California May Yet Get Clout It Deserves

Now that the two dwarf states have had their fun--and made Pat Buchanan the front-runner for the Republican presidential nomination-- Californians wonder whether they’ll get a chance to play before the game ends.

The midgets again have been showered with attention and elevated to an importance that, although real, has little justification.

To put this in perspective, consider: When the nation’s largest state finally is allowed to vote on March 26, it will be offering some candidate more than 10 times the GOP delegates won in New Hampshire.

New Hampshire’s tiny twin, Iowa, despite all the commotion, actually dispensed no delegates. All that fuss was about a nonbinding straw vote at precinct caucuses.

California has more delegates than the first seven primaries combined. And California’s 165 will be awarded to the candidate who finishes first, unlike other states where delegates are parceled in proportion to the vote. In California, the prize is a jackpot--nearly 17% of those needed to be nominated.

Another thing for perspective: There were more GOP voters in Orange County alone during the last gubernatorial primary--a virtual non-contest--than there were in the entire state of New Hampshire on Tuesday. There were more voters in Riverside County in that primary than attended the Iowa caucuses.

It’s one thing for these pampered peewees to be the first to vote--fine, let them be spoiled--but by the time California weighs in next month, 60% of the delegates already will have been allotted. California should get to vote before the winner is decided.

To escape this farce in 2000, here’s one solution: a presidential-only primary in California, with all the state contests returned to the traditional June election. Couple that with regional presidential primaries around the country, spaced a few weeks apart; dates rotated every four years so no region gains perpetual clout.

But to avoid tantrums, let Iowa and New Hampshire still play first.

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Back to the present.

The New Hampshire primary did increase the odds that California’s contest will be significant--that we won’t just be confirming a presumptive nominee, but helping to choose one. It’s now more possible, if still improbable.

“The odds were 10 to 1 against it before Iowa; now they’re about 3 to 1,” says veteran political consultant Ken Khachigian, who is neutral in the race.

The conventional wisdom is that for California to become meaningful, three or four candidates will need to stay in the contest. Buchanan--savvy, articulate and engaging--travels light on little cash. He’s in it until the end as the common enemy of the others. Steve Forbes can afford to stay in financially, but at some point he’ll have to ask whether his psyche can afford the beating week after week.

Since, according to the consensus, neither Buchanan nor Forbes can be nominated--the former’s too extreme, the latter’s blown it--Sen. Bob Dole and Lamar Alexander are left to slug it out for the nomination.

“Step aside,” demands Alexander. “The fight’s just begun,” Dole insists.

If both still are standing on March 26, California could well decide the winner.

But that’s not going to happen, predicts another neutral guru, Republican Sal Russo. He believes “the most likely scenario” is that Dole wins the next four primaries: Delaware on Saturday, Arizona and the two Dakotas next Tuesday. Then that boosts him to a credible finish--even if Buchanan wins--in crucial South Carolina on March 2.

“It’s hard to see where Alexander turns the corner and wins,” Russo says, because Alexander is broke. “You can go just so far on momentum and fumes. You need TV advertising. Dole has legs--money and organization.”

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But not much of a message, as we’ve seen--and only an embryonic organization in California. So far, just a couple of paid advisors and one county chairman (San Diego), plus the kingpins: Atty. Gen. Dan Lungren and Gov. Pete Wilson.

At that, Dole is better organized in California than the other candidates. Alexander has virtually no presence. Everybody has been focusing on the pygmies.

“These guys better organize in this state because it’s totally wide open,” Khachigian says. “Whoever runs here has to be extremely skillful and understand the different constituencies--the L.A. suburbs, the Inland Empire, the San Joaquin Valley. . . . There’s a big, big potential Buchanan constituency all over this state.”

Dole vs. Buchanan. That’s reminiscent of another contest 32 years ago: Nelson Rockefeller vs. Barry Goldwater, California’s last decisive GOP primary.