Mixed Vote in St. Petersburg Could Bode Ill for Yeltsin

If Monday’s results from the St. Petersburg gubernatorial election are a harbinger of the June 16 Russian presidential vote, Boris N. Yeltsin may be in for a bruising.

St. Petersburg Mayor Anatoly A. Sobchak was expected to ride his reputation as a democratic reformer to a convincing lead over his nearest rivals, but his deputy-turned-challenger made a dramatic rise in popularity to force the contest into a second round.

Sobchak won less than 29% of the vote in the city of 4.5 million that is Russia’s second largest and a market-reform showcase.

Vladimir Yakovlev, his first deputy in the office that will change from mayor to governor with this election, won 22% of the vote despite pollsters’ predictions only a week before the Sunday election that he could count on no more than 7%.

Another strong challenger from among the 18 men who competed for the governorship, human rights activist Yuri Boldyrev, finished third with nearly 17%.

A runoff between Sobchak and Yakovlev will be held Sunday and “may bring in unexpected results,” Electoral Commission Chairman Alexander Garusov said.

Although the St. Petersburg race was among democrats, with the Communist candidate never in contention, Sobchak’s opponents appear to have drawn votes from the incumbent with their accusations of corruption and mismanagement of reforms.

Those same charges are being leveled at Yeltsin by Communist Party leader Gennady A. Zyuganov, as well as by rival democrats who could siphon votes away from the current president.

The surprisingly strong backing for Yakovlev could reflect public disenchantment with the manner in which reform is being carried out in Russia’s biggest cities, which has compounded the resentment of some Russians in the countryside toward a transition they feel has done little to help them.

In an interview on the eve of the election, Sobchak confidently described the St. Petersburg contest as “a dress rehearsal for the future presidential elections.”

Sobchak has actively campaigned for Yeltsin and cast the St. Petersburg race as a kind of litmus test of popular support for reform.

Yakovlev, buoyed by the results of the first round, said voters recognize “the real difference between words and actions.”

“We are waiting for victory, because the city needs freedom, citizenship and peace for normal work,” Yakovlev told the Interfax news agency in St. Petersburg.

Sobchak, in a brief interview with a Moscow radio station, said his confidence in a victory by Yeltsin is unshaken.

“Despite the difficulties that exist, he is certain to gather the votes,” Sobchak predicted, while conceding that Yeltsin might lack support in rural regions and among the disillusioned army.

Yeltsin is currently given a slight advantage over Zyuganov in most opinion polls, but such surveys are notoriously unreliable; many people remain fearful of speaking against those in power.

Polls in St. Petersburg had forecast at least 33% for Sobchak and only 9% for Boldyrev, who was described up until the election as Sobchak’s only serious rival.