NEWS ANALYSIS : THE RECALL OF DORIS ALLEN : Speakership Still Under Contention : Politics: Some see clear path for Pringle, but Setencich efforts to keep post have created a buzz.

In the topsy-turvy world of California politics, the recall of Republican Assemblywoman Doris Allen would seem to finally settle all the old scores.

As many see it, Allen’s ouster gives a “real Republican,” presumably Assembly GOP Leader Curt Pringle of Garden Grove, the votes needed to assume the speakership and thus control the lower house’s policy apparatus and purse strings.

Not so fast. This is, after all, the California Assembly.

While boosters of Pringle talk of pushing their man into the Speaker’s chair when the Legislature reconvenes in January, the post’s current occupant--Brian Setencich, a freshman Republican from Fresno, has predicted he will hold onto the seat with the backing of up to a dozen disgruntled GOP lawmakers and all the Democrats.

The confidence of Setencich, who traveled the state during the recess to lobby his party colleagues, increasingly is backed up by the buzz among the handful of Republicans who retained cordial relations with both him and Allen during a legislative year that often resembled a fraternity food fight.

Allen, who became a recall target after she vaulted to the speakership in June by striking a deal with the Democrats, stepped down under pressure in September and handed the job to Setencich, who tapped into the same Democratic backing to beat Pringle, 41 to 39.

The only other Republican who voted for him then was Allen, but Setencich is now being viewed by several GOP cohorts as a palatable alternative to Pringle, who helped lead the Allen recall and is considered by many of the budding dissidents to be an overzealous practitioner of power politics.

None have come forward to publicly pledge their votes to Setencich in the struggle, preferring to wait at least until after today’s deadline for challengers to file for the Republican primary election in March. Many could stay hunched in the shadows until January, fearing the possibility of being pressured by a Republican establishment that has grown bitter over an inability to cement full control of the Assembly.

Behind the scenes, the issue is certainly on the front burner. It is expected to be among the more heated topics come Thursday, when the Assembly Republicans gather at a resort in Indian Wells for a little golf and three days of planning for the coming legislative year.

“I think people will be starting to firm up their positions this week,” said Assemblyman Brett Granlund (R-Yucaipa), who considers himself a friend of Setencich but has yet to make any public commitment to vote for him.

Granlund predicted that Setencich’s future, and Pringle’s, will depend on what they bring to the table. If Setencich, for instance, can woo certain members by appointing them to plum committee chairmanships or push through rule changes giving Republicans a sweeter share of the Assembly pie, he might be hard to beat.

Boosters of Pringle, meanwhile, are shaking their heads at all the talk. They argue that anyone who chooses to stand beside Setencich and his bloc of Democratic votes will only end up as a pariah within the party.

That’s an argument with precedent. Allen is the second Republican recalled this year because of a deal with the Democrats that kept the GOP from seizing full control. The first, former Assemblyman Paul Horcher, declared himself an independent last December and voted for longtime Democratic Speaker Willie Brown. He was tossed out of office in a Republican-led recall the following spring. That sort of political jihad has a way of pushing a wayward lawmaker back into the fold.

“I believe that Republicans are very concerned that we select a Speaker with a majority of the Republican caucus, not with the backing of Democrats,” Pringle said.

Some insiders in the Setencich camp say threats have already been floated, among them suggestions that any maverick will not receive reelection help from the party. In the realm of politics, that would be a critical snub; even incumbents count on campaign funding from the party and other lawmakers.

But some of the lawmakers leaning toward Setencich have noted that Pringle and several other GOP leaders will be out of the Assembly by 1998 because of the state’s term-limits law. With that in mind, they have suggested they might be able survive the 1996 election and work to shift the focus of the Republican Party toward a more encompassing platform by 1998.

Pringle, for one, has a ready retort: “There’s no term limits to party memory.”

His boosters, meanwhile, have privately suggested that Pringle himself might be able to coax away enough Democratic votes to overcome any Republican defections to Setencich. Pringle has focused in recent years on making inroads with Latino Democrats.

But there may be a fatal flaw to that strategy in Pringle’s past. During his election in 1988, Pringle was accused of helping plant uniformed guards at the polls with signs in Spanish warning non-citizens not to vote. Pringle denies he had any role in placing the guards, but the incident looms as a black mark among liberals and Latinos.

The strange calculus of the Assembly could also come into play.

Republicans currently outnumber Democrats 41 to 39, but that is expected to change. Brown is heavily favored to become mayor of San Francisco in a Dec. 12 election against incumbent Frank Jordan and would assume office the first week of January. Brown’s departure would leave his Assembly seat vacant for several months, seemingly increasing the odds for the Republicans.

Many of Setencich’s backers don’t think it will come to a vote.

“Come Jan. 3, Speaker Setencich will be able to organize a bipartisan house,” said Emma Suarez Pawlicki, Setencich’s press secretary. “The speakership is not being decided in Orange County on Tuesday, as much as some would like to believe that.”