THE TIMES POLL : Dole Far Ahead of Buchanan in State but Trails Clinton

Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole holds a crushing lead over his tart-tongued challenger Patrick J. Buchanan just one week before the California presidential primary, but still faces an uphill struggle here against President Clinton this fall, a new Los Angeles Times poll has found.

Assuming the moderately low turnout predicted by state officials, Dole would beat Buchanan 52% to 18% among likely Republican voters, with former candidate Steve Forbes carrying 9% and another former candidate, Lamar Alexander, raking in 7%.

For the general election, however, Dole’s prospects are hardly rosy at this early stage, as he trails Clinton statewide by a distant 58% to 37%. When given a list of eight issues and asked whether Clinton or Dole is better able to handle them, California voters in seven cases chose the president, and in the eighth split between the two men.

Even on affirmative action, where Californians are closer to Dole’s position than Clinton’s, they chose Clinton as the candidate best able to handle the issue.

Despite his rising popularity and early advantage over Dole, however, Clinton is not the most popular political figure to Californians. That honor goes, here as elsewhere, to retired Gen. Colin Powell, who remains the object of unrequited political lust. Two-thirds of the voters here have a favorable impression of the retired military man, and adding him to the Dole ticket as vice presidential nominee substantially narrows the gap between Dole and Clinton.

Adding California Gov. Pete Wilson, however, would widen Clinton’s lead.

Overall, the survey found that women and the elderly are powering a resurgence of Democratic strength in California, suggesting a strong undercurrent of resentment toward GOP efforts to cut social services and government programs. In addition, Clinton has helped his cause with his intense concentration and government spending on California since the 1992 election.

Less than two years after Republicans swept into power in Congress, the poll showed that most voters, by a 50%-40% margin, now prefer to vote for a Democrat in their congressional district. Although that is hardly conclusive eight months before the general election--and before each party’s nominees are chosen--it does echo the 53%-37% preference for Democrats that presaged the November 1992 Democratic sweep here.

“Clinton’s visits, coming back to California, have really helped him,” said Susan Pinkus, acting Times Poll director. But, she cautioned, “a lot can happen between now and November.”

The Times Poll surveyed 1,337 Californians, including 1,071 registered voters, by telephone March 13 to 17. The margin of sampling error for both groups is 3 percentage points in either direction. Margins for smaller sub-groups may be larger.

The poll suggests that it is Buchanan’s image, a highly negative one, that is driving opinions about the presidential primary race. Nearly two-thirds of the voters here have an unfavorable impression of the former commentator, and 42% say they look upon him “very” unfavorably.

In comparison, a poll taken shortly before the 1992 California primary, which Buchanan fought against George Bush, found that a smaller 47% had an unfavorable impression of Buchanan.

“The more you get to know him, the more you don’t like him,” Pinkus said the poll indicates.

Even among conservatives and registered Republicans, Buchanan is unpopular. More than half of each judged him unfavorably, with about three in 10 of both groups saying they had a “very unfavorable” impression.

Similarly, 82% of voters--and 76% of voters calling themselves conservatives--said they were unlikely to support a third-party candidacy by Buchanan, a move he has been hinting at as he seeks to expand his bargaining power before the August Republican National Convention in San Diego.

Majorities of virtually all demographic and ideological groups said Buchanan was “too extreme” for their tastes, including 71% of registered voters, 65% of Republicans and 62% of conservatives, whose support has buttressed Buchanan elsewhere.

No matter whether turnout was assumed to be high or low, Buchanan failed to win more than 19% of likely voters.

Dole appears to triumph largely on Buchanan’s negatives and on his own stature as a bulwark of the Washington Republican establishment. Contrary to what might have been believed during the roller coaster turns in the early primary season, Dole’s experience appears to be a strength, rather than the weakness his opponents have suggested.

More than half of registered voters, for example, said that Dole’s Washington experience would help him, and only 10% said it would hurt. Even among Democrats, 43% said Dole’s resume was helpful and only 13% said it would hurt.

If Dole is, as he has suggested, going to run in the general election on the strength of his long-term leadership, there is a downside: A sizable minority of voters, 43%, already believe that the 72-year-old senator is too old to be president. Among politically influential independents, more than a third believed Dole to be too old. And in his own age group, the 65-and-over, 56% said he was too old.

