COOL SUMMER: No wonder promoters are already...

COOL SUMMER: No wonder promoters are already looking ahead to next year.

Sure, there are some big names, including Nine Inch Nails, Live and the Cranberries, on the road. But nothing remotely like last year’s record-breaking rosters--led by the Stones, Pink Floyd, the Eagles and Barbra Streisand--that brought in an unprecedented $1.4 billion in ticket sales in North America.

The only bona fide stadium headliner expected on the road is the ever-present Grateful Dead in that crucial period between Memorial Day and Labor Day, during which the industry usually does about two-thirds of its annual business. Without the powerhouse acts on the road this summer, total concert grosses are expected to drop by about 25%.

“Nobody expects to do the business they did last year,” says Gary Bongiovanni, editor of the concert trade magazine Pollstar. “On a graph, it’s going to look like a huge drop-off from last year to this year. But it’s really just getting back to normal.

“It’s not the same kind of disastrous 25% drop we saw in 1991, when the national recession had such an effect. The number of acts touring this summer is high, but the difference is that we’re lacking the sizzle we felt last year.”

That lack of sizzle may work to the concert-goers’ advantage, since as concert business drops off, so will ticket prices, which reached new heights last year thanks to the likes of Streisand and the Eagles.

“We need to be very cautious about ticket price,” says Lindy Goetz, who manages Candlebox and the Red Hot Chili Peppers, both of which are expected to tour this year. “And we need to give the audience a great package. Basically, every concert needs to be treated as an event.”

Plenty of events will be out there, with the trend toward multi-act package tours continuing this summer. Lollapalooza, the H.O.R.D.E. Festival, Reggae Sunsplash, B.B. King’s annual blues tour and a Motown bill featuring the Temptations and the Four Tops are all expected to do solid business.

“I’m not as busy as I have been in previous summers, but it’s not a panic summer,” says Agent Trip Brown of ICM, who currently has Megadeth, the Allman Brothers and the Beach Boys on the road. “It’s always hard to pinpoint cause and effect in this business, but I think this is just one of those summers when the big acts don’t have albums to support, so they’re not out there.”

So will the Dead rule the box offices as the lone stadium act?

“They’re their own animal,” says Bongiovanni. “Two years ago they were the No. 1 touring act in the country, and they might come close this year too. But in 1994, they had the highest-grossing tour of their career, and they were only No. 5. That gives you some perspective on what was happening last year.”