Heading Toward a No-Return Point? : Two tough negotiators go to the brink

A nation generally wants to be represented in a difficult negotiation by a strong-willed official who is at least as tough as anyone else in the room. And that’s what the Japanese have in Trade Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto, who is representing his country in trade negotiations with Washington. And it’s what America has in Trade Representative Mickey Kantor, who takes a back seat to nobody in the tough-as-nails department. Unfortunately the mixture of these two maximum negotiators, in the context of Japanese and American politics, may prove to be a formula not for an agreement, which after all is the purpose of negotiation, but for a big-time impasse, if not fiasco.

Let’s give Clinton Administration officials their due. They’re right on the issue: However Tokyo fiddles with the figures, Japan makes it hard for America to sell its goods there as readily as Japanese companies can, and do, sell their wares here. And Washington is right that the issue is one of growing urgency: America’s overall trade deficit in April soared to a record high of $11.37 billion, with Japan the major contributor to that. And Administration officials are right to feel frustrated, as the Japanese practice a corrosive protectionism in too many categories. Even now the two countries are also locking horns over air freight access to their respective markets.

But try to look at the issue from a Japanese perspective. They are tired of being bashed by grandstanding American politicians, and don’t react well to ultimatums. Moreover, they’re tired of American excuses; for instance, why has Detroit taken so long to ship cars with right-hand drive?

But even giving both sides their due, where does that leave you? It gets you to a massive and potentially blistering trade war between two economic giants that runs entirely counter to the spirit of free trade--of GATT and of the newly formed World Trade Organization, which in theory is supposed to handle all such disputes. Alas, the WTO in Geneva scarcely has the paint dry on the walls; it might take years to adjudicate this festering auto issue. Meanwhile Washington is so angry that it won’t wait and Tokyo is so angry it won’t budge.

It is precisely at such a turn in history that the need for a saving dose of statesmanship is crucial. Why can’t these two giants, who need each other, who depend on each other, whose fates are so intertwined, pull back from the brink, cut a deal and avoid risking a collapse of one of the greatest postwar alliances in history? Walter Mondale, the U.S. ambassador to Japan, has suggested that Washington is prepared to show some flexibility on the need for Japan to boost purchases of U.S.-made auto parts. And in Japan, some reports suggests that auto makers there are inclined to make some compromises of their own, with or without Tokyo’s encouragement. May the sensible chorus grow in volume and save the day.