THE TIMES POLL : Voters Back School Bond and Open Primary Issues

Two disparate propositions--the move to create an open political primary and a $3-billion school bond issue--appear popular among voters heading into California elections Tuesday, a Los Angeles Times poll shows. But two others that have been the focus of an intense advertising campaign may be in trouble.

Neither Proposition 200, which would establish a no-fault automobile insurance system, nor Proposition 202, which would limit attorneys’ fees in civil lawsuits, has the required majority behind it at this point, the poll found.

A survey of likely voters showed the no-fault proposal losing by 50% to 37%, following in the footsteps of the 1988 no-fault proposal, which was trounced at the polls.

The proposition covering attorneys’ fees is slightly ahead, 45% to 35%. But with another 20% of the likely voters unsure about it, the measure’s fate appears highly uncertain.

In contrast, Proposition 198, which would allow primary election voters to cast ballots for any candidate, is ahead, 55% to 29%. The school bond issue, Proposition 203, is ahead by 54% to 35%. The Times Poll did not solicit opinions about other measures on the ballot.

Susan Pinkus, the acting director of The Times Poll, cautioned that the survey clearly illustrates how little voters really know about the propositions, and that last-minute campaigning could cause broad fluctuations before Tuesday.

More than four out of five registered voters, for example, initially said they did not know enough about the open primary measure to come to a decision. They gave the measure passing marks only after it was described to them by the poll takers.

“There is a large unaware voter population for the propositions on Tuesday’s ballot,” Pinkus said, characterizing the polling numbers as “soft.”

The poll also demonstrated how a measure not due to be on the ballot until November has dominated political discourse this year: The anti-affirmative action initiative has overwhelming public support, with majorities of every political ideology, including liberals.

The only inroad that its opponents seem to have made is to slightly lessen the percentage who “strongly” favor the initiative, a group that still includes two out of five California voters.

The Times Poll surveyed 1,337 Californians, including 1,071 registered voters, by telephone March 13-17. Of those, 495 were determined to be likely voters for Tuesday’s primary. The margin of sampling error for registered voters is 3 percentage points in either direction. For likely voters, it is 4 points in either direction.

Political observers have worried this year that voters were not clued in to the early primary, which was moved up from June, and that they were unaware of pressing matters on the ballot. The poll results suggest that those concerns were warranted.

The poll chose four propositions for voters to consider:

* Proposition 198 would allow voters to vote for any candidate in the primary. This system would replace the current one in which Democrats vote for Democrats, Republicans for Republicans, and so on. Proponents say it would help elect more moderate candidates; the political parties oppose it on the grounds that it threatens the party structures.

* Proposition 200 would create a no-fault car insurance system in which almost all lawsuits would be barred. A driver’s insurance company would cover his or her injuries. Proponents argue that this would lower insurance rates; opponents say it would limit motorists’ rights to sue for damages and would hurt the poor, who would be required to buy insurance in order to register their car. (The state’s insurance requirement is now largely unenforced.)

* Proposition 202 would press for early settlements in civil lawsuits and would cap lawyers’ fees at 15% when their cases are settled quickly. Proponents, aiming at politically influential trial lawyers, say it would improve the court system; opponents say it would put undue pressure on plaintiffs to settle, particularly in cases of defective products.

* Proposition 203 would authorize $3 billion in school bonds to help allay a $7-billion backlog in school construction and repair projects.

To take an accurate picture of voter sentiments, The Times Poll first asked voters if they had heard of each proposition. Then voters were read a nonpartisan summary of the measure and asked how they would vote.

The answers to the first set of questions underscored the fuzziness of voters’ perceptions. Fully 82% said they did not know enough about the open primary measure to render a decision. Sixty-eight percent did not know enough about the school bond proposition. The no-fault measure was unknown to 43%, and the lawyers’ fee proposal was a mystery to 54%.

The latter measures were undoubtedly better known because of the high-profile ad campaigns waged by proponents and opponents. That was not the only evidence that the campaigns were bearing some fruit.

According to the poll, registered voters who said they like Ralph Nader, the best-known opponent of measures 200 and 202, were more likely to agree with him than people who dislike him.

Only 29% of those who like Nader, for instance, favor Proposition 200, while 43% of those who do not like Nader support the proposition. Forty-three percent of those who like Nader also support Proposition 202, while 57% of those who do not like him favor the measure.

In general, women were more strongly in favor of the open primary and school bond issues, and men were somewhat more likely to support the no-fault and lawyers’ fee proposals.

The school bond issue results also showed why bonds are notoriously difficult to push through. The measure was highly popular among voters age 18 to 29, with 72% favoring it. But only 50% of those over age 65, who are more dependable voters than the young, supported it.

The findings regarding the anti-affirmative action measure were far more clear-cut and make it obvious that opponents have a rough road ahead.

Sixty-six percent of voters favored the measure, which would outlaw the use of race or gender in public employment, school admissions or contracting, among other things. Twenty-two percent opposed it.

Of those, 45% said they “strongly favor” the measure, down slightly from the 51% who shared that sentiment in a Times poll last September. On the other hand, the percentage who strongly oppose the measure also shrank slightly, from 17% to 13%.

Support for the measure, known as the “California civil rights initiative” to its proponents, was evident across the board.

Democrats endorsed it by 55% to 30%, independents by 62% to 30% and Republicans by 80% to 10%. Among liberals, it had 51%-34% approval, while moderates supported it 64% to 24% and conservatives backed it 80% 11%. It was supported by 72% of men and 61% of women. And among voters age 18 to 29, 76% supported it, compared to 59% of those age 65 and over.

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Key Propositions

Among likely California voters, if the election were held today, Propositions 198 and 203 would win and Proposition 200 would lose. Proposition 202, though favored, would lack the majority to pass. But many voters still have only a vague understanding of these initiatives and the numbers may be fluid.

* Proposition 198, which would allow voters to vote across party lines in primary elections:

For: 55%

Against: 29%

Don’t Know: 16%

* Proposition 200, which would establish a no-fault insurance system for personal injuries resulting from motor vehicle accidents:

For: 37%

Against: 50%

Don’t Know: 13%

* Proposition 202, which would limit lawyers’ fees in personal injury lawsuits when the defendant offers to settle:

For: 45%

Against: 35%

Don’t Know: 20%

* Proposition 203, which would provide $3 billion in bond funds for public education facility improvements:

For: 54%

Against: 35%

Don’t Know: 11%

Source: Los Angeles Times Poll

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How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll contacted 1,337 California adults by telephone from March 13 through March 17. Included in the sample were 1,071 registered voters and 495 likely registered voters. Interviewing was conducted in English and Spanish. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the state. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and unlisted numbers could be contacted. The sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education, region and registration. The margin of sampling error for the total sample and all registered voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points; for likely voters it is 4 points. For certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.