According to the poll, Dole has more support when voters are simply asked their views of him than when they are asked to judge him against the popular Clinton.

For example, when asked if Dole has the leadership qualities to be president, 63% said he did and 29% said he did not, slightly better than the 61%-35% proportion that registered voters gave to Clinton in a separate question.

Even among Democrats, Dole scored well. Fifty percent said he had leadership qualities, while 40% said he did not. Among liberals, 48% said he did and 43% said he did not. Clinton did not fare as well among Republicans--who denied him leadership qualities by a 31%-67% margin, and conservatives, 37% of whom said he had such attributes and 59% of whom said he did not.

But that gives a misleading picture of the broader Clinton-Dole battle, which the president wins running away at this stage of the election season.

Against Dole, Clinton wins 58%-37%, and the margin changes little if Texas billionaire Ross Perot, who is flirting with a second straight independent bid, enters the race. Perot would pull 15% of the electorate, with 52% still siding with Clinton and 30% with Dole, meaning that Perot’s influence is negligible.

While Perot takes evenly from both Clinton and Dole, another candidate, longtime consumer activist Ralph Nader, who will be on the California ballot as a representative of the Green Party, adds yet another permutation.

In a four-man race, Clinton gets 47%, Dole 31%, Perot 12% and Nader 7%, meaning that Nader takes his votes from Clinton and Perot. Conceivably, he could have an impact on a Clinton-Dole contest if it was exceptionally tight.

While the race for now belongs to Clinton, the addition of the immensely popular Powell changes the equation to a significant degree.

When Powell is added to the Republican ticket as vice presidential nominee, Clinton’s 21-point lead shrinks to 10 points, a 52%-42% margin among registered voters. When Gov. Wilson is added to the GOP ticket, in contrast, the Clinton lead expands to 24 percentage points, 60%-36%.

Riding high, undoubtedly in part because he has not been damaged by the hurly-burly of the primary season, Powell was judged favorably by more than two-thirds of registered voters. Agreeing were 65% of both Democrats and independents, whose votes he would have to carry to win election. Testament to Powell’s popularity is that the ideological poles, conservatives and liberals, approve of him in almost precisely the same proportions--69% and 70% respectively.

Clinton, although more popular than at almost any time in his presidency, barely approaches Powell’s levels. Overall, 62% give him a favorable impression, including 60% of independents and a bare 28% of Republicans.

Asked in a separate question how Clinton is doing as president, 57% of registered voters statewide approved of him, up from 52% in a Times poll in September. Among all Californians, 56% approved, close to Clinton’s all-time high of 58% awarded in March of 1994, before his popularity slumped.

Clinton’s popularity seems to be is sheathed in Teflon for the moment, with his unpopular stands on two controversial California issues raising barely a ripple of discontent. The president, for example, bucked majority opinion in 1994 to oppose Proposition 187, which sought to curb state services to illegal immigrants. But now he leads, if only slightly, among those who characterize 187 as a “good idea.” Not surprisingly, he commands by a broad margin those who disapproved of the measure.

Similarly, Clinton intends to campaign against the “California civil rights initiative,” a probable November ballot measure, which seeks to eradicate state affirmative action programs and which won the support of 2/3 of voters in the poll. Eight percent said they would be more likely to vote for Clinton because of his stance, while 16% said they would be less likely.

But that 8-point negative is dwarfed by the 68% who said his stance would make no difference, meaning that only in a close election would the subject come into play.

Apart from Powell and Clinton, none of the other presidential contenders made nearly as strong an impression.

Dole, for example, had a favorable impression of 49%, to 43% negative. Nader was seen favorably by 39%, with 22% negative and fully one-third saying they did not know enough about him to come to a decision. More evidence that Nader’s glory days may be behind him: Fully 65% of 18-29-year-olds said they had not heard enough about him to decide.

And Perot, like Buchanan, leaves voters with a negative impression, with 31% of registered voters looking on him positively and 58% seeing him unfavorably. A month before the 1992 general election, that statistic was virtually reversed, with 58% favoring him and 34% disliking him. Perot’s slump can most clearly be seen in his natural constituency, the independent voters. Now, they split 42%-41% on whether to view him favorably or unfavorably.

