Only El Toro Neighbors Strongly Opposed Airport

By RENE LYNCH

April 12, 1996 12 AM PT

TIMES STAFF WRITER

SANTA ANA —

When it came right down to it, only the people living nearest the El Toro Marine Corps Air Station turned out in heavy numbers to vote against a proposed civilian airport at the base, according to a breakdown of the March 26 election.

A city-by-city analysis released Thursday shows that Measure S, which aimed to halt the airport plan, received the largest margin in the seven cities clustered around the base and in unincorporated Orange County, where many residents feared an airport’s noise and traffic.

But Measure S lost miserably in the 24 cities farther from the base--even in San Juan Capistrano and San Clemente, where strong support for the measure had been expected. A huge voter turnout in South County was critical if Measure S stood a chance of winning: North County voters outnumber South County voters nearly 3 to 1.

Measure S aimed to repeal Measure A, which in 1994 endorsed an airport at El Toro once the military left as part of the nation’s base closure effort. The anti-airport measure was soundly defeated last month, 59.6% to 40.4%.

Countywide, voter turnout was 43.3%, but turnout was higher closest to the base, going as high as 51.4% in Lake Forest and 48.4% in Mission Viejo. The lowest turnout was in Santa Ana, with 33.4%.

“It was a higher turnout relative to the rest of the county, but it just wasn’t enough,” said Irvine Mayor Mike Ward, whose city had a 45.5% turnout. “I was hoping for a turnout of almost 80%. I guess I was being overly optimistic.”

The Measure S defeat does not mean a commercial airport is a certainty as the military prepares to abandon the 4,700-acre military base by 1999. The county is expected to release three proposals today for the base.

At least one proposal will not include an airport.

Measure S was easily the most hotly contested issue on the ballot, but the detailed analysis by the county registrar of voters office shows that a majority of registered voters didn’t bother to vote, making voter apathy the election’s biggest winner.

Some blame it on the fact that the Republican Party’s presidential nomination was all but wrapped up by the time of California’s primary, stripping voters of an incentive to get to the polls.

City voter turnouts for Measure A, for example, which came during a gubernatorial election, ranged from 65% to 70%, said Norm Grossman, a campaign consultant to Taxpayers for Responsible Planning, which placed Measure S on the ballot.

“You’d think in South County, it’s such an important issue, it’s the future of their communities, but it wasn’t enough to get out the vote,” Grossman said.

David Ellis, consultant to Citizens for Jobs and the Economy, the No on Measure S campaign, said county voters saw the issue for what it was--an anti-airport initiative--and voted against it in favor of bringing in thousands of jobs.

Lake Forest was one of the most surprising examples of poor turnout. Residents of the city, which borders the base, were bombarded with mailers, phone calls and door-to-door visits from both sides of the campaign. But turnout in Lake Forest was just 51.4%.

Grossman said he has no regrets about placing the measure on a primary ballot. Given the overwhelming number of voters to the north, Measure S supporters hoped that voter apathy would give them an edge as long as South County voters flocked to the polls.

“That obviously didn’t happen.” Grossman said.

The city-by-city breakdown underscored the geographical divide in the debate over an airport.

“The opponents of the airport were just not able to turn the airport into a regional issue,” said Mark Baldassare, a UC Irvine professor of urban planning who polled residents before the election. “Their arguments never took hold outside the immediate area around the base.”

But Bill Kogerman, co-chairman of Taxpayers for Responsible Planning, didn’t bother to come up with reasons for the low turnout. He just felt misled by the voters who responded positively to Yes on S campaign but apparently never made it to the polls.

“What can I say?” said Kogerman. “They told us they were coming to the polls and they didn’t.”

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

How Measure S Went Down

Voters in the seven South County cities closest to El Toro Marine Corps Air Station supported Measure S by better than 2 to 1. But the vote in the county’s other 24 cities was a mirror opposite. And although turnout was significantly higher in the seven cities, it did not overcome the sheer number of voters elsewhere in the county.

Yes Vote for Measure S

Seven cities: 73%

Other cities: 27

Unincorporated: 61

Countywide: 40

% Total Measure S Votes*

Seven cities: 21%

Other cities: 68

Unincorporated: 11

Turnout Comparison**

Seven cities

Dana Point: 51.7%