U.S. Carrier Off Taiwan Trails Analysts’ Worries in Its Wake

ABOARD THE USS INDEPENDENCE — Just 230 miles southeast of Taiwan, on this hulking gray symbol of American power, assistant combat officer Joe Pine explained his orders: “To preserve stability in the region,” Pine said, “and to defend Independence.”

He meant the aircraft carrier--part of the largest armada assembled in Asia since the Vietnam War--sent to keep an eye on China’s war games being performed perilously close to Taiwan.

But China worries that the carrier may be too aptly named. Any U.S. move into the Taiwan Strait, Chinese leaders say, could encourage thoughts of independence in the prodigal province that Beijing has alternately tried to cajole and coerce back to the motherland.

“Should foreign forces collude to interfere in Taiwan or try to split the motherland, then the situation would become very risky,” Chinese Foreign Minister Qian Qichen said after the Independence began patrolling the area. “Maybe they forget that Taiwan is a part of China and not a protectorate of the U.S.”

Despite Washington’s long-stated policy of “strategic ambiguity”--keeping U.S. intentions and alliances in the Taiwan Strait undefined to balance its interests in both Taiwan and China--the Independence’s move near Taiwan (where it is soon to be joined by the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Nimitz) makes the U.S. policy look markedly less ambiguous, some analysts say.

“The presence of the carriers shows that the U.S. has picked their side,” said Shunji Taoka, a Japanese military analyst and commentator on Asian security issues, “and it’s Taiwan.” Analysts even venture that rather than defusing tensions, the deployment of two U.S. carrier groups has heightened them.

“We upped the ante when we sent the carriers and publicly signaled we were prepared to defend Taiwan in case of China’s use of force,” said retired Rear Adm. Eugene Carroll, formerly commander of the aircraft carrier Midway, speaking by phone from Washington.

“It introduces the potential for unintentional consequences . . . and it increases the chances of Taiwan taking actions to lock us into defending them,” he said.

Speaking in a room in the belly of the Independence the other day, Rear Adm. James O. Ellis Jr. said the carrier is there to “signal all nations in Asia that we are committed to maintaining peace and stability in the region.”

Ellis was careful not to talk about China as a potential adversary or even concede that the ship is there to support Taiwan in case of attack or accident. While the rest of the world is focused on the Independence and what its role might be if tensions erupt nearby, the 5,600 crewmen have been told not to talk about the matter.

When helicopter pilots set up practice attack missions, they talk about “blue versus orange” teams. But soon, the code words slip and they are talking about “pursuing Chinese subs.”

In the fighter pilots’ ready room, jumpsuited fliers demonstrated dogfight maneuvers with model airplanes: one an F-14, the other a Russian-made SU-27 fighter jet that is a staple of China’s air force.

On deck, a flight technician did a quick calculation. “We can get to the strait in less than a half an hour,” he said with a cocky grin.

There is good reason to maintain the official U.S. ambiguity, said former Assistant Secretary of Defense Joseph S. Nye Jr., speaking by phone from Cambridge, Mass. “If you give Taiwan an ironclad guarantee of protection, it’s like a blank check; they can write whatever they want into it,” Nye said.

China has already turned its psychological warfare techniques toward the U.S., said Winston Lord, assistant secretary of state for Asian and Pacific affairs, describing on C-SPAN on Sunday how Chinese officials had threatened to “rain nuclear bombs on Los Angeles” if the U.S. defended Taiwan.

Lord derided the threat--reported in The Times in January after a visit to China by Charles W. Freeman Jr., a former assistant secretary of defense--as “a little disinformation, psychological warfare,” and stressed that it did not represent official Chinese policy.

Some countries in the region fear that an attempt by China to match U.S. firepower could spark a new arms race.

But U.S. Navy officials hope that the potential conflict will reinforce the desirability of America’s strategic role in the region. Capt. David B. Polatty III pointed out that the aircraft carrier can stay at sea indefinitely and stage maneuvers “without infringing on rights or borders.”

His crew is ready for “the worst that can happen,” he said. “We’re training to be able to project power if it’s needed, but if we do things right, we won’t ever have to do it.”

Times staff writer Stanley Meisler in Washington contributed to this report.