Infirm Dominican Leader Keeps a Firm Grip on Power

Joaquin Balaguer shuffles slowly through seaside Mirador Park, leaning on aides from time to time as he laboriously navigates the freshly swept sidewalk.

Eighty-eight years old, blind from glaucoma and hobbled by phlebitis, the frail president of this Caribbean nation struggles for 35 minutes to cover about 500 yards.

The painful daily walk of the once-powerful Balaguer, who has been president for 19 of the past 27 years, is symbolic of the unsteady state of government in the Dominican Republic, where his tenure appears to be coming to an end with no clear successor.

Balaguer announced in late February that he would fulfill his promise to allow new elections in May, 1996, only two years into his four-year term. The man who has influenced political life from the highest levels for most of his life would leave office on Aug. 16, 1996.

That leaves anxious Dominicans wondering what the future holds for this nation of nearly 8 million people.

“If this were a country with strong institutions, there wouldn’t be any anxiety, because it would be clear to everyone what they have to do and how to do it,” said Eduardo Latorre, a political analyst. “But not being like that, it produces this sensation of uncertainty about what is going to happen.”

Vice President Jacinto Peynado, one of a number of candidates seeking to succeed Balaguer, takes a slightly more positive spin. “There is no power vacuum . . . but an uncertain situation,” he said.

Peynado said the disputed presidential election last May was traumatic for the country, “but it turned out well.”

That is a matter of opinion. Balaguer was declared winner, but many Dominicans believe the true victor was the opposition leader, Jose Francisco Pena Gomez.

Pena Gomez, who lost by just 21,000 votes out of 2.5 million, charged that 200,000 of his supporters were stopped from casting ballots because of altered official voter lists. International observers and the U.S. government reported widespread fraud and pushed for new elections.

Under pressure, Balaguer agreed last August to hold a presidential election after 15 months. But the Balaguer-dominated Congressional Assembly later extended that to two years. Pena Gomez reluctantly agreed.

Despite the pact, some opposition supporters fear that the constitution will be altered to keep Balaguer in office until 1998.

Uncertainty over the situation has been heightened by hints from sectors of the governing Social Christian Reformist Party that an election will not be held next year as promised. Signs posted in various cities declare, “I voted for four years.”

Roman Catholic Cardinal Nicolas de Jesus has warned that another electoral crisis could degenerate into civil war.

But the U.S. Embassy spokesman, Christopher Scharf, said he does not think there was any “major organized effort” to stymie elections.

Even Pena Gomez says he believes Balaguer will abide by the agreement, because the Dominican people, the international community and the U.S. Congress will insist.

The viability of Pena Gomez’s candidacy has been in doubt since he underwent surgery for pancreatic cancer last fall. Opposing parties have portrayed him as a dying man. The 58-year-old Social Democrat denies it, saying a recent checkup found him free of cancer.