CALIFORNIA ELECTIONS / 35TH SENATE DISTRICT : Johnson Win May Be Costly for GOP : New state senator can no longer help Republicans oust Assembly leader Willie Brown. Party officials pin hopes on June special votes.

Assemblyman Ross Johnson may have easily won a prized seat in the California Senate this week, but the victory may come at a cost for the Republican cause.

The former nine-term assemblyman from Placentia will now have little to say about unseating 14-year Assembly Speaker Willie Brown (D-San Francisco), the man California Republicans love to hate.

As the senator from the 35th District, representing coastal Orange County from Seal Beach through Laguna Beach and inland to La Palma and Tustin, Johnson leaves Assembly Republicans lacking one important vote in the effort to get rid of Brown.

The irony was not lost on supporters of former Assemblyman Gil Ferguson, who was defeated by Johnson in a bitter state Senate primary in March.

“The thrust of Johnson’s campaign was that Gil had supposedly conspired with (Assemblyman Paul) Horcher to aid Brown,” Steve Brody, a former top aide to Ferguson, said Wednesday, the day after Johnson won election. “That was the hallmark of his campaign, which of course was false.”

However, it’s not a sure thing that Johnson’s vote would have made the difference in ousting Brown.

If Republicans win two upcoming special elections, they may still be able to muster enough votes to remove Brown by June 7 or shortly after, even without Johnson’s help.

*

Johnson’s move to the state Senate gives Brown a few weeks more as the Speaker, but that’s all, said Assemblyman Mickey Conroy (R-Orange) on Wednesday.

“The ‘Oust Willie Brown Scenario’ will play itself out in June,” Conroy said. “That’s when we will have the numbers we need.”

Here’s how the Republicans’ scenario might work, according to Conroy and other party officials:

There are 80 Assembly members, and it takes a simple majority to elect a Speaker. Currently, there are 40 votes for Brown and 38 Republicans against Brown, with two open seats, those of Johnson and Richard Mountjoy (R-Arcadia), who also left the Assembly when he was elected last November to the state Senate.

On May 16, a recall vote will be held to try to oust maverick Assemblyman Paul Horcher (I-Diamond Bar), a former Republican who cast the deciding vote for Brown last December.

If, as expected, Horcher is recalled and a Republican is elected in his place, that simultaneously eliminates Horcher’s vote for Brown and gives the GOP one vote. That would make the totals 39 for Brown, 39 Republicans against Brown and two unfilled seats.

Another special election will be held June 6 to replace Mountjoy. If a Republican is elected, as expected, the GOP would have 40 votes to 39 for the Democrats, and Brown would be out.

Conroy said that anyone in the Assembly could, of course, mess up these plans, including Assemblywoman Doris Allen (R-Cypress), who announced Tuesday that she wants to be the Speaker. But Allen also said that she would first vote with the other Republicans to oust Brown.

“Yes, Doris could foul things up. With a one-vote margin, any one of us could foul things up,” Conroy said.

Johnson said that because he is confident Brown will be voted out of his chairmanship, he will move to the state Senate “as soon as possible,” perhaps this afternoon.

He said he wants to remain in the Assembly this morning because a series of bills related to Orange County’s bankruptcy recovery will be up for a vote.

“I want to certainly be there to help take care of those matters,” Johnson said.