Summer School Lessons

With the prestige pictures of autumn and the holidays about to land, movie executives are trying to draw some final lessons from the vexing summer of ’96.

It was a 17-week moviegoing period that featured huge blockbusters and ticket sales up 1% over last year, yet suffered an Olympic-sized box-office flameout from which the industry still hasn’t fully recovered.

It was a tough time for numerous family films (anybody actually see “Flipper,” “The Adventures of Pinocchio,” “Alaska” or “The Stupids”?) and a mixed one for star vehicles (the disappointing “Cable Guy,” “Striptease” and “Jack” were balanced by the success of “Nutty Professor” and “Mission: Impossible”). The biggest stars, however, were the special effects of “Independence Day” and “Twister.”

And in a bit of counterintuitive thinking, Hollywood-style, the concept that small-budget films are riskier than big-budget ones was reinforced.

So exactly what lessons were learned depend, of course, upon whom you ask. And nobody knows if any of this will even apply next summer, with the “Jurassic Park” sequel and a bulging pack of “event” films already scrambling studio plans.

Martin Schafer, president of Castle Rock Entertainment, says he’s learned to resist the temptation of some kid-friendly films.

“The death of the family movie--that is the footnote for summer ‘96,” he said. “We had a beautiful film this summer called ‘Alaska.’ It cost $18 million and by any standard was extremely well-made for that price . . . a beautiful family film. Then you see other films like ‘Kazaam,’ ‘Carpool,’ ‘Matilda,’ ‘Harriet’ and ‘Flipper’ tank. Even ‘A Very Brady Sequel,’ which opened to strong critical reviews and followed the success of a previous hit, fell short.

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“I guess the only thing anyone in this business can think is that parents are hypocritical when they demand kid movies but don’t take their kids to see them,” he added. “I’m sad to say this, but I will certainly think 17 times before I make another ‘Alaska.’ ”

Even Disney’s animated “Hunchback of Notre Dame,” which has taken in $97 million domestically, didn’t come close to the studio’s earlier animated blockbusters, such as “The Lion King” and “Aladdin.”

Bill Mechanic, president of 20th Century Fox, who hails from Disney and knows the genre inside out, saw the demise of traditional family fare coming.

“We made a strategic move to get out of the kid movie business as we’ve known it, a year ago,” said Mechanic, whose studio released the summer’s biggest blockbuster, “Independence Day.” “Kid-oriented movies have been in trouble. [PG-13-rated] ‘Nutty Professor’ and ‘Independence Day’ have become the kid movies, the new family films. . . .

“ ‘ID4’ worked this summer because it was fresh, something different. But if you look at the action genre overall, what you learned from this summer was that it needs reinvention. You can’t get away with just explosions and a big action star anymore. Look at ones that didn’t work as well as they would have in summers past.”

A prime example is Arnold Schwarzenegger’s costly “Eraser,” which finally cracked $100 million at the box office this week--its 13th week in theaters. By comparison, Nicolas Cage and Sean Connery’s “The Rock” and Tom Cruise’s “Mission: Impossible” hit nine figures much quicker.

But all three of these star-studded action films were outdone by two films with far lower star wattage.

“I don’t want to overstate the obvious, but there’s a reason why ‘Twister,’ which was first out, and ‘ID4’ did well,” Mechanic said. “Special effects was the star.”

And now, he says, Hollywood will have to keep upping the ante in that realm as well. But such hefty spending makes pictures more, not less, appealing to produce, according to some in the industry.

“Except for the interruption of the Olympics midstream, a little armchair analysis would probably leave you with this: It is less risky to make five $80-million-plus pictures than five $20-million pictures,” said Craig Jacobson of the entertainment law firm of Hansen, Jacobson, Teller & Hoberman, which represents several top Hollywood clients.

“Now that you’ve caught your breath try and understand the reasoning: Maybe the potential loss is so much less on a smaller-budget picture, but the hunger for movie spectacular is so much greater.

“Summer ’96 was a high-stakes poker game. The winners were pretty much all big rolls of the dice, really not a modestly priced picture in that group. And success at that price raises the fear in this business to an entirely different level,” Jacobson said.

For years, Warner Bros. has resisted shifting to lower-budget productions, continuing to pump out pricey, fanfare productions--a strategy that led to the success this summer of “Twister” (co-produced with Universal), “A Time to Kill” and “Tin Cup.”

“We had a lot of balls in the air this summer and we were lucky that most of them worked,” said Barry Reardon, head of Warners’ distribution. “Despite what some people may think, we’ve always been in that $80-million range [for major releases] simply because it has worked big time for us.”

Warners was the only studio that wasn’t pummeled by the Olympics, thanks to “A Time to Kill”--which opened the second weekend of the Games--and Kevin Costner’s “Tin Cup.”

Despite its success, “Tin Cup” producer Gary Foster felt the Olympic pressure. “Absolutely . . . I was very nervous” about the movie being pushed from its original July 3 release to Aug. 9 and eventually to Aug. 16--after the Games. “Traditionally,” he said, “August hasn’t been the best month to release movies. But I was hoping this film, which had a sports theme, could ride the crest of the Olympics’ spirit. I won’t kid you though. . . . I was scared.”

Mechanic said moviegoers simply got out of the moviegoing mood when the Olympics rolled around. “There’s some truth to that,” Reardon added, “but let’s face it. This summer was definitely frontloaded. And when the Olympics come up again I guarantee you there will be plenty of counterprogramming to deal with it.”

So what’s the forecast for next summer’s strategy? Ask producer Mark Gordon, who rolled out the 1994 sleeper hit “Speed” and who is working on Paramount’s “The Flood,” an action-thriller starring Christian Slater, Morgan Freeman, Randy Quaid and Minnie Driver, planned for next summer. The budget is said to be between $60 million and $70 million.

“I know what people are saying but I don’t look around at the trends now and build my picture from there. It doesn’t mean anything,” Gordon said. “It comes down to simply telling the best story you can for the best price you can. That’s the real economics.”

Gordon is not involved with Fox’s “Speed” sequel, also due out next summer. While the original cost about $30 million to make, studio sources say the follow-up will run more than $100 million.

At that price, is it really worth making, especially with Keanu Reeves being replaced in the lead role by Jason Patric? “There’s less of a chance making this $100-million movie, or whatever the budget may end up being, than taking a risk on another $100-million movie,” said Tom Sherak, senior executive vice present for Fox Filmed Entertainment. “You know with Jan De Bont, who is not only the director of both, but ‘Twister’ as well, you’ve got a pretty bankable property.

“Understand, we are in a business that’s in free-fall,” he added. “There have been too many movies that cost too much for the kind of competition they’ve been facing. But even if we make few movies, that doesn’t necessarily mean they are going to work. Next summer will tell a different story, no doubt.”