Turnout of 42% Expected for 1st March Primary

California’s first-ever March presidential primary campaign ended Monday with little excitement or suspense--except for the margin of Kansas Republican Sen. Bob Dole’s expected victory. But hundreds of other candidates and issues face voters today in congressional, state and local balloting.

Secretary of State Bill Jones estimated that about 7 million Californians would cast ballots at 23,332 polling places today, a projected turnout of about 42% of all registered voters. That would be a near-record low.

The polls are open from 7 a.m. until 8 p.m. statewide.

A dozen propositions await voters, including measures that would call for a no-fault car insurance plan, allow hunting of mountain lions, and authorize a school bond issue. In Los Angeles County, Dist. Atty. Gil Garcetti is seeking reelection against five opponents who have faulted him for his office’s handling of the O.J. Simpson murder trial.

Dole, the Senate majority leader who returned to Kansas on Monday after stumping California for three days, told a rally during a nostalgic visit to his hometown of Russell: “I have come here to celebrate dreams that have come true.”

Dole had held off claiming the nomination until he won California’s 165 delegates, although most counts had him clinching it a week ago. Buchanan conceded again on Monday that Dole had won the nomination and said he would be pleased to get 25% of the vote in California, even less than he won against then-President Bush in the 1992 California primary.

There was still talk of a potential third-party contest by Buchanan in the general election, but Buchanan told reporters during a visit to the San Diego site of the 1996 Republican convention: “My hope is to stay inside the party and help defeat President Clinton.”

Clinton, meanwhile, got an early election-year bonus on Monday: endorsement of his candidacy by the AFL-CIO, at a special convention called in Washington, D.C., despite protests by some union leaders over the administration’s support for NAFTA, the 1993 free trade agreement with Mexico and Canada.

The lack of drama in the California primary is one reason for the glum voter-turnout forecast, Jones said. Another is that state voters are accustomed to having their primary the first week in June.

This year’s primary was moved up by six weeks in an attempt to give California more clout in the presidential nominating process. That ploy largely was foiled when other states made their primaries even earlier, allowing Dole to win enough delegates to clinch the GOP presidential nomination a week ago.

Even though California did not get to play the pivotal role it had sought, Jones said today’s results will be analyzed by experts for signs of what they may portend for the fall.

These would include Dole’s expected margin of victory and the drawing power of consumer activist Ralph Nader, who is on the Green Party ballot for president but also seeking write-in votes from Democrats and Republicans.

The size of the GOP turnout for Dole could be a sign of voter enthusiasm for his campaign to wrest the White House from Clinton, Jones said. A low turnout would tend to boost Buchanan’s percentage, experts said, because conservatives generally are more diligent about going to the polls than moderates.

Clinton’s prospects for winning reelection may hinge on carrying California in November and getting the state’s 54 electoral votes, one-fifth the 270 needed to win the presidency.

The winner of today’s GOP primary wins the support of all 165 of California’s delegates to the Republican national convention.

All voters will decide on a dozen ballot propositions, including five placed there by initiative petition campaigns. The measure that potentially affects the most Californians is Proposition 200, which would institute a no-fault auto insurance program.

Under the no-fault system, a driver’s insurance company would pay for all vehicle damages or medical costs of its customers, regardless of who was to blame for the accident. The plan would virtually eliminate lawsuits stemming from highway accidents.

The costliest and most contentious campaigns have been waged over Proposition 200 and two other initiatives that seek changes in the civil court system and limits on lawyers’ contingency fees. An estimated $20 million has been spent in the campaigns for and against Propositions 200, 201 and 202.

The ballot issues also include two major bond proposals: Proposition 192, to authorize the state to sell $2 billion in bonds for earthquake reinforcement of bridges throughout the state; and Proposition 203, approving the sale of $3 billion in bonds for construction and renovation of public schools and college and university buildings.

And today, California voters will experience for the first time the full impact of the ballot initiative passed in 1990 that sets strict term limits for all state legislators.

In the 80-seat Assembly, 25 members are completing their third two-year terms since 1990 and are barred from reelection. In the Senate, where half of the 40 seats are at stake this year, 10 senators were “termed-out,” as Sacramento lingo describes it.

In the race for Los Angeles County district attorney, Garcetti needs more than 50% of the vote to win reelection without a runoff in the nonpartisan contest. Also on the county ballot are three supervisorial seats and several legislative contests.

Developments in the last week focused attention on two Republican Assembly primary contests: those of Assemblyman Scott R. Baugh (R-Huntington Beach) in Orange County and former Assembly Speaker Brian Setencich in Fresno.

Baugh was indicted Friday by an Orange County grand jury on four felony counts and 18 misdemeanors stemming from his election last November to succeed recalled Assemblywoman Doris Allen. Baugh professed his innocence and said the charges were politically motivated. Baugh’s victory finally allowed Republicans to win control of the Assembly. In today’s GOP primary, he faces Cypress City Councilwoman Cecilia L. Age and Barbara A. Coe.

Setencich, who briefly succeeded Allen as speaker of the Assembly, largely with Democratic votes, has become the target of the official Republican Party. In a rare move, state party Chairman John Herrington sent a letter to 20,000 of Setencich’s constituents calling for his defeat and claiming that Setencich was “a Republican in name only.” Setencich faces political newcomer Robert M. Prenter Jr. of Hanford.

By the final hours of the presidential primary campaign, as many Californians focused their attention on the Academy Awards ceremony, Dole and Buchanan already had left the state.

Dole left Sunday--ending a three-day tour in which he renewed his vow to conduct a vigorous general election campaign against Clinton in the fall.

Buchanan said he will remain in the contest even though he acknowledges that Dole will be the Republican nominee, and he once again stressed his opposition to abortion, which has been at the core of his campaign.

Republican voters in California will find nine GOP candidates for president on their ballot. Because the ballots were printed in February, the list contains several candidates who were active then--Steve Forbes and Lamar Alexander, for example--but who have since dropped out.

Clinton’s only opponent is perennial candidate Lyndon H. LaRouche Jr.

Voters registered in five other officially recognized parties in California will have their own ballots for their parties’ nominees.

But there still is no presidential candidate from the Reform Party, created by billionaire businessman Ross Perot and qualified for the California ballot during a voter-registration blitz last fall.

Perot has said the Reform Party will nominate a presidential candidate at a convention this September.

Dole had asked Perot to remain out of the fall election campaign, but Perot, in television interviews Monday, said that fielding a major new party in the United States was “an idea whose time has come.”

Republicans fear that a third-party candidacy by either Buchanan or Perot would hurt Dole’s chances of defeating Clinton.

Times staff writers Stephen Braun in San Diego and Maria LaGanga in Russell, Kan., contributed to this story.