The Second Season : Races Really Begin as Surprises Abound

By BOB NIGHTENGALE

July 11, 1996 12 AM PT

TIMES STAFF WRITER

They may have played only the first half of the National League season, but it already promises to be one that will be etched in our memories.

Sure, it’s no surprise that the Atlanta Braves once again have the best record with the top pitching staff in the league.

And is anyone in Southern California even mildly surprised that Dodger catcher Mike Piazza is leading the league in hitting and is on pace to hit 40 homers and drive in 100 runs?

Is anyone in Colorado surprised that the Rockies’ pitching stinks and the hitting is sensational, as long as they are at Coors Field?

All predictable, but still, the first half of the season has been a learning experience.

We had an owner, Marge

Schott, who proved you can lose the right to free speech if you say things stupid enough.

We had a manager, Tom Lasorda, 68, who finally showed his age.

Henry Rodriguez proved that anything can happen if someone is given a chance.

Ellis Burks became the latest player whose career was jump-started at Coors Field.

Felipe Alou is showing us that he may be the best manager in baseball, having led the Montreal Expos to the second-best record in the league.

Rene Lachemann learned that if the Florida Marlins spend $38 million in the off-season and are 14 games behind at the All-Star break, it’s the manager who gets fired.

New York Met shortstop Rey Ordonez showed everyone that he is as good as advertised, but we sure got suckered over the greatness of their pitching staff.

The Cincinnati Reds learned that with Davey Johnson no longer managing, they are just another team.

We found out that there’s nothing wrong with San Diego as a baseball town, as long as the Padres field a competitive team.

We also realize that the more we think we know in this game, the less we actually know.

We have no better idea now than in spring training whether the Dodgers can beat the Braves for the National League pennant.

We have no idea whether the next commissioner will be Bud Selig, Tom Lasorda or Albert Belle.

We think there finally is a candidate to unseat Greg Maddux as the reigning Cy Young winner, but then again, no one’s willing to rule Maddux out.

We believe that Barry Larkin has no chance to repeat as the league MVP, but Jeff Bagwell could win the award for the second time in three years.

Actually, the only thing we’re certain of is that for the first time since 1993, the season will be played in its entirety.

We think.

WHO WILL STAY HOT?

--Piazza. The MVP award winner in the All-Star game smells his first batting title and a pay raise that could make him one of the richest men in Southern California.

--Bagwell. The Houston first baseman may keep Piazza from a clean sweep of batting honors this year.

--Eric Young. Colorado’s hitting star would love to make the Dodgers look silly by vying for the batting title. They gave him up in the expansion draft in 1992.

--Atlanta Braves. They have shown no signs of a letdown, despite the loss of All-Star right fielder David Justice for the season.

--Montreal Expos. They were the surprise of the first half and with center fielder Rondell White due back this month, they could still win the wild-card race.

--Todd Worrell. He could save 40 games for the Dodgers.

--The Dodgers. They could still put the division race away by Labor Day.

WHO WILL COOL OFF?

--The Padres. Does anyone really think they can stay in first place with Tony Gwynn out until perhaps September? They are 17-4 without Gwynn, but how much longer can that last? And they will play 25 of 31 games on the road from Aug. 5 to Sept. 8.

--Pitcher John Smoltz of the Braves. It was a nice first half, but he won’t match Denny McLain’s 30-win season.

--Catcher Todd Hundley of the Mets. The kid has 23 home runs. He won’t get to 30.

--Outfielder Rodriguez of Montreal. The castoff made the Dodgers look silly for three months, amassing 25 homers and 70 RBIs, but to expect him to have three more months like that is absurd.

--Relief pitcher Ricky Bottalico of the Philadelphia Phillies. He has 20 saves but how can anyone expect the Phillies to win 20 more games?

--Shortstop Mark Grudzielanek of Montreal. He had 117 hits the first half. We’re still trying to figure that out.

--The Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates. They hung for the first half. They’ll be eliminated by Labor Day.

--The Colorado Rockies. Their pitching staff will disintegrate by the time school starts.

WHO WILL GET HOT?

--Maddux. Do you think this guy will look human the entire season? He may be 9-6 after going an entire month without a victory, but with Eddie Perez as his personal catcher, he has begun to look like the Maddux of old.

--Houston Astros. They’re expecting closer John Hudek back next week. If he’s sound, they could run away with the Central Division title.

--Lasorda. He’ll be seething if doctors don’t let him go back to work soon.

--Rickey Henderson. The Padre leadoff hitter is batting only .235, but with a league-leading 79 walks, he still is one of the game’s best and will only improve.

--Ismael Valdes. The Dodger pitcher won nine games, and could have won 12 or 13. He could run off a string off six or seven.

--Tony Gwynn. When he returns from the Padres’ disabled list, he could make a run at another batting title.

--Dodger President Peter O’Malley, who will be boiling if Selig is named commissioner.

DON’T BE SURPRISED IF:

--Lasorda announces that this is his final season.

--Bill Russell is named the next Dodger manager.

--Maddux comes back and wins his fifth consecutive Cy Young Award.

--Lee Smith is traded again.

--The Reds, realizing they’re not going anywhere, start a fire sale.

--Piazza wins the MVP award and gets a multiyear contract that makes him the first $10-million baseball player.

--John Boles does not return as manager of the Florida Marlins.

--Ordonez is named rookie of the year, ending the Dodgers’ four-year reign.