A Primary Drawback for Buchanan

When you look at the California electorate, you see a lot of potential support for Pat Buchanan--especially for the economic populism that could evolve into a referendum on corporate America.

You see all those Ross Perot voters, independents, Reagan Democrats. . . . Then you say to yourself, whoops! Look again. Wrong electorate.

Many of these people won’t be voting in the California primary, at least where Buchanan is running. California’s primary is “closed.” Only party members can participate in a party’s primary. That excludes from the GOP presidential contest members of Perot’s new Reform Party, “declined to state” independents, American Independents and blue-collar Democrats.

This hurts candidates like Buchanan and even Lamar Alexander, who appeal to maverick voters not particularly impressed by party hierarchies and establishment endorsements.

By contrast, most states hold “open” primaries that permit some form of party crossover voting, at least by independents. New Hampshire, for example.

In New Hampshire, according to a Times exit poll, Senate leader Bob Dole would have won a California-style closed primary.

Dole edged Buchanan by one percentage point among Republicans, but lost to him by eight among independents. The senator beat Alexander by 11 points among Republicans, but got trounced by 13 among independents. Roughly one-third of the GOP electorate were independents, providing a hybrid mix that gave Buchanan a one-point victory over Dole.

Another exit poll documented Buchanan’s popularity among voters who supported Perot in 1992. This group backed Buchanan by 18 points over Dole and 10 over Alexander.

In California four years ago, Perot’s strongest support group was independents.

“If we had an open primary, Pat would win hands down,” asserts state Sen. Richard Mountjoy (R-Arcadia), Buchanan’s California chairman.

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Still, Buchanan clearly has a Republican base in California. In 1992, he captured 26% of the primary vote against President George Bush. That November, 24% of Republicans sided with Perot.

Campaign consultant Wayne Johnson, an early advisor to Sen. Phil Gramm, believes the core of Buchanan’s GOP support is cultural conservatives, specifically Catholics and Protestant fundamentalists. Buchanan’s trade protectionism, he predicts, “never will become prevailing ideology” in the party.

According to a Times poll, 18% of California Republicans are white Protestant fundamentalists. Another 29% are Catholics.

Nevertheless, the Rev. Lou Sheldon, chairman of the Traditional Values Coalition--8,300 evangelical Protestant churches in California--is uneasy about Buchanan. “Right now he’s resonating with social conservatives,” says Sheldon, who had backed Gramm. “But after the rhetoric wears off, people will begin to ask hard questions.”

Questions like, “Is he as pro-Israel as we are?” Sheldon says, and does he tolerate racism?

Also, Sheldon adds, “Here on the Pacific Rim, a lot of social conservatives depend on free trade.”

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“No state would be hurt more by protectionism than California,” insists Ted Gibson, chief economist for the state government. “It would be a total disaster. We could shoot ourselves in all 10 toes.”

Gibson notes that California is the nation’s biggest trader: Trade feeds 16% of the state’s economy. Exports last year totaled $115 billion, providing 2.4 million jobs. Computer-related exports alone approach $40 billion annually; agriculture, $11 billion. The Los Angeles-Long Beach port complex is the nation’s biggest.

Buchanan supporters probably have been focusing less on trade, however, than they have job insecurity, declining wages and layoffs--all traditional Democratic issues. It’s this vein of worker frustration that Buchanan hopes to mine in California, says Mountjoy.

“The big multinational corporations don’t care about us,” asserts the GOP lawmaker. “They buy both sides of the [legislative] aisle. They have no loyalty to a party. They really couldn’t care less about the United States when you get right down to it. Their allegiance is to the bottom line.”

This isn’t just another Republican battle between Wall Street and Main Street. Buchanan is recruiting people fearful of being tossed on the street.

Mountjoy has a list of 200,000 Reform and American Independent party members who used to be Republicans. They’re being urged to temporarily switch back so they can vote for Buchanan. But they’ll need to register as Republicans by today’s deadline.

Then on March 26, everybody who wants to junk this closed system can vote for Proposition 198 to create an open primary for the future.