Twilight of Incumbents Brightens Many Hopes : Politics: Term limits, age and other factors guarantee legislative change as candidates gear up for state and national posts.

From Granada Hills to Sylmar, Van Nuys to Glendale, candidates and activists in the San Fernando Valley are preparing for the most thorough changing of the political guard in recent memory.

Term limits, advancing age and flowering ambition are conspiring to leave at least six elective seats without an incumbent in next year’s state and federal legislative elections.

The impending incumbent vanishing act has created an explosion of opportunities for dozens of political newcomers and old-timers alike who are competing for offices that have long appeared unattainable.

Primaries will be held March 26 and the general election will be held in November.

In the 39th Assembly District race, for example, four viable Democratic candidates have already emerged to fight for the seat being vacated by term-limits victim Richard Katz, a Sylmar Democrat.

Katz’s departure also may portend a change in the ethnic makeup of the Valley’s legislative delegation. With their numbers growing in Katz’s district and several active voter registration drives targeting them, Latinos are hopeful that one of their own will make history by becoming the Valley’s first Latino state legislator.

“Certainly the election of a Latino candidate to the 39th Assembly District is within the realm of possibility now,” said Los Angeles City Councilman Richard Alarcon, whose own council district falls within most of the Assembly district.

Already one Latino, Mission Hills realtor Tony Cardenas, has sewn up the support of the Latino Legislative Caucus, an organization of state lawmakers in Sacramento that can help candidates line up financial support.

Other incumbents who are giving up their seats in 1996: state Assemblywoman Paula L. Boland (R-Granada Hills); Assemblywoman Barbara Friedman (D-North Hollywood); Assemblyman James E. Rogan (R-Glendale); state Sen. Newton R. Russell (R-Glendale), and U.S. Rep. Carlos J. Moorhead (R-Glendale).

The magnitude of the shake-up is evident in some simple data: Moorhead has been the Glendale-area congressman since 1972, when Richard Nixon was President; Russell has been in the state Senate since 1974; and Katz in the state Assembly since 1980.

“We’re going to be losing a lot of experience, and that’s one of the downsides of term limits,” said Wayne Adelstein, a politically active businessman and chairman of the state government issues panel for the Valley Industry and Commerce Assn.

Despite the obvious opportunities for new political faces to emerge, most observers do not foresee many changes in political affiliation. “The bodies and faces will be new, but I don’t see any of the districts changing from Republican control to Democratic control or Democratic to Republican,” said Paul Clarke, a longtime corporate political consultant.

There may be exceptions, however. GOP candidate Richard Sybert, a former top aide to Gov. Pete Wilson, has already launched another bid to oust U.S. Rep. Anthony C. Beilenson (D-Woodland Hills). Beilenson’s 24th Congressional District--at least on paper--has some of the earmarks of a GOP seat, although the incumbent has beaten back tough Republican challenges in 1992 and 1994. In 1994, Beilenson beat Sybert by only 3,200 votes out of more than 175,000 ballots cast.

Some of the coming changes may have the look of musical chairs. For example, Rogan, first elected in 1994 to the Assembly, is planning to run for Moorhead’s congressional post. And while term limits is forcing her to step down from her north San Fernando Valley Assembly seat, Boland is plotting to run for Russell’s Glendale-based 21st Senate District seat. Boland’s move apparently will pit her against a GOP colleague, state Assemblyman Bill Hoge (R-Pasadena). Hoge, while not required by term limits to leave his Assembly seat until 1998, sees taking the Russell seat in 1996 as a natural career progression, according to aides.

Amid the signs of change, it is also evident that some incumbents hope to leave their imprimaturs on their districts by trying to pick their successors.

Moorhead, for example, has tapped Rogan as his heir apparent, perhaps giving the fast-moving junior lawmaker a leg up in the GOP primary. Likewise, Boland has given her endorsement to Scott Wilk, her chief legislative aide.

On the other hand, Katz has so far stayed out of the competitive scramble for his seat and is encouraging all comers. “I happen to think this is the greatest job in the world,” Katz said recently. “Despite all the craziness in Sacramento, you can still get a lot done and help a lot of people.”

The carnival-like atmosphere has veteran political operatives shaking their heads in wonderment. “It’s hard to keep track of all the players and what they are running for--it seems to change from day to day,” said Sheila McNichols, a GOP political consultant from the Glendale-Burbank area.

