Chance at a Clean Start : Zero-Emission Car Mandate Needs to Be More Flexible

Truth is, a great new industry in advanced, pollution-free transportation is emerging in Southern California. “By 2010, I would expect you to be able routinely to purchase a vehicle, probably a hybrid [engine powered by electricity and gasoline] that will have energy efficiency equal to 100 miles per gallon,” says Paul MacCready, chairman of AeroVironment Inc., a pioneering Monrovia company.

But as the old saying goes, “In war, the first casualty is truth.” Southern Californians should keep that in mind as they listen to the shouting match now erupting over the California Air Resources Board’s mandate on zero-emission vehicles. The CARB--which holds important hearings in El Monte on June 28--has ruled that 2% of the cars sold in 1998 be pollution-free, with the percentage rising from that point.

The requirement for zero-emission means, in effect, electric cars--which sounds benign enough even if it limits experiments with other fuels.

But suddenly the debate has turned malignant, with lies and distortions flying about the dangers from lead-acid batteries in the envisioned electric cars. The oil and automobile industries are financing public relations campaigns advocating a review of the mandate. And Gov. Pete Wilson is arousing fears of retreat by recommending another study of electric car technology.

The fact is, however, a review of the mandate would be useful; it needs to be more flexible.

What Southern Californians should focus on is that the goal is clean, efficient transportation--not one technology or another.

Engineers working on battery and fuel cell research at UC Davis say progress is being made but that the best products won’t be ready by 1998. “The risk is that the mandate will force a bunch of lemons onto the market,” says Daniel Sperling, director of UC Davis’ Institute of Transportation Studies.

Zero-emission also reflects wishful thinking more than engineering knowledge, says MacCready, who has led development of solar-powered automobiles and aircraft. “Regulators who use zero in any requirement should be disqualified,” he says.

Those experts and others say the mandate could be altered to allow near-zero-emission vehicles--to bring in natural gas and to experiment with hybrid engines--and it could be delayed to allow another year for development of nickel-hydride, zinc- bromine and advanced lead-acid batteries.

Most of all, the dawn of a new era in transportation should not be allowed to degenerate into a trial by combat between electricity and gasoline--because if it did, laws of physics and of the marketplace could render a verdict unfriendly to this region.

One hurdle in supplanting gasoline is that it is a uniquely efficient fuel, delivering 4,100 watt-hours of energy per kilogram, compared to 40 watt-hours per kilogram for today’s most efficient lead-acid battery (from Electrosource in Austin, Tex.) or 200 watt-hours for an envisioned super battery now under development.

Another point to keep in mind, notes Sperling of UC Davis, is that air pollution is acute in areas covering only 20% of the U.S. population--Los Angeles, Sacramento and the Central Valley in California plus Denver and New York. Other places need cleaner-fueled cars and new models of transportation, also, but their requirements are less stringent.

The distinction is important, because it will lead to different local regulations taking the place of single federal standards. (That’s why governors of other states have asked Wilson to loosen the zero-emission mandate.) And that doesn’t even cover potential overseas markets, from Bangkok to Sao Paulo to Beijing to Bombay to Moscow.

Therefore, markets and designs of cleaner cars will also differ. Hybrids may be the ultimate choice, with electric motors for city driving and gasoline or natural gas engines taking over for longer hauls.

So California’s advanced transportation industry will have to be flexible to retain the head start the CARB mandate, first issued in 1990, has given it.

The infant industry is a toddler now. The Calstart consortium, organized three years ago, has grown to 140 companies, working on $62 million of projects that have created 1,650 jobs to date. Calstart projects investments and job creation to grow rapidly in the next few years.

Calstart has helped small companies such as Amerigon of Monrovia develop special parts for electric vehicles. It has helped large companies such as AlliedSignal work on fuel cells. And it is attracting overseas interest: In April, BMW formed a joint venture to explore environmental technologies.

The region’s smoggy air has spawned an outpouring of salable solutions. AC Propulsion of San Dimas developed an electric drive system for cars and has sold 10 of them--at $30,000 apiece--to the South African electric utility Eskom.

The concentration needn’t be on cars alone. AeroVironment is working on electric bicycles and motor scooters as well as automobiles, such as the electric Impact for General Motors, which has a 12% stake in the small company.

“This is a very exciting time,” says MacCready, 69, who holds a doctorate in aeronautics from Caltech. Getting electricity into cars will bring changes around the world, he says. The industry he pioneered when he founded AeroVironment in 1971 is clearly emerging.

But MacCready’s vision is not simple. People should understand that “the electric car is not going to have an appreciable effect on smog,” he says. “To think that it will is to lean on a rubber crutch.”

Rather, “the electric car’s value lies in getting people to think much more rigorously about energy and mobility systems,” he says. If you have roads clogged with clean cars, you’re not much better off than with dirty cars.

His point is that Southern California must now lead the world in a transition not merely to a new fuel but to a new way of urban life. That’s the challenge and the great opportunity.

* POLITICAL MANEUVER?

Gov. Wilson recommends new study on electric cars. A3

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Driving the Future

Calstart Inc. is a public-private consortium founded in 1992 to help California companies foster an advanced-transportation industry by applying for grants, marketing their products and sharing information. It is a leading player in the state’s support for cleaner-burning vehicles. A look at the nonprofit group: * Headquarters: Burbank * Chief executive: Michael J. Gage * Mission: To create jobs and clean the air through the development of advanced-transportation technologies * Members: More than 150 participants, representing half the companies involved in the advanced-transportation industry nationwide. Members range from aerospace companies and academic institutions to transit districts, vehicle manufacturers and local, state and federal agencies. * Technologies represented: Member companies deployed an aluminum chassis for electric vehicles, opened one of the largest production sites for natural gas vehicles, developed the first electric-natural gas hybrid bus and introduced the nation’s first electric school bus. * 1995 jobs created by member firms: 1,655

Source: Calstart 1994 Action Report

Researched by JENNIFER OLDHAM / Los Angeles Times