrested on suspicion of misappropriating public funds--charges to which Citron ultimately pleaded guilty--will serve prison time.

Of the 10 arrested in Orange County on such charges between 1988 and 1992, none went to prison. A notable exception occurred in 1993, when Stephen A. Wagner was sentenced to six years in prison for stealing $3.5 million from the Newport-Mesa Unified School District while he was its chief financial officer.

Even in that case, federal authorities filed mail and wire fraud charges against him because the public was outraged that, after subtracting credit for work, good behavior and time served, he was only facing about 2 1/2 years in prison on the state charges. The federal charges effectively added about 13 months to Wagner’s prison term, after a plea bargain was reached with federal prosecutors.

In the Citron case, much will depend on whether federal authorities choose to prosecute him.

If he is indicted, federal sentencing guidelines limit a judge’s discretion and carry a mandatory range of penalties that are impossible to avoid. Although Citron has received no assurance that he will not be brought up on federal charges, many believe there is no reason to charge him in U. S. District Court and add to his sentence.

“If he’s not indicted by a federal (grand jury), the chances are less than 50-50 that he’ll go to jail as long as he continues to cooperate and tell the truth,” said H. Dean Steward, a federal public defender. “He’s at the top of the pyramid looking down and he could provide a wealth of information.”

Former federal prosecutors point to what is referred to as the “petite policy” of the U. S. Department of Justice, which holds that suspects should not face charges from a U. S. attorney’s office for the same crimes they have already pleaded guilty to in state court. But it is only a policy and prosecutors are allowed to make exceptions.

Citron pleaded guilty last week to six felony counts, two of which involve making untrue statements in connection with the sale of securities. He admitted to four other counts of misappropriating public funds, failing to transfer public funds properly and maintaining false entries in a public record.

The Orange County district attorney’s office insists that the case was not a plea bargain, and that Citron received nothing in exchange for his guilty plea and his pledge to cooperate with the government.

“There is no agreement concerning Citron’s ultimate sentence or punishment,” Dist. Atty. Michael R. Capizzi said in a news release.

He reiterated his position this week.

“At this point, Mr. Citron is facing a sentence of 14 years in prison and a $10-million maximum fine,” Capizzi said. “I’m not going to engage in idle speculation,” he remarked, when asked what he thought Citron’s eventual sentence might be.

Citron’s attorney, David W. Wiechert, also refused to speculate about his client’s actual sentence, saying only that it would be up to the judge. But he stressed the importance of the information Citron will provide law enforcement, which began with a five-hour debriefing at the district attorney’s office Monday.

“Cooperation is an important factor in the sentencing calculation,” Wiechert said. “It demonstrates an individual’s contrition and remorse, and is a key step toward righting the wrongs that that individual committed.”

A harbinger of Citron’s fate might be found in Wiechert’s own case files.

One of Wiechert’s most notorious clients, Lincoln Savings & Loan president Raymond C. Fidel Jr., walked away with probation in 1993 after being the first person to plead guilty and testify against Charles H. Keating Jr., the head of a Phoenix development firm that owned Irvine-based Lincoln Savings.

Wiechert arranged a similar deal for Brian Fink, vice president of Parker Automotive. Fink testified against the company president, Michael E. Parker, in one of the largest S & L swindles in Southern California; Parker was put away for 11 years, Fink for six months.

Like Citron, Fidel and Fink were the “first in the door,” both pleading guilty early. Each faced a maximum sentence of 10 years.

“That, to me, is the best lesson for what the odds are in this case,” said Wiley, a former federal prosecutor specializing in fraud.

There are, of course, major differences betweeL cases and the one involving Citron, perhaps the most important being that Citron could turn out to be the highest-ranking potential offender in the Orange County crisis.

“What Fidel had that Citron apparently doesn’t have is this: Fidel had Charlie Keating to point a finger at. If there is a figure like that, some nefarious black hat that we don’t know about, it would help,” said a key figure in the Keating case who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

“But what the Keating case does suggest is that you can be involved in some fairly large-scale fraud, and if you’re willing to make amends and cooperate, you can keep yourself out of jail,” he added.

Thus, the crucial question may be: Who can Citron point to? Will the heat drift up, toward the supervisors, or only down to Citron’s underlings? And can he help the government pin charges on Wall Street brokers or financial advisers who perhaps gained the most from the county’s loss?

“The criminal justice system wants to punish the worst person the most,” Wiley said.

“If what Mr. Citron does is cooperate against people who are less criminal than himself, a judge will be less eager to regard (very favorably) turning in a bunch of small fry and letting the big fish go,” he explained. “But if he builds a case against people who were more malevolent, more destructive than himself, then he’s helped prosecutors capture the big target, and that will help him more.”

County Supervisor William G. Steiner said that “a lot of people want a pound of flesh,” but he added:

“If he is cooperative and helpful, then what’s the purpose of locking up a 70-year-old man? Whether he goes to jail for 14 years or five years or not at all, his admission of guilt puts to rest who is accountable and doesn’t change the fact that the money is gone.”

* IMPORTING TRASH: Officials test interest in dumping in O.C. A17

* ANALYST DIES: A member of the recovery team is dead at 24. A35