Campbell Has Slight Lead in 71st Assembly District

Businessman Bill Campbell clung to a 635-vote lead over developer and chief rival Jim Beam in the 71st Assembly District GOP primary, but the outcome of the race may not be decided until the middle of next week, when all the ballots are finally counted.

Campbell received 19,798 votes (40.2%) to Beam’s 19,163 (39%), according to the Orange County registrar of voters’ tally released Wednesday. Three runners-up split about 20% of the vote.

The winner faces Democrat Jack Roberts, who faced no opposition in his primary.

The 71st Assembly District seat is being vacated by Assemblyman Mickey Conroy (R-Orange), who is stepping down because of term limits and is running for county supervisor.

The district encompasses Mission Viejo, Villa Park, Rancho Santa Margarita, Coto de Caza and Trabuco Hills, as well as most of Orange and Lake Forest. Small parts of San Juan Capistrano, Irvine, Anaheim, Santa Ana and Tustin also are in the district.

Beam, 61, estimated that of the more than 40,000 absentee ballots yet to be counted Wednesday, more than 7,000 could affect the 71st Assembly race and send him leaping in front of Campbell.

But Mark Thompson, Campbell’s consultant, vehemently disagreed.

“The race is over,” Thompson said.

Thompson based his analysis on his own surveys, saying that during Tuesday’s voting, “we beat him by almost six votes per precinct.” He said that if voter turnout had ended up higher than a disappointing 31.7%, “we would have beaten Beam by more than 3,000 votes.”

Nevertheless, Beam predicted he still has a chance to win. He, like Campbell, spent about $300,000 in running what both candidates called a contentious but remarkably clean campaign.

“Two independent surveys indicated that with a voter turnout of 51%, I would win by 11 [percentage] points,” said Beam, who lives in Orange and develops medical facilities for a living. “The same survey said that with a turnout of 41%, I would win by nine points. But with a turnout of 31%, I was projected to lose by two points. Many of those remaining ballots are bound to be mine.”

Campbell, on the other hand, is so confident of victory that he spent Wednesday in Sacramento with Assembly Speaker Curt Pringle (R-Garden Grove), getting “oriented” to the day he takes office, Thompson said. Campbell, 51, who holds a graduate degree in business from Harvard University, owns 12 area Taco Bell franchises and lives in Villa Park.