Dole, President in Virtual Dead Heat

Sen. Bob Dole, who became the prohibitive favorite to win the GOP presidential nomination with a primary sweep Tuesday, is in a virtual dead heat with President Clinton in Orange County, the storied heart of California Republicanism.

According to a new Times Orange County Poll, Clinton leads the Kansas senator in Orange County 46% to 44% on the strength of support from most of the county’s Democrats, nearly half its independents and a quarter of its GOP voters.

The poll, a dose of harsh reality in a week of extraordinarily positive results for Dole, spelled even more sobering news for other Republican presidential candidates.

In head-to-head races, Clinton would defeat Steve Forbes by 5 points and Pat Buchanan by 22, the survey showed. Against former Tennessee Gov. Lamar Alexander, who quit the race Wednesday, Clinton would win by 49% to 35%, the poll shows.

“Dole is clearly the strongest among what is basically a weak group of [Republican] candidates right now, but he has a long, long way to go,” said Mark Baldassare, a UC Irvine professor who conducted the poll for The Times. “He’s the front-runner, but he cannot take even Republican Orange County for granted in this election.”

California, which has more electoral votes than any other state, is key to the presidential aspirations of any candidate. To capture California in November, a Republican generally must win by at least a 2-1 ratio in Orange County to balance the Democratic turnout in other parts of the state.

“For a Republican candidate to win in this state, which has a higher Democratic than Republican registration, it’s critical to win big in Orange County,” Baldassare said. “I think these results will be very sobering for the Dole campaign, and even more so for the others.”

Dole’s status as the front-runner for the Republican nomination was cemented Tuesday with his eight primary victories, then capped with the withdrawals Wednesday of Alexander and Sen. Richard G. Lugar of Indiana.

But the poll results show that Orange County’s normally loyal Republican voters might be feeling fickle this election year.

Sheila Marcus, a grant writer from Fountain Valley and a former Ocean View School District Board member, is one Republican who is planning to vote for Clinton in the general election.

“I would vote for Clinton because I think he has matured in the position and has been able to demonstrate some leadership I could admire,” Marcus said. “Plus he has been expressing viewpoints that are more in line with middle America.”

The telephone survey of 600 registered Orange County voters, conducted March 1-4, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

For Clinton, the survey contained mostly good news. It found county voters in a surprisingly favorable mood about both the Democratic president and the direction the country is headed under his leadership.

Orange County voters give Clinton generally better job ratings than they gave George Bush four years ago. Three in 10 say they believe he is doing an excellent or good job of handling the economy and creating jobs; the same number give him positive ratings for his handling of the federal budget and tax issues.

Half of Orange County voters surveyed said they have a favorable opinion of the president, a 10-point increase from his ratings in a Times Orange County Poll in October 1992, just before the last presidential election.

Dole is comfortably ahead of his rivals here as the March 26 Republican primary approaches. Orange County GOP voters give him 30% of the vote, to 18% for Forbes, 16% for Buchanan and 3% for Alexander. Three in 10 are still undecided. Dole’s margin over his competitors narrows slightly among those Republicans considered most likely to vote.

Rep. Robert K. Dornan, the Garden Grove Republican who is making a quixotic run for the Republican presidential nomination, would receive 1% of the vote from his home county if the primary were held today, the poll showed.

Marcus said she will vote for Dole in the primary.

“I think Dole has a more moderate view [among Republican candidates],” Marcus said. “I studied the flat tax and that’s not the answer. Forbes doesn’t have that experience to be an effective leader, regardless of how noble his ideas are. He doesn’t have the experience.”

Buchanan’s politics, Marcus said, are too extreme.

“He follows a rather extreme view and I don’t know if there’s an issue I agree with him on,” she said.

But Mike Yeager, 33, of Mission Viejo says he favors Buchanan, a conservative commentator.

“I don’t think Dole speaks for himself,” said Yeager, a sanitation plant worker. “It’s like he has other people making up his mind as far as what he says or what he’s going to do.”

Half the voters polled say the country is seriously off on the wrong track, down from two-thirds in October 1992. Four in 10 say the country is headed in the right direction.

Clinton, as the incumbent president, benefits from a general public perception that the economy is on the upswing, Baldassare said.

On issues affecting the Republican presidential primary, Orange County voters appeared to turn a cold shoulder to Buchanan’s isolationist leanings and campaign-trail attacks on U.S. free-trade agreements.

