Deal Signals New Chinese Stance Toward Clinton

The trade pact reached Monday between the United States and China is the clearest indication so far that the Beijing leadership has decided to try to work with--and maybe even help--the Clinton administration during this election year.

That may sound surprising, given the legacy of friction between President Clinton and China throughout most of Clinton’s term in the White House, as well as the history of amicable ties the Beijing leadership has had with Republican presidents since the days of the Nixon administration.

But over the last two months, the administration has begun to send signals that Clinton would be ready for top-level visits between Washington and Beijing after the 1996 elections. At the same time, Republican presidential candidate Bob Dole appears to have worried the Chinese leadership by talking about new U.S. arms sales to Taiwan and creation of a missile-defense system in Asia.

“The interesting thing is that the Chinese are now dealing, where six or eight months ago they were having nothing to do with” the Clinton administration, said Stanley Roth of the U.S. Institute of Peace, who served until recently on Clinton’s National Security Council. “I think these guys [Chinese leaders] had decided last fall to sit out the year. I don’t think we could have gotten this deal last February.”

Since then, Roth noted, the administration seems to have worked out a China policy with a clear list of priorities. It took a relatively tough stand on Taiwan by dispatching two aircraft carriers to the Taiwan Strait in March. But it took a much softer stand on human rights, by not pushing vigorously before the United Nations Commission on Human Rights in Geneva for adoption of a resolution condemning China.

Moreover, when the relations between Washington and Beijing were at their most tense during the crisis earlier this year over China’s test-firings of missiles in the waters near Taiwan, the administration moved to hold off any imposition of economic sanctions against Beijing in two separate policy areas: arms proliferation and intellectual property.

In February, the administration began weighing whether to penalize China for its sale to Pakistan of technology that could be used in a nuclear weapons program. But Secretary of State Warren Christopher repeatedly postponed action on this issue until May, after the passions in Washington over the Taiwan crisis had subsided.

Then, rather than imposing sanctions permitted under U.S. law, Christopher worked out an agreement with Beijing. The administration said it had received assurances that China would not sell the dangerous technology to Pakistan in the future, although China refused in its public statements to acknowledge that it had made such a promise.

The other area of China policy in which the administration worked slowly and searched for a deal involved intellectual property--specifically, the theft of American copyrights and patents.

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In January, administration officials began warning that they might have to impose sanctions on China for its piracy of American compact discs, movies and computer software. Chinese factories were continuing to churn out pirated CDs despite an explicit 1995 agreement to close down the factories.

Again, the administration delayed action and waited until after the Taiwan passions had subsided. The result was Monday’s deal, in which China agreed to close 15 CD factories and also to step up law enforcement efforts against piracy.

Some China analysts said it was particularly important for the administration to win a broad agreement on intellectual property in which China will do more than merely shut down factories.

“Simply closing some bad guys wasn’t going to provide much satisfaction, because in six months there would be new entrants [new factories] in the Chinese market,” observed Nicholas Lardy, a specialist on the Chinese economy at the Brookings Institution.

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Monday’s deal on intellectual property also helps both the administration and the Beijing leadership in their ongoing efforts to persuade Congress to approve a renewal of China’s most-favored-nation trade benefits, expected to come up for a vote on Capitol Hill soon.

“They [Chinese officials] wanted to get this issue settled, because they didn’t want a trade war and they didn’t want to sour up the atmosphere for MFN,” Eden Woon, executive director of the Washington State China Relations Council, said Monday.

In American elections over the last 25 years, China has often tried to help the incumbent president or his political party keep control of the White House. The trend peaked in 1988, when paramount leader Deng Xiaoping publicly endorsed George Bush for president.

Chinese officials have explained that they think it is better to deal with “the devil you know” than a newcomer in the White House.

Monday’s trade deal clears the way for new efforts by the administration to increase top-level visits and exchanges between the United States and China.

White House National Security Advisor Anthony Lake is expected to travel to Beijing in July in what would be the first such visit since his predecessor, Brent Scowcroft of the Bush administration, toasted Chinese leaders six months after China’s crackdown at Tiananmen Square seven years ago.