Cops and Taxes Are Real Issues in Valley

There’s been a lot of talk about secession, but in the end it’s not the real issue. In many ways it might be just a diversion.

Crime and police protection rank among the most serious issues facing Valley voters and those who seek or hold public office. Unfilled promises and political inaction on providing more police are the forces driving the secessionist movement and the primary reason for our discontent with City Hall. The extent to which the secessionist movement remains relevant will depend largely on what the city does in the very short term to address Valley concerns. And smack in the middle of this would-be tsunami is the April election for mayor and City Council.

As the Valley’s demand for its fair share of city services grows more insistent, the loudest cry is for adequate police protection. But secession advocates are quick to point out that although we all want more cops, we don’t want to send our taxes downtown so the City Council can send the cops elsewhere. (Add “schools, roads and services” where it says “cops,” and you’ve got the constitution of the secession movement.)

Although the secession onramp to Valley politics is clearly marked with “Candidate Turn Here” road signs today, remember that historically, the crime issue has been our blind intersection. Lots of issues capture voters’ attention briefly. But crime and public safety will be the issue again in the spring elections.

To win, a candidate for citywide office must have a credible Valley strategy that addresses our concerns. Why? Because the Valley votes. Big. It always does, even when the rest of the city stays home. Candidates with a Valley base strike fear into the hearts of potential opponents. Let’s face it, no one ever stormed City Hall from San Pedro.

Mayor Richard Riordan’s 1993 campaign promise to deliver a 10,000-strong police force gave him the Valley strategy he needed. Candidate Riordan had the luxury of offering ideas without giving much thought to how to deliver. This time it’s a different story. Incumbent Riordan promised 3,000 new cops. Valley voters should and will ask him where they are.

What candidate Riordan ignored or underestimated is that new cops are expensive and that the city really is, his campaign rhetoric aside, tapped out. So the mayor’s ability to make good on his campaign pledge is riding on a tax increase on the ballot to fund the expanded LAPD.

Promising more police and then making the Valley pay for them places Riordan right square in the Damned If You Do, Damned If You Don’t booth at the San Fernando Valley Fair. In order to keep his promise, the mayor needs the voters to pass a tax increase, taxes the Valley won’t pay.

There is a long history of the Valley rejecting public safety measures based on cost. The Valley was the only area of the city that in 1992 rejected Measure F, the Christopher Commission reforms calling for “community-based” policing, which would have put more cops on the beat. A long list of public safety measures have gone down to stiff opposition in the Valley, especially in the high-turnout, conservative northwest region represented by Councilman Hal Bernson.

Here is where Riordan enters the blind intersection. He has got to get the cops, and so far he hasn’t done it. He will try to shimmy out of the situation by distancing himself from the tax hike he needs. Will it work?

If voters do approve the increase, look for Riordan’s opponent(s) to clobber him for causing a tax increase when the widely held perception is that: (1) Valley taxes will go to fund officers in another part of the city, and (2) new taxes aren’t necessary because there is still plenty of fat--defined as a city service not in my neighborhood--to be cut.

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Ironically, the Republican Riordan has gotten the most help on funding more police from two Democrats: President Clinton, who put 100,000 new cops in the 1994 crime bill, and Rep. Howard Berman (D-Panorama City), a potential opponent who made sure that congressional Republicans didn’t strike the funding for the new cops from the budget.

The Valley has a reputation for being a Republican stronghold. But even though Valley voters tend to be conservative, Democrats hold the edge in registration. Of the Valley’s representatives on the City Council, state Legislature and U.S. Congress, 15 are Democrats and only three are Republicans. Although the mayoral election is officially nonpartisan, Riordan’s main opponent will probably be a Democrat.

No doubt, Riordan will face a well-financed opponent from the San Fernando Valley this time, one with a strong record on crime and fighting for Valley issues. (And he’ll probably face Tom Hayden too.) Unless something serious and credible is accomplished that provides additional police protection, increases public safety and deals with Valley concerns about the cost, the mayor and members of the City Council can expect a bumpy ride on the road to reelection.