COMMENTARY : Talkin Man Is the Horse to Beat Saturday

No horse won a prep race for the Kentucky Derby more easily than Talkin Man did in the Wood Memorial Stakes. Television commentators raved about his performance. Yet experienced handicappers were properly skeptical. Talkin Man had taken an uncontested early lead against a field of nonentities; under the circumstances he hardly failed to look good.

I came to Churchill Downs with the intention of betting against him and his inflated reputation. I was getting excited about the prospects of the stretch-running Tejano Run. But now I can’t escape the conclusion that Talkin Man is the horse to beat Saturday, even if he’s not a great betting proposition. He has done almost nothing wrong in his career. And he has the right running style for Saturday’s race.

Talkin Man was Canada’s 2-year-old champion last season, dominating his weak competition with ease. After a virus set back his training schedule, he returned to action in New York this spring and won both of his starts.

His victory in the one-mile Gotham Stakes was dazzling; he was parked four-wide, chasing a fast pace, and ran away from his rivals by eight lengths. Maybe all of his triumphs have been somewhat illusory because Talkin Man has never defeated a top horse. But at least he’s been winning. The colts who are supposed to be his most formidable rivals, Timber Country and Afternoon Deelites, discredited themselves with their losing efforts in the Santa Anita Derby.

The case for Talkin Man is strengthened by the fact that the Derby is likely to unfold in a fashion that favors him. He may get the breaks at Churchill Downs as surely as he got them in New York.

The most common Derby scenario is one in which the winner comes from far behind, swooping past the field on the final turn. The Derby lineup usually includes many speed horses who must gun from the gate to get a good early position; some may be pure sprinters who don’t belong in the race. When these horses set an extraordinarily fast pace, the leaders collapse and the slow starters swoop from behind. In four of the last five years, the winner has come from 12th place or farther back.

But in the rare years when a fast pace doesn’t develop, the horses in the first flight have a distinct edge; it’s tough for the stretch runners to wend their way through a 19-horse field and overcome leaders who haven’t been weakened by a fight for the lead.

This year there are apparently just four speed horses in the field, and they are unlikely to engage each other in a hard early battle. Serena’s Song will almost certainly take the early lead; she possesses natural speed, and trainer Wayne Lukas will let her use it. (He scored his only Derby victory when Winning Colors led all the way and set a slow pace in 1988.)

But the trainers of the other horses with speed -- Wild Syn, Afternoon Deelites and Talkin Man -- have indicated they will be content to have their horses lay off the leaders. If the first half mile of the Derby is run at a moderate pace -- with a half mile in 47 seconds or so -- the winner is apt to come from the first flight.

Serena’s Song will be a formidable contender if the others give her some breathing room early. She has won five in a row, and she looked impressive trouncing colts in her last start, the Jim Beam Stakes. But she is the daughter of a miler, and she has often been hard-pressed to hold on at shorter distances. Her ability to go 1 1/4 miles is suspect.

Talkin Man, however, has a solid distance-running pedigree to go with his tractable running style. If jockey Mike Smith positions him just off the early leaders, Talkin Man should be able to outkick them in the stretch.

A relatively slow pace will compromise the chances of the two best finishers in the field, Jumron and Tejano Run. Jumron caught the eye of many racing fans with his fast finish in the Santa Anita Derby, though he may have looked good because the horses in front of him were slowing down.

But the stretch-runner who excited me was Tejano Run. Unlike so many Derby candidates who looked good because the circumstances of a race favored them, Tejano Run had performed well in the face of adversity. He had twice found himself in races dominated by front-runners -- Serena’s Song’s Jim Beam Stakes and Wild Syn’s Blue Grass Stakes -- and both times he rallied strongly without being able to overhaul the leader. In a typical fast-pace race, he was going to be the horse swooping past the field, and I bet him in the Derby future book with some enthusiasm.

Not only may the pace hinder Tejano Run, but trainer Ken McPeek has done the rest. Most trainers know how important it is to bring a horse to Churchill Downs long before the race and acclimate him to the track. McPeek chose to ignore this well-established wisdom, stable his colt at Keeneland and ship to Churchill on the morning of the race. Derby historian Jim Bolus said no horse in history has ever done that. McPeek, who has saddled 30 straight losers at Keeneland and Churchill, doesn’t inspire much confidence that he can pull off such an unconventional move. With so many negatives already attached to him, Tejano Run couldn’t possibly survive the annual Beyer kiss of death in the Derby.

But the Canadian champ may be good enough to do so. The predicted order of finish: 1. Talkin Man. 2. Serena’s Song. 3. Tejano Run.