Dole Wins State GOP Straw Poll for President

Kansas Sen. Bob Dole was the winner Sunday of a Republican presidential straw poll that may be a more accurate reflection of divisions within the state party than of candidate strength in California.

In mail-in balloting conducted over the last five weeks, Dole collected 36% of the 21,329 ballots tallied. Conservative commentator Patrick J. Buchanan was a strong second with 25%, and businessman Steve Forbes was third with 18%.

Gov. Pete Wilson, Dole’s general chairman in California, issued a statement promoting the Dole win as a “devastating blowout victory.”

“Today’s straw poll indicates that an overwhelming majority of Californians also believes that Bob Dole will be the man to unseat President Clinton,” Wilson said.

In fact, the combined tally of the three most conservative candidates--Buchanan, Texas Sen. Phil Gramm and former talk show host Alan Keyes--bettered Dole by one percentage point.

In contrast to the Wilson statement, state Atty. Gen. Dan Lungren, Dole’s state chairman, chuckled at the results and said they merely reflect the willingness of Dole supporters to spend $25 each to participate in the poll.

It was, essentially, a state party fund-raising ploy, Lungren said.

About 400,000 ballots were mailed to California Republicans. Many went to names on contributor lists submitted to the state party by the Dole, Buchanan and Forbes campaigns.

About 1,500 state party officials also became eligible to vote when they paid their $60 registration fee for the three-day state convention that ended Sunday.

Lungren said the straw poll “is not an accurate reflection of where Dole stands in the state of California.” Independent public opinion surveys have shown Dole running stronger than that, he said.

But state party Chairman John Herrington argued that the poll was “a good snapshot” of relative candidate strength six weeks before the March 26 California primary.

Not pleased, however, were conservative activists, who generally dominate the ranks of the state party and had called instead for “a real straw poll” of convention delegates, said Jon Fleischmann of Irvine, president of the California Republican Assembly. Such a poll could have been added to the ballot that the delegates cast in Sunday’s election of a national Republican committeeman and committeewoman, he said.

The top state party officials, led by Wilson, refused, Fleischmann argued, “because they couldn’t guarantee the outcome.”

Fleischmann said he did not know who would win such a test but that “it wouldn’t be Bob Dole.”

In the past year, conservatives have been split among Buchanan, Gramm and Keyes.

Buchanan drew a majority of delegate support at last fall’s convention of the California Republican Assembly, a volunteer body of the most committed conservative activists, but not enough for a formal endorsement.

On Sunday, however, Buchanan outscored Gramm and Keyes by more than two to one. Gramm had 9% and Keyes 3%.

“It’s a big win for Patrick Buchanan,” said state Sen. Richard Mountjoy of Arcadia, Buchanan’s state chairman. “It shows that the grass-roots out there support him.”

Wilson ignored Buchanan’s second-place finish and sought to emphasize Dole’s strength relative to Forbes. “His closest rival in national polls, Steve Forbes, weighed in at a disappointing 18%,” Wilson said.

But Forbes supporter Lesley Fleischmann, the spouse of Jon Fleischmann and also an officer of the California Republican Assembly, was far from disappointed. “I’m thrilled to death,” she said.

Meanwhile, the overwhelming election of Assemblywoman Barbara Alby of Fair Oaks and Tim Morgan of Santa Cruz to the Republican National Committee was hailed by conservatives as a sweet triumph over Wilson.

Wilson infuriated conservatives several years ago when he enlisted Republican National Committee help on behalf of several moderates running against conservatives in GOP primaries for Assembly seats. One of the conservatives was Alby.

Traditionally, the national committeeman and committeewoman have been handpicked by the governor. But after Wilson’s intervention in the bitter intraparty Assembly contests, conservatives successfully demanded that the posts be filled instead by election.

With Mike Schroeder of Orange County, a former CRA president, scheduled to succeed Herrington as state party chairman next January, the conservatives--closely allied with the Christian Coalition--will then command all three top state party positions.

The poll results, with percentages rounded off, were: Dole 7,753, 36%; Buchanan, 5,384, 25%; Forbes, 3,876, 18%; Gramm, 1,948, 9%; Keyes, 664, 3%; Lamar Alexander, 431, 2%; Richard Lugar, 217, 1%; Robert K. Dornan, 209, 1%; Morry Taylor, 201, 1%; other, 646, 3%.