Nearly 7 in 10 poll respondents said they favor free-trade agreements, such as the North American Free Trade Agreement between the United States, Mexico and Canada. And nearly nine in 10 said the U.S. should be active in world affairs.

On immigration, often a hot-button issue in Orange County, which gave birth to Proposition 187, half of those polled said they believe that immigrants are a burden on U.S. society, while 41% disagreed. National polls two years ago showed even stronger anti-immigrant sentiment.

Times staff writer David Reyes contributed to this report.

* NEW ENDORSEMENTS: Bush, sons speak up for Dole while Kemp backs Forbes. A10

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How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Orange County Poll was conducted by Mark Baldassare & Associates. The telephone survey of 600 Orange County registered voters was conducted March 1-4 on weekday nights and weekend days. The margin of error for the total sample is plus or minus 4 percentage points. The margin of error for likely voters in the March primary is plus or minus 6 percentage points.

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Clinton Faring Well Versus Leading Republicans

Orange County Republicans favor Sen. Bob Dole for the party’s nomination, though his lead is narrower among likely primary voters. None of the three leading GOP candidates would beat President Clinton in a head-to-head contest:

If the March 26 California Primary for the Republican presidential candidate wereheld today, would you vote for:

*--*

All GOP voters Likely GOP voters Bob Dole 30% 27% Steve Forbes 18% 21% Pat Buchanan 16% 18% Robert Dornan 1% 1% Others 6% 7% Don’t know 29% 26%

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Note: “Others” includes Lamar Alexander, who dropped out of the race Wednesday.

****

If the presidential election were held today and included the following two candidates, would you vote for:

Registered Voters

Bill Clinton: 46%

Bob Dole: 44%

Other: 2%

Don’t know: 8%

Bill Clinton: 46%

Steve Forbes: 41%

Other: 3%

Don’t know: 10%

Bill Clinton: 54%

Pat Buchanan: 32%

Other: 4%

Don’t know: 10%

****

Clinton’s Report Card

Clinton has turned around his rating among Orange County voters. They are more likely to believe the country is headed in the right direction than they were when President Bush was in office in 1992. Clinton’s job performance ratings on the economy, the federal budget and taxes are higher now than were Bush’s in 1992:

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Bill Clinton?

*--*

1992 1996 Favorable 41% 51% Unfavorable 53% 44% Don’t know 6% 5%

*--*

****

Do you think things in this country are generally going in the right direction, orare they seriously off on the wrong track?

*--*

1992 1996 Right direction 26% 41% Wrong track 67% 51% Don’t know 7% 8%

*--*

****

How would you rate the performance of President . . . in handling jobs and theeconomy?

*--*

Bush Clinton 1992 1996 Excellent/good 13% 32% Fair 32% 36% Poor 54% 30% Don’t know 1% 2%

*--*

****

How would you rate the performance of President . . . in handling the federalbudget and taxes?

*--*

Bush Clinton 1992 1996 Excellent/good 16% 29% Fair 39% 35% Poor 45% 34% Don’t know 0% 2%

*--*

****

On the issues

Orange County voters are generally in line with their counterparts nationwide on four issues that are important in the Republican primary. Locals are, however, more likely to have a positive view of immigrants’ roles in the United States:

Do you favor or oppose free trade agreements between the United States and othercountries, such as the North American Free Trade Agreement between the United States,Canada and Mexico?

*--*

U.S. Orange County Favor 62% 68% Oppose 28% 23% Don’t know 10% 9%

*--*

****

It is best for the future of our country to be active in world affairs.

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U.S. Orange County Completely Agree 51% 54% Mostly Agree 39% 33% Mostly Disagree 7% 7% Completely Disagree 2% 4% Don’t know 1% 2%

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****

Business corporations generally strike a fair balance between making profits andserving the public interest.

*--*

U.S. Orange County Completely Agree 7% 14% Mostly Agree 38% 34% Mostly Disagree 38% 28% Completely Disagree 15% 17% Don’t know 2% 7%

*--*

****

Immigrants today are a burden on our country because they take our jobs, housing andhealth care.

*--*

U.S. Orange County Agree 63% 53% Disagree 31% 41% Don’t know 6% 6%

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Sources: Times Orange County Poll, 1994 Times Mirror Political Typology Survey (U.S.).