Want-Ad Volume Steady, Unemployment Claims Dip
The rate of job growth appears to be steady, according to a private report released Thursday, and 2,000 fewer Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week, the government said.
Economists said the reports, in light of other recent data on the economy, support the view that the Federal Reserve Board will hold interest rates steady at next week’s meeting of its policymaking Federal Open Market Committee.
The Conference Board, a private business-supported research group based in New York, said the help-wanted advertising index fell 2 points in May to 80.0, from a reading of 82.0 in April. The index was at 81 a year ago.
“Want-ad volume is currently at the same level as one year ago,” board economist Ken Goldstein said. “The market has steadied, but at a high level.”
The Conference Board every month surveys help-wanted ad volume in 51 major newspapers nationwide. Because ad volume has proved to be a sensitive indicator of labor market conditions, the measure provides a gauge of change in local, regional or national job supplies, the board said.
In a separate report, the Labor Department said new claims for unemployment insurance fell by 2,000 to 355,000 for the week ended June 22.
“It’s steady as you go on jobless claims,” said Kevin Flanagan, first vice president and money market economist at Dean Witter Reynolds. “The labor force setting has found some stability.”
A decline in overall claims underscored signs of health in the labor market. But the four-week moving average, a closely watched indicator that smooths out weekly fluctuations, edged up slightly, rising to 356,500 for the week ended June 22 from 354,000 for the week before.
“There’s a feeling that we’ve gone through the peak growth period and that we probably are slowing down, but the question is: to what level and how quickly?” said James Glassman, senior economist at Chase Securities Inc.
“Generally, the surprise in recent economic numbers has been that they are a little more on the soft side than the market had expected,” he added. “This is helping to support the view that the Federal Reserve isn’t going to rush to raise interest rates in July.”
The Conference Board said that in the last three months, the volume of help-wanted advertising fell in seven of the nine regions it monitors.
The greatest decreases were in the west north central (down 7.5%) and mountain (down 7.5%) regions. Next were the mid-Atlantic (down 5.7%) and west south central (down 3.6 %).
Separately, a study by Harvard University found that the unprecedented growth in housing construction over the last 15 years will continue for at least another 15.
Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies said the market has been characterized by a high rate of housing affordability and a greater number of racially and ethnically diverse households. It said housing production should average 1.7 million units annually between now and 2010, about the same rate in the years since 1980.
“Although the aging of the baby-boom and baby-bust generations will alter the mix of family types, there will be no dramatic slowdown in housing demand,” said William Apgar, executive director of the Joint Center. The study is produced annually and sponsored by the Ford Foundation.
An increase in Latinos, African Americans and Asian Americans should help household growth average about 1.2 million annually during the 1990s, about the same as during the 1980s, the report said. It said the rise in the numbers of minorities and immigrants will take up the slack in housing demand from the baby boomers, the large group of Americans born between 1946 and 1964.
