Dry Spell Not a Problem Yet : Conservation Measures Have Kept State Reservoirs Full

Southern Californians have grown accustomed to the we’re-so-lucky routine. It happens almost every year around now.

The local weather forecaster points to shivering scenes of snow banks as high as 11 feet in Boston, New York and Philadelphia, and says cheerily, “Of course, it was nothing like that in Anaheim today, where the temperature reached a record 90 degrees. . . .”

Of course, blue skies and mild temperatures aren’t always a reason for celebration, as the drought-prone Southland has a history of proving.

Yet water officials are saying that a profound change in people’s water-use habits and other factors have kept reservoirs brimming with so much water that nobody’s especially worried about a drought--unless one lasts for three or four years.

“The last drought lit a serious fire under all of us,” said Ed Means, chief of operations for the Los Angeles-based Metropolitan Water District of Southern California, which supplies 27 agencies in Los Angeles, Orange and San Diego counties, which in turn pass it on to 16 million people.

“It had the ultimate effect of drought-proofing the state for the near future,” he said.

The rainy season is measured from July 1 through the following June 30, and so far this season, the region is well below normal, according to WeatherData Inc. Orange County has recorded only 1.47 inches of rain; the norm for this time of year is 4.2 inches. Last season, 6.31 inches had fallen by now.

And the forecast through the weekend calls for more of the same: warm afternoons, sweetened by soft, offshore winds and temperatures in the 70s with nary a cloud in the sky.

Which is part of the problem. Rainfall is now only 30% of normal throughout Los Angeles, Orange and San Diego counties, causing more than a few experts to mutter the D word.

The last great drought in California lasted from 1988 to 1993, draining reservoirs, killing crops, wrecking lawns and creating an almost frenzied push for conservation. However, the good news about a potential drought is, in fact, the C word.

Conservation has worked so well that even the most pessimistic water officials are optimistic these days despite Southern California’s prolonged sunny skies.

“Right now, most folks in the water business are not terribly concerned about a drought,” Means said. “It would be the second straight year of drought conditions that would cause us to take notice. But if a third or fourth year ensues, then we worry.”

Water officials say they know conservation works because of the steep reduction in demand for water experienced during the last two years of the drought--specifically, 1991 to 1993. And, they say, it’s a reduction in demand that has, to their surprise, continued unabated.

They credit a variety of in-home measures, including new strains of lawns and grasses that don’t require nearly as much water, with the sea change in philosophy and practice.

Even so, the steady rainfall of 1994 and 1995 has brought welcome relief to a parched, drought-ridden region. Last year yielded so much rain that Means said the state’s reservoirs are about 200% above normal.

And because Southern California imports most of its water from Northern California, or from the Colorado River--fed by Utah, Colorado and Wyoming--the water situation is even better.

“As of Jan. 3 of this year, the rainfall in the northern part of the state was 73% of normal,” Means said. “On the Colorado River side, it was 85% of normal. Of course, the figures are low for Southern California. But you have to remember--just a few weeks ago, we were having flooding in the [San Francisco] Bay Area, which helps us tremendously.”

Taking in all factors--the rise of conservation leading to what Means calls a “new water ethic in Southern California”--as well as imports running well above normal and reservoirs being full, the figures tell a story that even the most hardened observers find welcoming.

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Southern California’s demands for water in 1996 are an estimated 1.7 million acre feet, Means said, noting that the Colorado River aqueduct currently contains 1.3 million acre feet, “meaning all we’ll have to get out of the state system is 400,000 acre feet. We’ll come up with that easily, which is why we’re feeling good. The tricky part, again, is if we come up dry next year.”

Water officials define an acre foot as 326,000 gallons of water but in more practical terms say it’s the amount of water that two families would use on average during a year.

John Ellis, deputy agricultural commissioner of Orange County, said the current conditions are actually welcoming to area farmers. Last year, the county had $218 million in gross agricultural sales.

“It’s a little drier than most Januarys,” Ellis said, “but agriculture is doing pretty well with the kind of weather we have. It’s not being disrupted with rains or freezes.”

Ellis said the warmer weather may even contribute to planting some crops a bit earlier--squash, beans, cucumber, to mention a few.

But he too is familiar with the fickle ways of local weather.

“We’re still in the time frame where weather around here can change significantly,” Ellis said. “It can be warm and sunny and then real cold. Four years ago, we had a serious freeze on Valentine’s Day, one of the latest freezes we’ve ever had.”

The county’s main crop, Ellis said, is strawberries, and for that fruit, nothing could be finer than the kind of weather the county has recently enjoyed.

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Despite low rainfall recently, Means, the water district official, said a lingering conservation ethic has contributed to water-saving shower heads, low-flush toilets and new ways of managing water use and avoiding abuse that should make any future crisis much less severe than before.

In other words, thanks to the D word, we learned our lesson. Which should, as Means said with a laugh, alleviate our “So. Cal. smugness” while watching those sad-sack video feeds from the frozen tundra of New York, Philadelphia, Boston and Washington.

After all, there are always earthquakes, which have the effect of taking all that hubris and transplanting it from the West Coast to the East. At least until the blizzard of ’97 rolls around.

Times staff writer Len Hall contributed to this report.