In many instances, particularly in the matchups between candidates, there was a strong gap between the positions of men and women voters--with Dole the beneficiary in the primary and Clinton at the advantage in the general election.

While women voters went overwhelmingly to Dole--65% to Buchanan’s 14% and 5% for former candidate Forbes--men were somewhat more spread out. Forty-eight percent went to Dole, 18% to Buchanan and 12% of men to Forbes.

In the Clinton-Dole race, women transferred their allegiance to Clinton. Among men, Clinton led 54%-40%, a 14-point margin considerably smaller than the 21-point gap overall. Among women, by contrast, the margin was virtually double that of men at 29 points, or 62%-33%.

The gender distinctions were even more pronounced when Powell was added to the GOP ticket. Then, men supported Clinton but only by a razor-thin 2 points, 47%-45%. Women, however, continued to side with Clinton by a wide 57%-39%.

Along with the gender gap came a distinct age gap, with older Californians far more loyal to Clinton than their younger counterparts. In a two-man race between Clinton and Dole, for example, 54% of the 18- to 29-year-olds sided with Clinton, while 65% of those 65 and over did so.

In a three-man race between Dole, Clinton and Perot, only 43% of 18- to 29-year-olds voted for Clinton, whereas a stable 64% of the older voters stuck with him. The results indicated that older voters, highly prized because of their high propensity to vote, have responded to Clinton’s recent stands on cuts in senior citizen benefits.

Final evidence of the hurdles that Dole must surmount if he is to defeat Clinton in California in November were the priorities that voters placed on specific issues and who, at this point, they judge to be the best candidate to handle those issues.

Although Dole split with Clinton over who would be best at balancing the budget, the president had a narrow lead on the issue of taxes and a substantial 45%-34% lead when it came to the economy in general. Similarly, the commander-in-chief was judged best on foreign affairs, 47%-34%.

And he blitzed Dole on two other issues believed to be in the Republican domain. Asked who could better handle the issue of affirmative action, Clinton led 50%-29%. On illegal immigration, he narrowly defeated Dole, 35%-30%.

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

Presidential Primary

With just one week to go before the California primary, Bob Dole holds a commanding lead over Pat Buchanan among likely Republican primary voters. However, Bill Clinton is quite popular in the state and would beat Dole in any scenario if the general election were held today.

GOP HORSE RACE (Among likely Republican primary voters)

Dole: 52%

Buchanan: 18%

Others: 25%

Don’t know: 5%

****

POSSIBLE MATCHUPS (Among registered voters)

Clinton vs. Dole

Clinton: 58%

Dole: 37%

Someone else: 1%

Don’t know: 4%

*

Clinton/Gore vs. Dole/Powell

Clinton/Gore: 52%

Dole/Powell: 42%

Someone else: 1%

Don’t know: 5%

*

Clinton vs. Dole and Perot

Clinton: 52%

Dole: 30%

Perot: 15%

Don’t know: 3%

*

Clinton/Gore vs. Dole/Wilson

Clinton/Gore: 60%

Dole/Wilson: 36%

Someone else: 1%

Don’t know: 3%

****

BILL CLINTON APPROVAL RATING (Among all adults)

*--*

Now 9/95 3/95 3/94 3/93 Approve 56% 52% 50% 58% 51% Disapprove 39% 41% 41% 35% 29% Don’t know 5% 7% 9% 7% 20%

*--*

****

FEELINGS ABOUT DOLE (Among registered voters)

Experience

As you may know, Bob Dole has been a U.S. senator for more than 25 years. Do you think Bob Dole’s experience in Washington will help him to be a good president, or will it hurt him, or will it make no difference one way or the other?

Help him: 58%

Hurt him: 10%

No difference: 32%

Don’t know: 3%

*

Age

As you may know Bob Dole will be 73 years old if he is elected president in November. Do you think Bob Dole is too old to be president or not too old to be president?

Too old: 43%

Not too old: 54%

Don’t know: 3%

Source: Los Angeles Times Poll

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll contacted 1,337 California adults by telephone between March 13 and March 17. Included in the sample were 1,071 registered voters and 247 registered likely Republican voters.

Interviewing was conducted in English and Spanish. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the state. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that both listed and unlisted numbers could be contacted. The sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education, region and registration. The margin of sampling error for the total sample and all registered voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points; for likely Republican voters it is 6 points. For certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.