“The big question is really not who is running for some of these seats,” quips Clarke. “Is there going to be anybody left to vote when you take out all the candidates?”

In fact, the field of candidates is still changing and will continue to change until the formal candidate filing period opens in late November. “People who are candidates now may not be in a few weeks,” Clarke said. “And others may jump in later. It’s still a very fluid situation.”

Here are some of the races that are shaping up in the Valley:

* 39th Assembly District: In addition to Cardenas, three Democratic candidates in this heavily Democratic seat are being widely discussed as possible successors to Katz. They are businessman Jim Keysor, who was the assemblyman from the same district between 1971 and 1978, when he lost the seat to a Republican; Jim Dantona, a former aide to both Lt. Gov. Gray Davis and former state senator David Roberti; and Valerie Saulkin, a former aide to state Board of Equalization member Brad Sherman.

So intense is the competition in the Democratic primary that candidates are already walking precincts. Katz’s advice to his would-be successors is that they focus on public education reform, including the breakup of the Los Angeles Unified School District; develop initiatives to redevelop the old General Motors plant site in Van Nuys; and take a tough approach to crime.

* 38th Assembly District: This district, which includes the northwest San Fernando Valley and Simi Valley, should stay in the Republican camp even after Boland’s departure, observers agree. The candidate lineup now includes Wilk, Boland’s chief deputy; Steve Frank, a longtime Republican conservative activist; and businessman Ross Hopkins, who formerly chaired the Valley Industry and Commerce Assn. and was for years a Lockheed public relations executive.

“The question in the 38th is not whether it will stay Republican but whether conservative candidates Wilk and Frank split the conservative vote so badly that a moderate like Hopkins can win,” Adelstein said.

* 40th Assembly District: So far, two Democrats have emerged to run for the seat being vacated by Friedman: Robert Hertzberg, an attorney with close ties to Los Angeles County Supervisor Gloria Molina, and Francine Oschin, an aide to GOP City Councilman Hal Bernson. The district is expected to stay Democratic.

* 41st and 42nd Assembly Districts: Assemblyman Wally Knox (D-Los Angeles) and Assemblywoman Sheila J. Kuehl (D-Santa Monica) are expected to have no trouble keeping their seats. Both were first elected in 1994.

* 43rd Assembly District: This district has a voter-registration tilt favorable to Republicans. In 1994, Rogan, a conservative Republican, handily won election twice--once in a special election and once in a regular election. LAPD Officer Peter Repovich, who got his political feet wet in 1994 running against Rogan and later endorsed him, has entered the GOP primary race.

Other names that are being mentioned for the GOP nomination include Peter Musurlian, a longtime Moorhead aide; Bill Wiggins, a former mayor of Burbank; Sheldon Baker, a Glendale city councilman, and Jim Regan, a Republican Party activist.

* 21st Senate District: The battle over the GOP nomination to this seat could be furious if both Boland and Hoge--two incumbent Assembly members--enter the fray.

State Senate GOP leader Rob Hurtt (R-Garden Grove) said Friday that unless he is surprised by a poll he is commissioning next week to test a Boland-Hoge matchup, he expects to back Hoge and fight to get the Senate GOP caucus, which he rules, to throw its weight and money behind Hoge.

“I think Bill’s the stronger of the candidates,” Hurtt said. “But we’ll find out. Paula keeps saying he’s got problems, but I think they are not big ones, except with activists.”

Hurtt is arguing for GOP unity behind one candidate in the primary because he expects to see a strong Democratic challenge in November. Attorney Adam Schiff, the Democrat who ran against Rogan in last year’s 43rd District Assembly race, has already announced his plans to run for the Senate seat.

* 19th and 23rd Senate Districts: Sen. Cathie Wright (R-Simi Valley) and Sen. Tom Hayden (D-Santa Monica) are unlikely to face heavy opposition winning renomination and reelection.

* 24th Congressional District: It’s the Beilenson-Sybert rematch in November, 1996. Neither man is expected to have any difficulty winning their party’s nomination in March.

* 27th Congressional District: Rogan is the standout candidate in the GOP primary. On the Democratic side, Doug Kahn, who secured the Democratic nomination in 1992 and 1994 but was defeated both times by Moorhead, is expected to face Barry Gordon, former president of the Screen Actors Guild.