Case May Dent, but Not Derail, GOP Agenda

The indictment of Assemblyman Scott Baugh roiled Republicans in the Statehouse on Friday and threatened to tarnish the reign of Assembly Speaker Curt Pringle, who boosted the candidacy of the freshman lawmaker and has been brushed by the scandal.

How the ballooning probe of election wrongdoing in Orange County will play out in the Capitol is unclear. On Friday, Republicans were rallying around both lawmakers, while Democrats urged Baugh to resign.

Even if Baugh, a Huntington Beach Republican, were to leave office as part of a guilty plea or verdict, both Republicans and Democrats predict that it would not tip the delicate balance of power in the Assembly, which is narrowly divided between the two parties.

But a Baugh resignation could hinder Republican efforts to push through the agenda of conservative, business-oriented policy measures they hope to run on this election year. All bills need 41 votes to pass in the Assembly, and Baugh’s absence would reduce the Republican ranks to 40 members.

“We’re seriously hurt without Baugh,” said one key Republican leader. “We will not have the ability to push our policy agenda.”

Baugh has denied wrongdoing and has vowed to fight the charges.

Another potential loser could be Pringle. If he is drawn in deeper, it could pull Pringle’s attention away from his GOP leadership duties, among them crafting campaign strategy and fund-raising. Some Republican campaign donors are privately expressing concern to GOP lawmakers about the investigation hurting the party.

Republican Gov. Pete Wilson said he continues to support Pringle.

“We are not commenting on the announcement by the Orange County district attorney’s office,” said Wilson spokesman Sean Walsh. “We do not expect this to impact Speaker Pringle. He continues to lead the Assembly and move the governor’s legislative package forward.”

Political analysts say that if Pringle becomes a GOP campaign liability as Republicans battle to keep control of the Assembly this pivotal election year, he might be pressured to step down from the speakership he has held since January.

“I would not want to be Curt Pringle right now with everything on his plate plus worrying about how this is going to come down,” said Sherry Bebitch Jeffe, a political analyst at the Claremont Graduate School. “It’s like a mini-version of what Bill Clinton is experiencing this election year with Whitewater.”

Others, however, said Pringle will survive.

“The Assembly Republicans made their beds,” said Tony Quinn, a GOP political analyst. “They knew this was a problem when they elected Curt Pringle. I don’t think that caucus is going to ask him to resign.”

Pringle’s staff said he received numerous calls Friday from colleagues expressing their support.

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“This is a difficult situation for one member of our caucus, therefore it’s a difficult situation for our entire caucus, mostly on a personal level,” Pringle said.

The speaker added that he expects the Democrats to make Baugh’s indictment an issue in the fall campaigns, but does not foresee problems for his speakership. “What I will be judged on is the performance of the Assembly and the agenda that moves forward,” Pringle said. The Baugh case “will not affect the direction we’re going or the policy.”

Republicans are largely pleased with Pringle’s leadership so far, and their faith did not seem to be shaken after Baugh’s indictment and allegations that the speaker had a say in the ploy to put a ringer Democrat on the ballot.

“I support Curt, and I have to believe everyone in this caucus supports him,” said Assemblyman Bernie Richter (R-Chico).

“No one likes this kind of politics, but we’re dealing with allegations here rather than proven facts,” said Assemblyman Brooks Firestone (R-Los Olivos). “Curt has done so many good things to clean up the Assembly. It’s approximating a legislative body, not a dictatorship, now.”

Republicans were also rallying around Baugh, who arrived in the Capitol this year and cast the pivotal vote to help make Pringle the first GOP speaker in a quarter-century elected with his own party’s support.

“I’ve come to know Scott and I can’t believe he was anything but a victim of not knowing the campaign laws,” said Assemblyman Brett Granlund (R-Yucaipa). “Campaign laws are tough, they’re tough and complex.”

Democrats were hardly so charitable. Assemblywoman Diane Martinez (D-Monterey Park) said Baugh should resign his Assembly seat and not wait for the case against him to conclude.

“I don’t care if a member is a Republican or a Democrat,” she said. “If they’ve been indicted, it’s unethical for them to keep their seat. The public deserves for them to take the high road and leave gracefully.”

Martinez said Republicans began “laying the foundation” earlier this week for a possible indictment of Baugh when the Assembly changed its internal voting rules so Pringle could remain speaker even if the Republicans lost Baugh. That maneuver, along with the creation this week of an Assembly Ethics Committee, had no business taking place with Baugh’s indictment pending, she said.

Democratic leaders acknowledge that even a Baugh resignation would not provide the numerical boost they need to seize power this year because several Assembly Democrats are expected to vacate their seats in upcoming special elections and move on to higher office.

Baugh’s first test of support is likely to come Tuesday when he faces two opponents in the GOP primary election. Although his opponents have hammered him about the investigation, he has the backing of a powerful Republican political machine.

His two Republican opponents are underfunded. Moreover, Baugh has taken steps to try to turn voters in his district against Dist. Atty. Michael Capizzi, who is pushing the case against the embattled assemblyman.

“An indictment is not an automatic death penalty with voters,” said Dan Wooldridge, an Orange County political consultant. “Given his tremendous financial investment in buying name identification, I think Scott remains the odds-on favorite.”

One person taking particular pleasure Friday in the plight of Baugh and Pringle was former Assemblywoman Doris Allen.

The Cypress Republican enraged GOP colleagues last year by striking a deal with the Democrats to become speaker without any Republican support.

She was ousted from office by GOP forces led by Pringle in a Nov. 28 recall election and replaced by Baugh.

“I feel that it’s all finally coming full circle,” Allen said. “The way these guys in Orange County do business--playing political games and shaving corners--was the reason I took the speakership. I’m very, very, very, very relieved that there’s going to be justice.”

Times staff writer Max Vanzi contributed to this story.