Fontana a Window on Dole’s Potential Audience in State

Four years ago, Joe Johnson pulled the lever for George Bush in the 1992 presidential race. But if he had to choose today between President Clinton and Sen. Bob Dole, Johnson says he’d stick with Clinton, even though he considers himself a committed Republican.

“Dole seems kind of old and doddering,” said Johnson, an environmental consultant. “He doesn’t instill any confidence in me.”

Steelworker Julian Rodriguez is moving in the opposite direction. In 1992, he supported Clinton, but now Rodriguez is disappointed by the tax increase the president included in his 1993 budget and his record on social issues, especially abortion.

“I’m going to go for Dole,” Rodriguez said. “I think values are going down in this country, and he might bring them back up again. Clinton is, like, anti-Christian.”

Public opinion polls now give Clinton a commanding advantage over Dole--as much as 21 percentage points in a recent Times survey in California, the richest electoral prize in next fall’s election. But a day of conversations with some three dozen people in Fontana this weekend showed that the race in California could become much more competitive--if Dole is willing to invest the time and money needed to reach voters who now view him as a politician with too many years and too few ideas.

Like the polls, the interviews in this city about one hour east of Los Angeles show that Clinton is benefiting from a broad level of satisfaction with his performance, a generally improving outlook on the economy and a striking absence of enthusiasm for Dole, the 72-year-old presumptive GOP nominee.

But the conversations also suggest that Clinton’s advantage is not set in stone. Far more people praised Clinton for his efforts than his achievements. Several derided both parties and continued to express interest in Texas billionaire Ross Perot, who could again scramble the race with an independent bid. And, most important, Dole’s weak standing appears to owe less to fully formed judgments than to his failure so far to communicate a message that would overshadow the one fact about him that voters consistently raise in conversation: his age.

Some now unenthusiastic about Dole, like Johnson, clearly remain open to the conservative themes on taxes, welfare reform and especially illegal immigration that powered Pete Wilson’s gubernatorial victory in 1994 and could become pillars of Dole’s fall campaign here as well. “If Dole started leaning more toward those views,” Johnson said, “I’d support him more.”

Such comments frame the difficult strategic choice California presents for Dole. The interviews here point to a potential audience for Dole much larger than the polls now imply, but they also show that the Senate majority leader would have to put considerable effort into filling out his indistinct image and convert voters who now see Clinton as a moderate who has worked hard and compiled an acceptable record.

This city of 108,000 people offers a revealing window on the challenge confronting Dole in California. Fontana is packed with the two sorts of swing voters who decide most elections, not only in California but around the nation.

In the weathered homes that line the streets north of Interstate 10, the city is filled with working-class families who live from paycheck to paycheck in blue-collar jobs across the Inland Empire.

Across the freeway is Southridge Village, a sprawling subdivision on the city’s southern tip seemingly constructed of equal parts sunshine and stucco. Here, the winding avenues and cul-de-sacs are crowded with young, squarely middle-class families lured by average housing prices a fraction of those in Los Angeles and Orange counties. The cars in Southridge Village are generally newer than those north of I-10, but they are Fords and Chevys and minivans, not the Lexuses or BMWs adorning suburban driveways closer to the coastline.

Four years ago, a Times reporter who spent several weeks talking to voters on both sides of the freeway found a pervasive sense of economic anxiety and a broadly agreed-upon verdict that then-President Bush had lost touch with the nation. Those assessments foreshadowed Clinton’s victory that fall.

No such common judgment emerged from conversations this weekend. This year, the political currents in Fontana appear more fluid--with no single dominant issue and opinions sharply diverging on Clinton, Dole and the state of the nation as well.

At a Little League field in Southridge Village, several voters expressed anxiety about the economy and concerns about crime vividly symbolized by the sprouting of gang graffiti in some of the development’s neighborhoods. But it was also common to hear notes of optimism there about the country’s direction. “The economy is thriving,” said Carter Martin, a Los Angeles County sheriff’s deputy.

But in the dusty aisles of the Bel-Air Swap Meet--where men and women picked over tools and toys, old eight-track tapes and auto parts, and even surprisingly elegant lawn sculptures constructed out of chicken wire--some bristled over their continuing inability to get ahead, even in an economy that appears to be recovering.

“You are looking at a person who gets paid very little money, pays very much in taxes and won’t ever be able to buy a home,” said Lynette Hickman of Alta Loma, who recently took a 5% pay cut at her job at a health insurance company.

Warren Williams, a diesel mechanic from Fontana, virtually bit off his words with rage when asked about the men seeking the White House. “I’d like to see us freeze their bank accounts, and make them go out and try to buy a house on $4.25 an hour,” he said.

Among those less disaffected from both parties, the general tenor of comments was warmer toward Clinton than Dole. Dole, however, could take heart from voters like Barry Jansen, who knew little about the senator but disliked Clinton’s gun-control proposals, or Kelly Acosta, a mother of three in Southridge, angry over illegal immigration.

“I’d support anybody who could fix something like that,” she said.

Most of those who disliked Clinton four years ago remain unpersuaded, and some new critics have joined their ranks. But like Joe Johnson, some voters who opposed Clinton in 1992 said they have been pleasantly surprised by his performance. “He has been more moderate than I thought,” said Kirk Weakly, a postal supervisor who supported Perot in 1992 but says he would probably vote for Clinton today.

By far, Clinton’s strongest card was the belief that he’s trying to improve conditions for ordinary Americans, even if he hasn’t always succeeded. “I think he’s trying very hard,” said Chris Collins of Riverside as she paused in front of a mat splayed with used drill bits at the swap meet. “He’s not JFK, but no one else will be either.”

Such attitudes are only one of several large hurdles confronting Dole on both sides of the freeway. So far, he has inspired almost no passion: Even the most partisan Republicans seemed much more enthusiastic about defeating Clinton than electing Dole.

Hardly anyone interviewed said they knew what Dole might seek to accomplish as president. Though a loyal Republican, Carter Martin said Dole’s “platform is kind of weak” and overly focused on balancing the federal budget, rather than issues like improving the schools. “We haven’t had a balanced budget for so many years--what’s the emergency now?”

In the absence of any ideological or issue profile, Dole has been defined for many of these voters primarily by his age. Concern about Dole’s age bubbled up unprompted from Republicans, Democrats and independents alike. Some said they worried not only about his health and endurance, but whether Dole was too rooted in the past to govern a country hurtling through such rapid change.

“I believe he is too old to understand the modern problems today,” said Rudy Fajardo, a middle-aged car salesman from Mira Loma. “I don’t want my grandpa telling me what to do.”

Yet Fajardo, who voted for Clinton in 1992 and has little complaint about the president’s performance, nonetheless says he would vote for Perot in 1996 “to break the two-party system.” Such evanescent loyalties are becoming a hallmark of American politics--and the central reason why even a candidate as strong in California as Clinton can’t yet put the state in the bank.