America Sleeps While Russia Teeters : Geopolitics: We cannot ignore the similarities to conditions in the Weimar republic before Hitler’s rise.

One of the greatest threats to global security today is one that is not even typically considered by policy-makers and analysts: the future of Russia. During the Cold War era we had a total fixation on the Soviet Union and its potential military threat, especially its nuclear weapons. Now we tend to regard this problem as “solved”.

The problem of the future of Russia is, however, by no means “solved,” and we are our well-being at risk by ignoring it. Russia is teetering at the brink and, depending on how it falls, it could totally undermine global security. Indeed, the present situation is remarkably like the interwar situation after the “war to end all wars,” which led up to the greatest war in human history.

Russia is in an impossible situation, with catastrophic economic and political problems that pose long-term dangers. The economy is in a nose-dive, with continuing huge drops in output and high levels of inflation. Russia is now in a depression comparable to that in the United States in the 1930s and, at the same time, suffers an inflation comparable to that in Germany in the 1920s. As a result, 1995 output is less than half its 1990 level, while the 1994 ruble is worth less than 1/1,000th of its 1990 value. This inflation has prevented the rise of a middle class, which is the backbone of any political and social system.

The economy is also riddled with crime. As a result of the failure to introduce market institutions, such as property rights, commercial and investment banks, law enforcement and regulation, a commercial code, advertising, accounting and insurance, the transition has been not to a market economy but rather to a criminalized economy, where the criminals establish their own institutions. Thus, many mafias control various sectors of the economy and engage in extortion; the new manager-owners of the privatized firms act as unfettered monopolists, engaging in price-gouging and asset stripping, selling off their firm’s assets and depositing the proceeds in personal offshore bank accounts, while corrupt officials demand payoffs.

Politically, there is immense hostility between the president and the Parliament, causing governmental paralysis. A major regional conflict still seethes in Chechnya. All of the systems that are part of a modern state are also in collapse, including health, agriculture, environment, education, law, and science and technology.

No one can precisely predict Russia’s future, but there are several possible scenarios that could have substantial impacts on the the world. One scenario might be the advent of a new authoritarian regime, with, in effect, a new Stalin. This could come about in several ways, including the democratic election of an extremist president who would take advantage of the new Constitution, which grants the president sweeping powers. Or it could happen with a putsch, like that of August, 1991, which many believe could have succeeded if the plotters had been more ruthless. Or it could be a coup, which would repeat the earlier Russian history, in which an autocratic system was overthrown in favor of a democratic system, which was in turn overthrown by the Bolsheviks in a coup. The result would be a brief period of democracy between two authoritarian regimes.

A second scenario would be continued collapse of legal authority, leading to chaos and anarchy, with criminal gangs taking over whole regions of the country.

A third scenario is that of internal warfare expanding from conflicts in Chechnya and other areas to engulf a large part of the country as other regions attempt to secede from the Russian Federation.

A fourth scenario might follow the precedent of the former Yugoslavia, with Russia supporting minority Russian populations in Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan and elsewhere, n conflicts with the governments of these “near abroad” nations that contain large Russian populations.

There are other scenarios, but few if any bode well for global security.

As for another Cold War, it must be recognized that the 40-year hostility was not an aberration due to the peculiar situation after World War II or to Stalin’s personality or other special factors. One interpretation of the Cold War is that Stalin needed external enemies to justify internal repression to keep the country together. A new Stalin would have exactly the same need, although in this case amplified by the desire to protect Russians in the near abroad and possibly to attempt to reconstitute some or all of the Soviet Union.

Winston Churchill, in his 1938 book “While England Slept” criticized Britain for ignoring the threat from Nazi Germany, which erupted in war the next year. Many have noted the remarkable similarities between Russia today and the Weimar republic that preceded Hitler’s coming to power in 1933: loss of empire and status, depression, hyperinflation, destruction of the middle class and so on. It has been asked how the German people, highly civilized and educated, could have democratically installed Hitler, whose plan for war and genocide was clear. Perhaps the best answer is the simplest: Desperate people will do desperate things. The same could happen in Russia, with comparably disastrous consequences.

While England was “sleeping” in the 1930s, America may be similarly “sleeping” 60 years later. Wake up, America.